Canadian by-elections, 2017 (next event: Calgary-Lougheed, AB prov.: Dec 14)

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Off topic but still related, what's going on with the sudden drop in support for the Liberals?

Two things.
1. Not going through with changing Canada's system, and moving away from FPTP
2. Essentially lying.  Even people who want the current system maintained acknowledge he blatantly lied.  And if he honestly didn't understand what changing the system meant, he comes off as unintelligent/making empty promises to get elected.

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Unlikely. The practice in toronto has been not to have a byelection when we are past the half way mark of the city council term. I expect council to pick a temporary replacement who will promise not to run next year

They really should promise they won't run for elected office.  We saw what happened in Etobicoke with James Maloney.  The City of Toronto basically gave him the name recognition for free.

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Sault Ste. Marie finally called for June 1.

Will be interesting.  The NDP (and ONDP) always seem within reach in Sault Ste Marie, but even with strong candidates the last couple of times, they didn't do the best.  I do expect the Liberals to lose a lot the vote, I'm not sure the former mayor is as popular as the Liberals like to point out, and with the Liberal unpopularity in Ontario, particularly in the North, I see voters moving over to either the ONDP or PCs.  Should the ONDP take this riding, it shows that the Blue/Orange tossups are in play for the ONDP, and that the PCs aren't going to be able to take them for granted.

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Sault Ste Marie, federally, was one of the only ridings (if not the only?) where an NDP incumbent lost during the big orange wave of Jack Layton that put them into opposition.  Trends, like was mentioned previously, don't really matter here.  I do hear that the NDP candidate is the most well liked.

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Patrick Brown sure is showing that he is a contender.  However, some of the reaction is quite hyper-sensationalist, making it seem like this PC win would be akin to a  Toronto-Danforth, or other leftist riding, win.  This was a seat that went Conservative federally, was on the PCs radar.  Sault Ste Marie has had 3 way splits for some time.  It is not that shocking that the PCs won.

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If the NDP under Jagmeet Singh is reduced to 19 seats, that'll be one heck of a bomb.

I'm not sure if this is intentional or not, but let's refrain from using the word bomb to describe Singh's political trajectory.  There are many places, even in Canada, that equate brown with terrorist, and this kind of language doesn't help.

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PEI is not really the beacon of socialism. The Greens are doing well because of a desire for change and due to its cultural NIMBYism I think.

This is all very interesting of course, because I could see the Greens actually forming government one day. They have the momentum. All it would take is a dumb premature election call a la Theresa May or Jim Prentice.

Which is interesting, considering its small population base actually requires huge public subsidies to run programs and the province.  Also much easier to get any small party elected when you have ridings where the winner doesn't even get 1000 votes.