Since Ohio is a likely Republican state now, what's the new bellwether?

[DPKdebator]

The general consensus on this site seems to be that the state of Ohio is safe for Republicans, so what would you all say is the next true bellwether state? I'm gonna go for Florida, because it's voted for the winner in every election since 1996.

[AGA]

From now on? Pennsylvania. Maybe Florida too.

[Maxwell]

I'm saying Florida.

[Fuzzy Says: "Abolish NPR!"]

I think Ohio is Lean Republican.  I'd hesitate on "Likely Republican".  Ohio isn't West Virginia.

[Suburbia]

Ohio is Lean Republican. It can go Democratic if Trump does not have his promises into legislation.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

I'm saying Florida, but don't count out Pennsylvania.

[TDAS04]

Florida or Pennsylvania.

Wisconsin is a good bet among smaller states. 

[LLR]

A) Florida has been the bellwether for at least a decade

B) No way in hell Ohio is "Likely R". That's like saying in 2009 that Indiana was "Lean D". Absurd. Just because it went for one candidate one time by a large margin doesn't mean that will continue. I'm not ready to call it anything other than Tossup unless Sherrod Brown loses by over three without a major scandal

[they don't love you like i love you]

Florida has been considered a swing state since WWII. Look at 1988. Obviously not a swing state anymore and now Likely R, right?

[Figueira]

Ohio is a still a bellwether. Let's not get ahead of ourselves.

In the long term though, I think Florida will be the longest-lasting bellwether after the present.

[The Arizonan]

Hold it! Can we at least wait until 2020? For all we know, Ohio could swing back to the Democrats if Trump doesn't deliver. I see absolutely no point in guessing right now, it'll just lead to more embarrassment for the sorry state of this forum.

What are you saying? That we make predictions and statements that turn out to be wrong, like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin being fool's good for Republicans?

For the time being, the forum should be called the Ailing Atlas Forum.

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

Obama won Michigan in 2012 by more than Trump won Ohio, and look what happened. I would actually hesitate to call it anything more than Tilt R.

[RINO Tom]

Well, Ohio isn't a Republican-leaning state now...?

[Xing]

I'd say it's reasonable to call Ohio Lean R, knowing that it could definitely swing back in 2020. I'd say Florida is probably a good bellwether going into 2020.

[SCNCmod]

PA... FL... CO.... NH..... WI.... MI

[Person Man]

PA... FL... CO.... NH..... WI.... MI

NV?

[coloradocowboi]

ATM: PA is the bellwether.

Long term, however, older, whiter states will trend towards the GOP--OH, IA, and WI for sure, and probably PA, MI, and MN although to a lesser extent given that they are better educated and have faster growing minority populations.

In opposition to that, I do believe CO and NV, probably VA and possibly AZ and GA will trend fast away from the GOP due to rapidly diversifying, young populations.

In 2024, I think it's almost certain (assuming no Trump and a neutral year) that IA and OH will be leans R, WI may very well be as well, with PA, MI, and MN as tossups. CO and NV will be pretty close to safe D, VA likely as well, with GA and AZ (maybe maybe maybe TX) as tossups.

That leaves two states that are swing states and don't fall into those categories, NH and FL.

NH is a bellwether because it has a very quirky political culture and retail politics goes a long way there.

FL is demographically a bellwether because a disproportionate part of its population increase is from cranky whites moving south to retire and Cuban Americans, slowing the tide of demographic change towards the Dems there.

[Wiz in Wis]

When you compare the 2004/2016 results, you find that WI, MI, and PA were all really close nationally, and then Obama opened a massive PVI advantage in 08/12 in the upper Midwest. This is more a regression to the mean than anything else for those states, they are naturally close, especially when the Dem fails to campaign there. I think MI/WI/MN have a slightly different feel than OH/PA. I think there is more nuance here than we know. 

[Flake]

It's been two months, waaaaay too early to say that Ohio is a likely Republican state forever.

[SCNCmod]

ATM: PA is the bellwether.

Long term, however, older, whiter states will trend towards the GOP--OH, IA, and WI for sure, and probably PA, MI, and MN although to a lesser extent given that they are better educated and have faster growing minority populations.

In opposition to that, I do believe CO and NV, probably VA and possibly AZ and GA will trend fast away from the GOP due to rapidly diversifying, young populations.

In 2024, I think it's almost certain (assuming no Trump and a neutral year) that IA and OH will be leans R, WI may very well be as well, with PA, MI, and MN as tossups. CO and NV will be pretty close to safe D, VA likely as well, with GA and AZ (maybe maybe maybe TX) as tossups.

That leaves two states that are swing states and don't fall into those categories, NH and FL.

NH is a bellwether because it has a very quirky political culture and retail politics goes a long way there.

FL is demographically a bellwether because a disproportionate part of its population increase is from cranky whites moving south to retire and Cuban Americans, slowing the tide of demographic change towards the Dems there.

Florida needs some strong Democratic politicians to emerge.  In such a big state, I'm surprised we don't see more strong National candidates from the Dem side. A strong popular Dem Governor would do a lot to shift the state to Dems IMO.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

It's been two months, waaaaay too early to say that Ohio is a likely Republican state forever.

You could make the case that it's been a lean R state for a while now and Obama only won it twice because he won solid victories both times (+7 and +4). It was closer to the center during Bush's tenure.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Minnesota.  It was the state that voted closest to the nation as a whole in 2016.  Pennsylvania, Florida, and (especially) Ohio were significantly more Republican than the nation as a whole.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Minnesota.  It was the state that voted closest to the nation as a whole in 2016.  Pennsylvania, Florida, and (especially) Ohio were significantly more Republican than the nation as a whole.

But I'm inclined to believe that's more of a coincidence. Minnesota isn't much of a demographic or ideological cross-section of the country.

[Mr. Smith]

Nevada, just as reliable as Ohio since 1912, and last time it failed...was also the last time Virginia split from the whole South, Wisconsin voted opposite the norm [1964 notwithstanding], and Washington didn't have all its Electors go for the state carrier...o name a few things.

[BigSkyBob]

New Hampshire.