Canadian by-elections, 2017 (next event: Calgary-Lougheed, AB prov.: Dec 14)

[mileslunn]

Saskatoon Fairview by-election set for Sept 7.

Was a very marginal Saskatchewan Party seat and usually by-elections don't tend to favour the government, especially considering Wall's approval rating is a lot lower than a year ago so my guess if the NDP will take this.  It will though be interesting what impact the Saskatchewan Party leadership race has.  I believe they will get a bounce in the polls when they choose a new leader, but since the next election isn't until November 2020 doubt they will hold that bounce.  Still too far out to predict who will win then, but even if the Saskatchewan Party does win, it won't be as big a blowout as the last two provincial elections were and even if the NDP wins it will probably be more like the 1999 and 2003 elections as opposed to the 1991 landslide.  It seems rural Saskatchewan is now more or less a lock for parties on the right unlike in the past.

[mileslunn]

Saskatoon Fairview by-election set for Sept 7.

Was a very marginal Saskatchewan Party seat and usually by-elections don't tend to favour the government, especially considering Wall's approval rating is a lot lower than a year ago so my guess if the NDP will take this.  It will though be interesting what impact the Saskatchewan Party leadership race has.  I believe they will get a bounce in the polls when they choose a new leader, but since the next election isn't until November 2020 doubt they will hold that bounce.  Still too far out to predict who will win then, but even if the Saskatchewan Party does win, it won't be as big a blowout as the last two provincial elections were and even if the NDP wins it will probably be more like the 1999 and 2003 elections as opposed to the 1991 landslide.  It seems rural Saskatchewan is now more or less a lock for parties on the right unlike in the past.

Some polling has showed the NDP tying the Sask party in "rest of Saskatchewan", which includes smaller cities like Moose Jaw and Prince Albert and the north, but some rural areas (mainly some small towns, doubt ranchers would ever vote NDP en masse) could voting for the NDP again.

True the cancellation of STC was very unpopular there, although it's been almost 20 years at either the provincial or federal level since the right wasn't running up the margins in rural Saskatchewan thus my skepticism but if the Saskatchewan Party becomes very unpopular in 2020 you could get a scenario like in both Alberta and Manitoba's recent provincial elections where you saw the NDP in Alberta and PCs in Manitoba winning in many ridings they normally would never win although to be fair I suspect they will lose a lot of those next time around even if they win the election (In Alberta that is seeming not too likely but in Manitoba the PCs still have a decent chance at winning but probably not as big a blowout as in 2016).

[mileslunn]

Lac-Saint-Jean will be called soon, Grits eager for a flip. I'd expect they will, we only held it because of LeBel in 2015.

I agree the Tories are unlikely to hold this, but the Grits might have a tougher time than many think.  I believe this area voted 67% yes in the 95 referendum so I think the BQ could possibly win here, mind you with the BQ, NDP, and Conservatives all seeming to be irrelevant in Quebec the Liberals just might take it.  In fact if Quebec becomes to Justin Trudeau like it was for his father this could make it very difficult to unseat the Liberals even if the Tories and NDP gain in English Canada.

[mileslunn]

Judy Foote resigning by end of year.

I think it's safe to say the Liberals will hold on to this one. I think it was their best seat in 2015.

Fully agree here.  It will though be interesting to see what the shifts are as the Tories and NDP were more or less rock bottom so cannot see them doing any worse so while the Liberals will easily hold this, it may give a sense at what type of shifts have happened since.  I know the Newfoundland provincial Liberal government is quite unpopular although unlike Trudeau they've adopted austerity so not sure how much of an impact that will have.

[mileslunn]

Lac-Saint-Jean: Grits confident of a pickup.

I think the Liberals have an edge, but the sort of arrogance we are certain to win or Trudeau is loved is the type that long-term runs parties into trouble.  Otherwise never take anything for granted although do agree the Liberals have the advantage.  While Trudeau has a positive approval rating in Quebec and nationally it is not through the roof, I think the Liberal advantage in Quebec is more due to the weakness of the other parties.  Asides from 2011 NDP has not traditionally been strong in Quebec, BQ is in decline despite this historically being one of their strongest ridings, and the Conservatives are largely confined to the Quebec City region.  Provincially the ADQ and CAQ never did very well in the Saguenay

[mileslunn]

Battlefords-Lloydminister: Ritz is expected to announce his resignation soon.

That is generally a pretty safe Conservative riding so would be shocked if they lost it, nonetheless with Wall's popularity having fallen, it might be a bit tighter.

[mileslunn]

That part of the province is probably very competitive provincially, but the federal NDP is struggling to gain traction here. Half of the Sask NDP provincial supporters here are breaking for the Liberals federally, according to Mainstreet.

Only the Battlefords are competitive for the NDP provincially.  Lloydminster and the rural portions are solidly Saskatchewan Party.  I believe there are around 4-5 provincial ridings per federal and the others are not competitive.  Even in the 1999 and 2003 provincial elections which the NDP won, this riding would have still gone solidly Saskatchewan Party.

[mileslunn]

That part of the province is probably very competitive provincially, but the federal NDP is struggling to gain traction here. Half of the Sask NDP provincial supporters here are breaking for the Liberals federally, according to Mainstreet.

Only the Battlefords are competitive for the NDP provincially.  Lloydminster and the rural portions are solidly Saskatchewan Party.  I believe there are around 4-5 provincial ridings per federal and the others are not competitive.  Even in the 1999 and 2003 provincial elections which the NDP won, this riding would have still gone solidly Saskatchewan Party.

The NDP is running competitively with the Sask Party in rural Saskatchewan according to polling. There are tons of small towns in that area the Sask NDP could win. Lloydminster is a stretch, but I wouldn't see be surprised to see a tight race provincially in the federal boundaries.

That was according to one poll so while possible I am a bit skeptical of rural Saskatchewan swinging heavily to the NDP.  It seems since the late 90s they have more or less abandoned them.  The Angus-reid poll shows it's mainly Regina and Saskatoon that make the NDP competitive and perhaps some support in smaller cities like Moose Jaw and Prince Albert

[mileslunn]

Former MLA Ben Stewart will be the BC Liberal candidate in Kelowana West By-Election.

http://www.cbc.ca/beta/news/canada/british-columbia/b-c-liberals-pick-former-mla-ben-stewart-for-kelowna-west-byelection-1.4273626

Interesting.  I would have thought they should have waited until the next leader is chosen in case the next leader is not from caucus.  Still considering the BC Liberals won this by over 30 points, I suspect they will have little difficulty holding it.  Even if the Greens don't put up a candidate, the BC Liberals pretty much always get over 50% here.

[mileslunn]

My profile of today's by-election: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2017/09/saskatoon-fairview-by-election-preview.html

I would be quite shocked if the NDP doesn't pick this up.  I think margins will be more the interesting one.  Is it similar to 2007 which is good news for the Saskatchewan Party or is more like 1999 and 2003 which is good news for the NDP.  Off course with both parties choosing a new leader a lot can happen between now and the next election so the close poll numbers could easily swing to one side or another.  Nonetheless with Saskatchewan Party's strong rural base I suspect at worst would be a strong opposition in 2020 while even if the NDP loses, I am pretty sure they will pick up a whole bunch of seats.  Otherwise I suspect the 2003 and 2007 results are the best to use for predicting what could happen.  2011 and 2016 were massive blowouts that don't happen too long just as 1991 was a massive blowout for the NDP which they were unable to maintain beyond that.

[mileslunn]

If those numbers hold up, then big night for the NDP and obviously a message to the Saskatchewan Party that some are unhappy.  The NDP will definitely win this, but lets see what the final numbers are.

[mileslunn]

One thing I neglected to mention in my blog post was how good the SP and the Tories are in the advance vote. I think the NDP actually won the election day vote in 2016.

Then the predictions others made might close as my understanding is advanced votes usually come last since they take the longest to count.  Noticed that with other parties on the right, any idea why that is?  Interestingly in BC at least absentee ballots tend to favour the NDP.

[mileslunn]

With 25 out of 55 reporting and it now being 64.3% NDP to 26.6% Saskatchewan Party this won't even be close, even if the final polls are a bit closer.  Big NDP win it looks like.

[mileslunn]

A lot of the people from out of the province commenting don't understand quite HOW unpopular the Sask Party is right now. I think this by-election should be a sign that the Sask NDP could legitimately contest the Kindersley by-election, especially with Bill Boyd's legal dramas.

Advance voting depends on the constituency, the one where I volunteered for, our NDP candidate won by the advance votes by a slim margin, but some other candidate's election day victories were overturned by the advance votes.

I know the Saskatchewan Party did take a hit over the last budget, but Wall's approval ratings in the polls I've seen is still around 45% which is a lot lower than it has traditionally been, but compared to other premiers still quite high although somewhat lower than Trudeau's.  I guess Kindersley is possible, but I tend to think the ridings they won in 2003 is probably the one's most likely to flip.

[mileslunn]

CBC has now called it for the NDP.

[mileslunn]

Just five polls left, probably the advanced and the two mobile.  Looks like a very good night for the NDP.  Outperformed 2007 and Sask Party so far did slightly worse although maybe will match depending on advanced polls.  NDP also outperformed 2003, but it looks like the Sask Party did as well.  Interestingly enough in 1982, this riding went massively PC, but then swung massively to the NDP with similar numbers in 1986 which the PCs still won.  Granted that was a long time ago so one needs to be careful making comparisons.  But things are looking good for the NDP, while the Saskatchewan Party definitely has their issues although they at least have 3 years to try to turn things around so they do have the luxury of time, but off course things could go either way.

Saskatchewan Green Party 45 1.4%
Vicki Mowat New Democratic Party (N.D.P.) 1887 60.6%
David Prokopchuk P. C. Party of Sask. 93 3.0%
Shah Rukh Saskatchewan Liberal Party 124 4.0%
Cameron Scott Saskatchewan Party 957 30.8%
Rejected Ballots - 6 0.2%

[mileslunn]

Final numbers

Taylor Bolin Saskatchewan Green Party 61 1.3%
Vicki Mowat New Democratic Party (N.D.P.) 2759 60.3%
David Prokopchuk P. C. Party of Sask. 123 2.7%
Shah Rukh Saskatchewan Liberal Party 199 4.4%
Cameron Scott Saskatchewan Party 1423 31.1%
Rejected Ballots - 7 0.2%

So definitely a good night for the NDP and while a lost was expected for the Saskatchewan Party the size of the loss has to be worrisome.  It doesn't mean they will lose the next election, that is three years away, but it means they have their work cut out for them.

[mileslunn]

Actual percentages (for some reason Elections SK calculates %s as a pct of total votes cast rather than just valid votes)

NDP: 60.4% (+15.2)
SP: 31.2% (-17.1)
Lib: 4.4% (-0.7)
PC: 2.7%
Grn: 1.3% (-0.1)

Turnout: 35.7% (-14.4%)

Swing: 16.1% (NDP gain from SP) - bigger swing than in Meewasin! Also, this swing if applied province wide would result in a tie in the popular vote.

. Meewasin was also before the austerity budget so I suspect the SP declined further after that.

[mileslunn]

How about Swift Current?  After all, it's been held by the NDP before (most recently during the 1991-99 Romanow majority years).  And even if they don't win, in Brad Wall's absence the NDP's almost certain to have one of its highest swings here, if not *the* highest swing...

It's like much of rural Southern Saskatchewan trended heavily Saskatchewan Party although agree without Brad Wall will be much closer.  I believe the Tories federally though got over 60% there so a lot will depend on whether the party plunges further or rebounds.

[mileslunn]

Lac-Saint-Jean and Sturgeon River-Parkland set for Oct. 23.

Sturgeon River-Parkland should be an easy Conservative hold.  Lac Saint Jean will be the more interesting.  With the Liberals well ahead in Quebec and a strong candidate they have an excellent chance at picking it up, mind you this is probably one of the least Liberal friendly ridings in Quebec.  I believe in 1995, this riding voted 2/3 Yes.  NDP and BQ could theoretically be competitive, but they both seem in fairly bad shape in Quebec and for the Tories this was more a Lebel riding than Conservative one as in the last election they did quite poorly in all the neighbouring ridings.  Their support is more in around Quebec City where they still might be competitive, but it seems any riding more than 100km outside Quebec City is probably off limits for them which would include Lac Saint Jean.

Of the ones not called, Battlefords-Lloydminster should be an easy Tory hold while Bonavista-Trinity-Burin easy Liberal hold.  Scarborough-Agincourt leans Liberals and if they still where they are in the polls they are fine, but if things tighten then there is an outside chance the Tories could pull off an upset.  In 2011 it stayed Liberal more due to Jim Karygiannis and had he not run I think the Tories would have won it, although lost it in 2015.  Likewise provincially I could definitely see Scarborough-Agincourt going PC if the current numbers hold.

[mileslunn]

Running in Agincourt would be a bad idea; wrong part of Scarborough for him to win in.  Do you think one of the Windsor MPs will step down for him? I'm worried that might not go over so well.

Any chance one of those might decide to run provincially as I am thinking of one of the eight Ontario MPs steps down to go provincial that could create an opening.  Of the upcoming by-elections, none of them are exactly seats the NDP is likely to win.

[mileslunn]

Running in Agincourt would be a bad idea; wrong part of Scarborough for him to win in.  Do you think one of the Windsor MPs will step down for him? I'm worried that might not go over so well.

Any chance one of those might decide to run provincially as I am thinking of one of the eight Ontario MPs steps down to go provincial that could create an opening.  Of the upcoming by-elections, none of them are exactly seats the NDP is likely to win.

True, but Wynne is extremely unpopular and not just on the right, but also left so the NDP is in better position to hold the balance of power if the Liberals only get a minority, form official opposition (and win when Ontario tires of the PCs) if the Liberals implode on both sides, or even if Brown messes up badly win outright.  By contrast Trudeau is fairly popular amongst progressives so defeating him or even forming official opposition seem highly unlikely.  Yes he might get reduced to a minority but even that is probably less than a 50% chance.  So even with lower salary and prestige things are looking better provincially for both opposition parties than they do federally.

He could also look to Saskatchewan or Manitoba as while those don't have their elections until 2020 the NDP in both provinces is likely to perform better than they did last time around and in the case of Saskatchewan they have a decent shot at winning outright while Manitoba is probably more difficult but not impossible.

Being an MP is a lot more prestigious than being an MPP, so it's pretty unlikely. If somebody stepped aside for Jagmeet, it'd probably be an older member who has served a few terms already.

[mileslunn]

Running in Agincourt would be a bad idea; wrong part of Scarborough for him to win in.  Do you think one of the Windsor MPs will step down for him? I'm worried that might not go over so well.

I doubt it. Brian Masse is under fifty and Cheryl Hardcastle  is a first termer.

Actually, this goes to show how narrow the NDP's options are for giving a leader a seat. If we filter down to seats where the NDP MP is in their 3rd term or later and won by at least 10% ( a decent proxy for leader byelection material) we get:

Outremont
Windsor West
Edmonton-Strathcona
Skeena—Bulkley Valley

Not exactly a great list. Edmonton-Strathcona would be the best bet IMO.

Outremont was more a Mulcair seat than NDP so I actually think there is a real risk it would flip to the Liberals.  Edmonton-Strathcona looks safe, but not sure what impact the current provincial NDP government would have although it seems Notley is doing fine in Edmonton just unpopular elsewhere.  Skeena-Bulkley Valley is more a Nathan Cullen although with its large aboriginal population and being fairly rural doesn't seem like one either the Tories or Liberals would snatch.  The real danger there is it would have to be done in the next year while the provincial NDP government is still reasonably popular since if the BC NDP tanks in the polls (not saying they will, but cannot be ruled out) that could have a negative spillover federally.

That being said if there is a strong bounce in the polls after Singh winning I could easily see some NDP MP willing to give up a relatively safe seat in the interest of the party and then in 2019 try and make a comeback when Singh runs in Brampton East.  In many ways not too dissimilar to Scott Brison giving up Kings-Hants for Joe Clark, but then returning in 2000.

[mileslunn]

South Surrey-White Rock: Watts quitting to run for the provincial Grit leadership.

Beat me too it.  As a popular mayor of Surrey she definitely is one to watch and although no guarantee she will win the BC Liberal leadership let alone the next provincial election, she is definitely one to watch.  Probably rightly figured the odds of the BC Liberals winning the next election are better than the federal Tories (note she likely would get a cabinet position if they won and she was MP).

In terms of odds, this is normally a fairly safe conservative riding, but the Liberals almost won it last time and considering how they did in neighbouring ridings I suspect the Liberals would have won it if she weren't the candidate.  Likewise since Liberal support has held up in BC and Tory support hasn't rebounded, I think there is a very real possibility of a Liberal pick up.  The only thing the Tories really have in their favour is by-election turnout is typically quite low and their base is more likely to show up so they tend to fair better when turnout is low than high.  Should be interesting to watch.

[mileslunn]

South Surrey-White Rock: Watts quitting to run for the provincial Grit leadership.

Not to go too far off topic, but from the B.C perspective, this likely explains why no Liberal M.L.A had entered the leadership race (which is only around 4 months away): they were all waiting to see what Dianne Watts would decide.

I wonder if Ben Stewart will step down as candidate as she will need a seat and since Kelowna West is a very safe BC Liberal seat it would seem logical for the next leader to run there if they don't already have.