Canadian by-elections, 2017 (next event: Calgary-Lougheed, AB prov.: Dec 14)

[lilTommy]

Markham-Unionville and Saint-Laurent-Cartierville: McCallum is leaving politics and headed to the Beijing Embassy, Dion outta Cabinet and to an unspecified embassy.

Both haven't been great performers, Dion has never looked well suited for cabinet, even under Chretien and McCallum has had a number of comments go off the rails.

McCallum's riding is Markham-Thornhill; he used to represent Markham-Unionville up until last election but after redistribution ran here. 2011 was very close between the CPC and LPC; 2015 was not. If the CPC were polling better OR are able to get a very strong well known candidate this would be competitive since there is some person McCallum effect here. Otherwise this will be LPC win.
Dion's riding of Saint Laurent, will probably always go Liberal. The NDP cut the LPC lead to only 13 points in 2011 but in 2015 the lead was 42 points. This is not a Dion riding but rather a LIBERAL one, LPC vote is typically in the 60-70% range.

[lilTommy]

With neither the SP or NDP having nominated candidates, the NDP lead the first poll in Saskatoon-Meewasin... barely, within the margin of error

http://saskatoon.ctvnews.ca/ndp-lead-in-latest-poll-on-saskatoon-meewasin-byelection-1.3253076

NDP 37%, SP 35%, Greens and Liberals at 3% a piece

"The poll surveyed 603 people between Jan. 20 and 21, and carries a margin of error of 3.9 per cent, 19 times out of 20."

[lilTommy]

In Ontario, the Sault Ste. Marie by-election is shaping up to be a battle of the City Councillors:

http://www.saultstar.com/2017/01/25/krmpotich-to-carry-ndp-banner

NDP nominated Ward 6 Councillor Joe Krmpotich
PCs nominated Ward 5 Councillor Ross Romano

oh, thats not all, Ward 3 Councillor Matthew Shoemaker is considering a run for the Liberals.

Anyone familiar with The Sault local politics?

[lilTommy]

Looking at a map Meewasin doesn't look all that suburban to me...its close to downtown and mostly right by the river

Well, the northern half of the riding is suburban.

Saskatoon Meewasin includes the neighbourhoods of River Heights, Richmond Heights, City Park, North Park, and Kelsey-Woodlawn.

[lilTommy]

You beat me to it! here are the Decided as well, even worse for the SP

So not so close in Saskatoon-Meewasin...
All Voters (Decided+Leaning)
NDP - 46% (59%)
SP - 23% (30%)
SL - 4% (7%)
Green - 4% (4%)
undecided - 23%

[lilTommy]

Mainstreet Polling is a regular here in Saskatchewan, and they're usually pretty accurate.. If Saskatoon-Meewasin is actually this lopsided, then I imagine the NDP would wipe out most of the Sask Party's caucus in Regina and Saskatoon.

I think its part candidate, Meili is highly regarded as a Doctor, and a former leadership candidate who members have been dying to have run but also a riding the NDP does well in even when they do not win it. Also its been nothing but bad news for the SP since winning the last election... polling has had the NDP on the upswing in both cities since then.

[lilTommy]

I knew Shan would probably win, but that is certainly an impressive victory. I figured voters would've got sick of him running for election every six months. So what, we are now headed for a third school board by-election to fill his seat?

Perhaps always constantly running for office in basically the same area helped? He had the name most people knew from the million times he ran. 45% is still really impressive. My first fear was, ugh is he going to bold in 2018... but at the news conference he said he's running again for council (was specific) in 2018. I think Councillor of MPP was really where he wanted to be anyway.
It will be nice to have some more suburban progressives on council, there aren't many (Carroll, Perruzza, Augimeri, Colle, now Shan)

[lilTommy]

Other federal by-elections called for April 3.

So... these ridings are up:

Calgary Heritage (CPC hold)
Calgary Midnapore (CPC hold)
Saint-Laurent (LPC hold)
Markham-Thornhill (most likely the most competitive, toss CPC-LPC)
Ottawa-Vanier (Likely LPC, only riding the NDP can probably even legit contest and put up a fight)

[lilTommy]

These five by-elections look like they'll be the most boring ever. 

When Markham-Thornhill, which had a Liberal majority of 10,000 in 2015, is considered the closest to "toss-up," I think you're right.

That was the 2015 election though; If you look at how the 2011 election was transposed on to the new Riding you got:
LPC - 37%
CPC - 36%
NPD - 23%

[lilTommy]

The notional 2011 result was the byproduct of added west-of-the-404 polls from Peter Kent's Thornhill superstronghold (which were still something of a Lib-Con draw in 2015), and the Tamil-leaning eastern polls getting caught up in Laytonmania.  With the NDP all but disintegrating as a factor by 2015, the bigger question might be if the "ChinaCon" swing evident in CPC winning Markham-Unionville (or the provincial PCs winning Scarborough-RR) might migrate into the less uppity environs of Milliken, Armadale, et al.

The NDP is likely to poll its traditional pre-2011 numbers, 10% or so likely, as it is nationally about 16% or so; But the Conservatives are polling better then the 2015 numbers and without McCallum and already internal issues with the Liberal nomination, I just don't think this is a safe LPC hold.

[lilTommy]

Saskatoon-Meewasin Final:

Meili, NDP - 54.2 % (2,666 votes),
Penner, SP - 39.9% (1,962 votes)
Lamoureaux, Liberal - 3.7%(180 votes)
Prokopchuk, PC - 1.3 % (62 votes)
Setyo, Green - 1.1% (53 votes)

voter turnout is at 40.62 per cent (4,923 of 12,121 registered voters)

So that last poll out, was odd/bad polling? and might have scared the crud out of the NDP to get the vote out.

[lilTommy]

Looking more and more like a PC-NDP race.

With Hydro being 'UGE in the North, more so then southern/urban Ontario and the PCs having no plan... this is feels more advantage NDP, but, it is the Soo so anything can happen (the riding tends to buck trends, 95 the NDP vote increased as the party went down in flames to Harris, and 2011 federally the NDP MP was defeated by the CPC during the Orange Crush)

[lilTommy]

Saint-Laurent: James lost the nomination to a local schoolteacher. She also came a distant 3rd. SAD! (which is why you appoint)

Lol

How hard is it for the LPC to sign up instamembers en masse? If they want to rig a nomination, they should do it the old fashioned way.

yeah, this is just incompetence, or perhaps the Liberals have been feeling the heat on electoral reform, so are trying to avoid any democratic scandals by avoiding meddling in nomination races?

They aren't doing a good job at that either then! i.e. Markham-Thornhill's nomination mess

[lilTommy]

Toronto might hold another City Council by-election, Scarborough ward 44 Councillor Ron Moeser has died
https://www.thestar.com/news/city_hall/2017/04/18/toronto-councillor-ron-moeser-dies.html

[lilTommy]

Honesty I have no clue what'll happen there.  The Soo often defies the general trend.

Yup, even provincially... back in 95, when the ONDP got crushed, SSM saw an increase in vote for the ONDP.
Fingers crossed on an ONDP win!

[lilTommy]

Sad! The NDP has a fairly low ceiling, clearly. Would've needed the Liberals to do a bit better to bring the Tories down.

Not really.  More that voters chose to "back a winner" (i.e. the presumption that the PCs will win the next election.

Worth noting that this is the first time the provincial PCs have won a seat beyond Nipissing in 30 years.

The NDP has won upwards of 43-49% of the vote here (1999 they won 43%, in 87 it was 49%), and they did see a swing of almost 8% but I agree I think it has more to do with a general PC swing across the province. Its the OLP who dropped from 58% to 23% here that have to worry. With Scarborough and now SSM losses.
I think the NDP does have to worry a little though, the North is somewhat "their" territory, continues to be their best polled area... they don't want to lose to the PCs in the Liberal ridings. But then again this is SSM so.

The PCs won Cochrane South in 1987, so like exactly 30 years

[lilTommy]

Sure, the NDP has cracked 40% before, but that was with Tony Martin on the ballot, and his popularity began to wane in the 2000s. I don't think the NDP can get to those numbers any more in the Soo.

One thing to keep in mind about Northern Ontario is that the cities are actually far more right wing than the rural areas (at least economically), so while the NDP can win in areas like Kenora, Algoma, Nickel Belt, Timiskaming and Cochrane, it will have trouble in Sudbury, the Soo and Thunder Bay. There is a base in those cities, but they can only win with the right vote splits.

One of the key issues the NDP will have to deal with is bridging the populist North with the bobo ridings in southern Ontario, something they are now having trouble with. Jack Layton was able to do it, but Horwath and Mulcair could not.

Oh Agreed, Candidate is also important here which I think was talked about, I'm not fully versed on Krmpotich other then he was a councillor a union steel guy. Wasn't enough with the PCs riding high and the Liberals still holding 20+%

Its true, cities tend to be more right-wing (due to being the regional centres where you find more wealth, professionals, etc) the NDP did manage to squeak a win in Sudbury in 2014... only to lose it with a mess of a candidate who stepped down. The split happened, just benefited the PCs this time more so. Krmpotich already mentioned there may be a re-match...

[lilTommy]

The Conservative federal MP, Denis Lebel, will retire this summer.  By-election to come in Lac-Saint-Jean.

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/politique/politique-canadienne/201706/18/01-5108772-denis-lebel-tire-sa-reverence.php

With the NDP way down in Quebec, liberals may have a chance for a pickup.

Tough call at this point. It's very pro-sovereignty area of the province, but it is also a riding that is not that committed to voting for pro-sovereignty parties.

- The Liberals have not won it since 1980, but a lot of ridings in Quebec had the distinction before 2015. Provincially, they hold the western half of the riding (Roberval), but that's only because it's the Premier's seat.
- This isn't exactly a traditional Conservative seat. They did do well in 2006, which helped them pick the seat up in a by-election in 2007. Provincially though, the CAQ/ADQ has no history in this part of Quebec.
- This could've been an NDP target once upon a time. The 2015 redistribution added Alma to the district, which was swept by the NDP in 2011 (and again in 2015!).
- The eastern half of this riding has been represented by the PQ since 1976.

The NDP still came in second with 28% vs Label's 33%; even then with the Liberal victory in 2015 they were 4th; I would think that the CPC, BQ, and NDP will want this seat and all three could have a shot. 
Polling is all over the place, two polls out have the NDP at 11%, the other at 20%... so the party is best to just ignore the polls and go after the seat, I think with a leadership race on, all 5 candidates showing up to help campaign can build more media cover for the NDP. I think the CPC or BQ would have to be favourites, but the NDP can be in this race I think.

[lilTommy]

Saskatoon-Fairview Sask Party MLA Jennifer Campeau is stepping down. Could be another NDP gain.

http://www.leaderpost.com/saskatoon+jennifer+campeau+steps+down/13463711/story.html

At this point, almost any urban by-election (ok, ANY seat) the NDP will target. With the NDP gaining strength province wide they are going to be all over this riding. Polling looks a little scattered:
http://thestarphoenix.com/news/saskatchewan/right-now-its-anybodys-ball-game-sask-party-popularity-fading-ndp-surging-polls-show

Angus Reid: SP 48%, NDP 40%
Mainstreet: NDP 49% SP 40%
But, both polls have the NDP leading in Saskatoon so, again, I think candidates will seal the seat for either the SP of NDP, but lean-NDP on this one (just based on provincial polling)
I'm sure Wall is overjoyed by this

[lilTommy]

For the Saskatoon-Fairview, the NDP have nominated 2016 candidate and Executive Assistant to the Dean of Aboriginal Affairs at the University of Saskatchewan Vicki Mowat

http://saskatoon.ctvnews.ca/mowat-to-represent-ndp-in-saskatoon-fairview-by-election-1.3517540

The SaskParty have nominated School Board Trustee, former correction officer Cameron Scott

http://thestarphoenix.com/news/local-news/saskatoon-fairview-follow

[lilTommy]

In addition to resigning as BC Liberal leader, Christy Clark will also be resigning her seat.

The likelyhood of the NDP winning Kelwona West is what?... From what I can see, they have never won this riding in any configuration. Greens? would this be a riding the NDP could/should sacrifice for their little buddies?

[lilTommy]

Another Saskatchewan MLA is retiring, as of 9/1, Kindersley MLA Bill Boyd
He's been around since 91 as a PC MLA, served as party leader till joining the SP in 97.

http://saskatoon.ctvnews.ca/mobile/kindersley-mla-bill-boyd-to-retire-1.3547214

A right-wing party has held this riding since 78, the Liberals held it from 75-78. The best the NDP managed since then was 34% in 78. In 2016, this was a battle between Boyd the SP MLA and a former SP MLA, the NDp only managed about 7%. 

[lilTommy]

Judy Foote resigning by end of year.

I think it's safe to say the Liberals will hold on to this one. I think it was their best seat in 2015.

Fully agree here.  It will though be interesting to see what the shifts are as the Tories and NDP were more or less rock bottom so cannot see them doing any worse so while the Liberals will easily hold this, it may give a sense at what type of shifts have happened since.  I know the Newfoundland provincial Liberal government is quite unpopular although unlike Trudeau they've adopted austerity so not sure how much of an impact that will have.

Foote won 81% of the vote... ya i'd say that's a strong mandate

[lilTommy]

Battlefords-Lloydminister: Ritz is expected to announce his resignation soon.

That is generally a pretty safe Conservative riding so would be shocked if they lost it, nonetheless with Wall's popularity having fallen, it might be a bit tighter.

Battlefords-Lloydminister Has been held by a Right wing party since the ridings creation in 1997 (Reform/Alliance/Conseravtive), before that though the Battlefords-Meadow Lake riding which was carved up to create Battlefords-Lloydminister was NDP held.
The NDP still is the main opponent, 2nd placer here but hasn't broken 30% ever'... so ya pretty solid CPC.

[lilTommy]

Louis-Hebert provincial by-election called for October 2.

Apparently the NPDQ will be contesting it! Will be interesting to see how well they do. For comparison, the federal NDP got about ~10% in 2008, ~40% in 2011 and ~20% in 2015.

They will be running former MP Denis Blanchette, who is the current president of the NPDQ.

http://www.lapresse.ca/le-soleil/actualites/politique/201708/08/01-5123011-partielle-dans-louis-hebert-un-premier-test-pour-le-npd-quebec.php

That's fairly high profile for the almost-nothing party eh, but since QS and I believe the Greens are also running candidates, that's really a crowded left, left-of-centre field now. Also, sounds like both QS and NPDQ are going to use orange... i guess if PQ/CAQ can both use blues, it can be done but talk about confusion.