Canadian by-elections, 2017 (next event: Calgary-Lougheed, AB prov.: Dec 14)

[DC Al Fine]

She's retiring. Can QS hold it? Maybe a chance for the NDPQ to run (is that still happening)? Gouin is basically La Petite-Patrie, which pretty much the most leftist area in Quebec.

Should be an interesting test case for QS. I would guess they hold it based off their relatively strong polling and the fact that they make a solid protest vote option, but what do I know, I can't even predict Anglo results

[DC Al Fine]

Trudeau has been taking his time calling the by-elections, but Ottawa-Vanier is due in about a week, so we should have some federal ones to watch.

[DC Al Fine]

Gouin: PQ won't field a candidate.

Why would they do that?

[DC Al Fine]

Ottawa-Vanier: Set for April 3.

Trudeau's not grouping the Calgary ones with Ottawa-Vanier?

[DC Al Fine]

Saint-Laurent: James lost the nomination to a local schoolteacher. She also came a distant 3rd. SAD! (which is why you appoint)

Lol

How hard is it for the LPC to sign up instamembers en masse? If they want to rig a nomination, they should do it the old fashioned way.

[DC Al Fine]

Let's not lose sight of the elephant in the room. In 2014 Sault Ste. Marie was the second safest Ontario Liberal seat in the entire province! They took 59% of the vote there. Their vote crashed by 36 points to just 23% - if that swing were replicated across the province the Liberals would be reduced to just one seat!

Final results Sault Ste Marie

Ross Romano PC 10,391 40.30% (+27.91%)
Joe Krmpotich NDP 8535 33.10% (+7.63%)
Debbie Amarosa Liberal 5919 22.96% (-35.57)
Kara Flannigan Green 512 1.99% (-1.24%)
Above Znoneofthe None of the above party 310 1.20%
Gene Balfour Libertarian  71 0.28% (-0.10%)
John Turmel Pauper 47 0.18%

Turnout 43.93%
https://www3.elections.on.ca/RealTimeResults/ElectoralDistrict/en

Irrelevant spin. I've stated numerous times that Sault Ste. Marie is a very different riding from the rest of the province, and therefore that ~32% swing will not be replicated across the province.

It's a byelection. This happens all the time and pundits still don't learn. The government party​ loses 20% plus in a byelection, we get all these predictions of doom, but the when the general election comes around, the swing is almost always more pedestrian.

I don't like the OLP and think they're doomed to lose but even a 20% is kind of unlikely, much less 36%.

[DC Al Fine]

Some rural seats like Batoche and Saskatchewan Rivers, which have large reserve populations, are ripe for picking, and they'll be the ones deciding who forms government in 2020.

I don't understand that argument. Seats with a high native population seem less swingable than more white seats to me. It's like arguing that Mississippi could be a Democratic pickup. Sure the NDP have a high floor, but the non-reserve polls are voting 70-80% Saskatchewan Party.

[DC Al Fine]

How about Swift Current?  After all, it's been held by the NDP before (most recently during the 1991-99 Romanow majority years).  And even if they don't win, in Brad Wall's absence the NDP's almost certain to have one of its highest swings here, if not *the* highest swing...

It's like much of rural Southern Saskatchewan trended heavily Saskatchewan Party although agree without Brad Wall will be much closer.  I believe the Tories federally though got over 60% there so a lot will depend on whether the party plunges further or rebounds.

Even comparing 2015 to 2004, the Tories are up 5-10% in Swift Current.  It's definitely harder for the NDP to do well there than in 1995.

[DC Al Fine]

Hmm, we did see a 6 point swing in the Markham-Thornhill by-election, and it is only about 1/3 Chinese. Agincourt is nearly half Chinese, and the same swing would put the Tories within 3 points of the Liberals there.

Polls in Ontario more or less match the 2015 result, so it will be a question of how motivated the Tory and Liberal voters are, and how much Toronto-area Chinese people have trended CPC. Turnout spiked last election, and those voters likely favoured Trudeau. I'm not so sure those folks will show up for a by-election.

All things considered, there's still a sizeable lead for the Tories to overcome, and the polls haven't moved much from 2015. I say the Liberals narrowly hold on to the seat.

[DC Al Fine]

Polls will not pick up on swings among ethnic communities, though. They don't respond to polls as much as the general public, and even if they did, you wouldn't see a big shift in province-wide polling.

Sure. I just meant there will likely be little to no swing in the white vote to help put the Tories over the top.

Also, I just noticed that about 15% of the riding is South Asian. Have they trended any further away form the Tories since 2015? If so that might provide some headwinds for them.

[DC Al Fine]

Running in Agincourt would be a bad idea; wrong part of Scarborough for him to win in.  Do you think one of the Windsor MPs will step down for him? I'm worried that might not go over so well.

I doubt it. Brian Masse is under fifty and Cheryl Hardcastle  is a first termer.

Actually, this goes to show how narrow the NDP's options are for giving a leader a seat. If we filter down to seats where the NDP MP is in their 3rd term or later and won by at least 10% ( a decent proxy for leader byelection material) we get:

Outremont
Windsor West
Edmonton-Strathcona
Skeena—Bulkley Valley

Not exactly a great list. Edmonton-Strathcona would be the best bet IMO.

[DC Al Fine]

Actually, this goes to show how narrow the NDP's options are for giving a leader a seat. If we filter down to seats where the NDP MP is in their 3rd term or later and won by at least 10% ( a decent proxy for leader byelection material) we get:

Outremont
Windsor West
Edmonton-Strathcona
Skeena—Bulkley Valley

You forgot Hamilton Centre whgere Dave Christopherson is quite old and has been there since 2004...and he won pretty easily in 2015

Yes, you're right. My mistake.

[DC Al Fine]

Grits probably hold it with Jean Yip. It'll be hard for the Conservative to attack the MP's widow without it crossing a line.

Oh, if there are attacks they will almost certainly be against Mr. Trudeau.

[DC Al Fine]

Wow the NDP got 1.35%?  This experiment was a bad idea.  Only way it will work is if Tom Mulcair himself is leader. But I guess the Quebec Conservatives are also fringe...

They missed their opening. The party has been sitting inactive for years while the NDP has slid in the polls.

[DC Al Fine]

Ambrose's seat is going Tory. I'm guessing Liberal pick up in Lebel's spot

[DC Al Fine]

Calgary-Lougheed MLA Dave Rodney is resigning his seat Nov. 1 to allow Kenney to get into the legislature.

Is he quitting politics or is this one of those "get your seat back next election" deals?

[DC Al Fine]

Federal ones called for Dec. 11.

Oh good. Thought we wouldn't see much going on electorally until next spring.

[DC Al Fine]

Final Results Mount Pearl North
Jim Lester PC 2064 46.89% (-4.59)
Jim Burton Liberal 1129 25.65% (-16.77%)
Nicole Kieley NDP 1088 24.72%(+18.62%)
Hudson Stratton Independent 121 2.75% 

Hmm things are looking up for the NDP. That swing would wing them some of the more favourable St. John's seats. I'd like to see a by-election in rural Newfoundland though to see what's going on there.

[DC Al Fine]

Wow. Not good news for the NDP. But I'm glad the Liberals lost the seat. I really hated how they dealt with the electoral reform plebiscite.

Any particular reason for this? for the last few, two elections or so, the NDP and Greens have been fighting each other for third, and the Greens have been winning the fight now, any local PEI reasons? This isn't the case in NS, and might be the case in NB, but I think we need to see what happens after the next election there. But looks like in PEI the anti-Liberal progressive vote is going Green over NDP?

It’s very simple. In the last PEI election the Greens lucked out my narrowly electing their leader while the NDP narrowly missed electing theirs. Now the Greens have the legitimacy of having a seat and scoop up the “neither red nor blue” vote

Are you thinking of New Brunswick? PEI's Green party leader got over half the vote in his seat.

[DC Al Fine]

PEI is not really the beacon of socialism. The Greens are doing well because of a desire for change and due to its cultural NIMBYism I think.

This is correct. PEI is also becoming "Vermontified" for lack of a better word. There's a decent number of Green friendly types immigrating from other provinces to work in tourism and agriculture because they like the idyllic lifestyle.

[DC Al Fine]

PEI is not really the beacon of socialism. The Greens are doing well because of a desire for change and due to its cultural NIMBYism I think.

This is correct. PEI is also becoming "Vermontified" for lack of a better word. There's a decent number of Green friendly types immigrating from other provinces to work in tourism and agriculture because they like the idyllic lifestyle.

So what you're saying is the NDP needs to get a Bernie Sanders type to run there?

Precisely

[DC Al Fine]

Not often you see two party leaders going head to head in a riding, even if one of them is DOA.

It reeks of desperation from the Liberals.  This kind of thing happens all the time actually, but almost exclusively by fringe parties.

Honestly, this is a good indicator that the Alberta Liberals are a fringe party. A relatively strong fringe party, but a fringe party nonetheless. Running one's leader against a major party leader is Christian Heritage/Marxist-Leninist/Libertarian territory.

[DC Al Fine]

I wouldn't put them into fringe party status yet. Their by-election performance was... respectable... but definitely below expectations. But yeah, it was definitely a fringe party move to run their leader.  Real parties wait for a good opportunity

I guess it depends on how one defines fringe parties. I would put them at the same level as the federal Greens.