Since Ohio is a likely Republican state now, what's the new bellwether?

[Figueira]

Nevada, just as reliable as Ohio since 1912, and last time it failed...was also the last time Virginia split from the whole South, Wisconsin voted opposite the norm [1964 notwithstanding], and Washington didn't have all its Electors go for the state carrier...o name a few things.

Nevada voted for Bush in 2000 and Clinton in 2016, so it failed one of those times no matter how you slice it.

[RINO Tom]

I love how when Democrats won Ohio, it was because there were just too many cosmopolitan areas and Ohio was just too enlightened to fall for the GOP's anti-intellectualism, but how you'd think the entire state is a distressed factory neighborhood in Youngstown.  Maybe neither are true.

[elcorazon]

North Carolina, by 2020 will be the bellwether

[Coolface Sock #42069]

I love how when Democrats won Ohio, it was because there were just too many cosmopolitan areas and Ohio was just too enlightened to fall for the GOP's anti-intellectualism, but how you'd think the entire state is a distressed factory neighborhood in Youngstown.  Maybe neither are true.

Yeah, this forum's opinion of states can basically be boiled down to:

This state voted for my party? FF state. Everyone's so smart and enlightened.
This state didn't vote for my party? HP state. Literally just like Mordor and filled with demons and weeping and gnashing of teeth. Nothing good happens in or comes out of this state.

BRTD gets a lot of crap for this, but look how many Republicans suddenly started caring about unemployed people from abandoned industrial towns after they voted for Trump. Now, they're "people facing economic anxiety since their high-paying jobs have disappeared and incomes haven't gone up for 40 years" instead of "freeloaders who want more welfare" like they were in 2012 when they voted Democrat.

[Vosem]

Florida. And Florida's been the "real" bellwether at the presidential level since 1996.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

2020

Dem nominee 279
Prez Trump 191

NC, Iowa depends on our Senate candidates in 2020

[Pennsylvania Deplorable]

Ohio is going the way of Missouri (voted the same way as the country in all but one election from 1904 to 2004, voted for Trump by almost 20 points. Florida seems most likely, although North Carolina and Pennsylvania are shaping up to be bellwethers due to a rightward trend in PA and a leftward one in NC.

[Nyvin]

Ohio is going the way of Missouri (voted the same way as the country in all but one election from 1904 to 2004, voted for Trump by almost 20 points. Florida seems most likely, although North Carolina and Pennsylvania are shaping up to be bellwethers due to a rightward trend in PA and a leftward one in NC.

I think there's too many big metros in Ohio for it to get to Missouri's level, but who knows I guess.

[Pericles]

Florida has been slightly more Republican than the nation in recent years. I'd say Pennsylvania.