Canadian by-elections, 2017 (next event: Calgary-Lougheed, AB prov.: Dec 14)

[Krago]

Hatman, how would you conduct a public opinion poll for a race where there were 29 candidates on the ballot, like the Ward 42 by-election?

[Krago]

Hatman, how would you conduct a public opinion poll for a race where there were 29 candidates on the ballot, like the Ward 42 by-election?

Depends on the mode:
-Phone (interviewers wouldn't read the list, unless asked)
-Online (no problem, just list everyone)

Your big problem is if it's IVR, because you need to read the list (press '1' for X). I would try to identify who the main candidates are and have an 'other' option.

When I was IVR-polled for the Conservative leadership race a few weeks ago, the message read through all the names (... and press 1-4 for Brad Trost...).  It took such a long time, I couldn't imagine doubling the candidates.

By the way, if you want to remember the names of all 14 CPC leadership candidates, just use the mnemonic:  STOP ROBBOCALLS

(Damn you, Steven Blaney!)

[Krago]

Quick-and-dirty Sault Ste. Marie by-election results map:



vs. 2014 General Election results map:

[Krago]

further evidence that most of the vote switching in the Soo is anti-NDP. Reliably NDP west end went NDP, while the normally Liberal east end went Tory. 

Interestingly, the far west end (Ward 6) went PC. That's the ward that both the NDP and PC candidate represented on council.

Soo what?  (sorry)

Any thoughts aboot the Point Douglas by-election?

I may or may not do a write up on it tomorrow.  But, it should be an easy NDP hold. Potentially a future Liberal target in the distant future, but they're too much in disarray on the provincial level.

Thanks.

I liked my joke about the Soo. I'm sure nobody has ever come up with that before! 

oh wow, I hadn't even noticed!

Can't wait for your take on the 'Poe Lock'.

[Krago]

I have none.  What is the Poe Lock?

(hey, I have personal ethnic licence ;-) )

As for the Soo, the far west is rural-dominated, right?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soo_Locks

[Krago]

The Conservative federal MP, Denis Lebel, will retire this summer.  By-election to come in Lac-Saint-Jean.

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/politique/politique-canadienne/201706/18/01-5108772-denis-lebel-tire-sa-reverence.php

With the NDP way down in Quebec, liberals may have a chance for a pickup.

Tough call at this point. It's very pro-sovereignty area of the province, but it is also a riding that is not that committed to voting for pro-sovereignty parties.

- The Liberals have not won it since 1980, but a lot of ridings in Quebec had the distinction before 2015. Provincially, they hold the western half of the riding (Roberval), but that's only because it's the Premier's seat.
- This isn't exactly a traditional Conservative seat. They did do well in 2006, which helped them pick the seat up in a by-election in 2007. Provincially though, the CAQ/ADQ has no history in this part of Quebec.
- This could've been an NDP target once upon a time. The 2015 redistribution added Alma to the district, which was swept by the NDP in 2011 (and again in 2015!).
- The eastern half of this riding has been represented by the PQ since 1976.

The NDP still came in second with 28% vs Label's 33%; even then with the Liberal victory in 2015 they were 4th; I would think that the CPC, BQ, and NDP will want this seat and all three could have a shot. 
Polling is all over the place, two polls out have the NDP at 11%, the other at 20%... so the party is best to just ignore the polls and go after the seat, I think with a leadership race on, all 5 candidates showing up to help campaign can build more media cover for the NDP. I think the CPC or BQ would have to be favourites, but the NDP can be in this race I think.

The Liberals finished third in Lac-Saint-Jean in 2015.

Candidate	Party	Occupation	Votes	Votes (%)
LEBEL, Denis	C	parliamentarian	18,393	33.27%
DALLAIRE, Gisèle	N.D.P.	industrial psychologist	15,735	28.46%
SIMARD, Sabin	Lib	consultant	10,193	18.44%
GAUDREAULT, Sabin	B.Q.	retired	10,152	18.37%
REQUILÉ, Laurence	G.P.	florist	806	1.46%

[Krago]

Does anyone have the polling subdivision maps used in the Quebec provincial by-elections in Chauveau (2015-06-08) and St-Henri--Ste-Anne (2015-11-09)?

Many thanks.

[Krago]

Outremont, 2006 general election

Liberal - red, BQ - purple, NDP - orange, Conservative - blue



Outremont, 2008 general election

[Krago]

I take a personal interest in the goings-on of Louis-Hebert, since the man himself was my great (x12th?) grandfather.  Of course, he is also related to half of the province.

Given the lack of enthusiasm for the PLQ, does the NDPQ stand a chance of reaching double digits?  Or will they get a more fringe-y 1-2%?