List of 35 pieces of so-called conventional wisdom that were false.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

In no particular order:

1. Hillary is toxic in Colorado
2. The only people who care about Hillary's emails are people who would never vote for her anyway.
3. Pennsylvania is a place republicans only campaign in to make the media say they're doing really well nationally ("Well, if they're going to Pennsylvania, they must have secured the battlegrounds already!!!"), not a place they could ever actually win.
4. Michigan polling always underestimates the democratic party.
5. Sanders supporters would never vote for Trump because Sanders worded his opposition to Trump in a very strong matter.
6. High Obama approvals equals a Hillary victory.
7. Nate Silver is a human god who can predict an election correctly even when everyone else does not.
8. Ron Johnson is hopeless for reelection.
9. Many, many republicans are fleeing by the day to Johnson, McMullin, and Clinton, and there is no way Trump can get them back.
10. The Presidential debates play a large role in determining the outcome of the election.
11. Hillary's republican courtship strategy is genius.
12. For every WWC Obama-Trump voter, there are at least two College-Educated Romney-Clinton voters.
13. Florida has too many Latinos to go R anymore.
14. Arizona is ready to vote for a Democrat.
15. Utah, due to its strong Mormon Values, will not vote for Trump.
16. Romney achieved the republican ceiling in the white vote in every state.
17. Hillary will overperform Obama among whites nationally.
18. Hillary will overperform Obama among latinos nationally.
19. Trump might not even beat Johnson and/or Stein among black voters.
20. Trump University will be a significant issue in the entirety of the presidential campaign
21. Rubio, who was soundly defeated by Trump in the primaries, can kiss his senate seat goodbye.
22. Kirkpatrick will give McCain a real challenge.
23. Voters will actually care about the Merrick Garland nomination holdup, and will care about it so much that not even Grassley is safe.
24. JBE winning means Dems have something of a shot to win the LA senate race.
25. Trump cannot control himself long enough to win an election.
26. Missouri may have been trending R since '92, but Hillary will reverse it big time in 2016.
27. Hillary will do significantly better than "Generic D" in most southern states.
28. Texas is competitive.
29. It is impossible for republicans to hold the senate.
30. Hillary is a lock to win the GE.
31. People care that Trump was part of the birther controversy.
32. Hillary will win the democratic primary by more than 20%.
33. Trump cannot even come within 5% in NH.
34. Maine is a strongly democratic state.
35. The blue wall exists.

[White Trash]

24 was true though, the local party just screwed up and didn't field a strong enough bench.

[Pericles]

They were right Trump couldn't control himself,  just it didn't end up costing him the election.

[elcorazon]

most of these were never conventional wisdom

[Averroës Nix]

"And for this next piece on conventional wisdom, we've called in Wulfric, the Atlas forum's resident expert..."

[Averroës Nix]

7. Nate Silver is a human god who can predict an election correctly even when everyone else does not.

This is particularly frustrating. The dominant school of "conventional wisdom" prior to the election, at least among professional commentators, was to ridicule Nate Silver because his polls-based model showed a substantial chance of a Trump victory throughout the campaign. Similarly, we've seen commentators ridicule Nate Silver since the election because his forecast stated that Clinton had a higher chance of winning in both the national popular vote and the electoral vote despite the fact that his forecast on the eve of the election continued to show a substantial chance that Trump would win. It's an object lesson in statistical illiteracy.

[EliteLX]

most of these were never conventional wisdom

Uhh.. just about every one of those were pal.

[BuckeyeNut]

most of these were never conventional wisdom

Uhh.. just about every one of those were pal.

Repeating something with frequency doesn't make it wise, even if it makes it "conventional."

Six, though, was definitely conventional wisdom, and the lack of follow through is rather astounding. Incumbent Presidential approval has been the most accurate predictor for ... ever, basically.

[SWE]

36. America holds free and fair elections

[Figueira]

most of these were never conventional wisdom

Uhh.. just about every one of those were pal.

When were "Florida has too many Latinos to go R anymore" and "Utah will not vote for Trump" and "It is impossible for Republicans to hold the Senate" ever "conventional wsdom"?

[elcorazon]

In no particular order:

1. Hillary is toxic in Colorado (not conventional wisdom)
2. The only people who care about Hillary's emails are people who would never vote for her anyway. (not conventional wisdom)
3. Pennsylvania is a place republicans only campaign in to make the media say they're doing really well nationally ("Well, if they're going to Pennsylvania, they must have secured the battlegrounds already!!!"), not a place they could ever actually win. (maybe)
4. Michigan polling always underestimates the democratic party. (not conventional wisdom)
5. Sanders supporters would never vote for Trump because Sanders worded his opposition to Trump in a very strong matter. (not conventional wisdom)
6. High Obama approvals equals a Hillary victory. yes
7. Nate Silver is a human god who can predict an election correctly even when everyone else does not. (not conventional wisdom)
8. Ron Johnson is hopeless for reelection. can't really say
9. Many, many republicans are fleeing by the day to Johnson, McMullin, and Clinton, and there is no way Trump can get them back. (not conventional wisdom)
10. The Presidential debates play a large role in determining the outcome of the election. somewhat
11. Hillary's republican courtship strategy is genius. (not conventional wisdom)
12. For every WWC Obama-Trump voter, there are at least two College-Educated Romney-Clinton voters. (not conventional wisdom)
13. Florida has too many Latinos to go R anymore. (not conventional wisdom)
14. Arizona is ready to vote for a Democrat. (not conventional wisdom)
15. Utah, due to its strong Mormon Values, will not vote for Trump. (not conventional wisdom)
16. Romney achieved the republican ceiling in the white vote in every state. somewhat
17. Hillary will overperform Obama among whites nationally. maybe
18. Hillary will overperform Obama among latinos nationally. yes
19. Trump might not even beat Johnson and/or Stein among black voters. maybe
20. Trump University will be a significant issue in the entirety of the presidential campaign (not conventional wisdom)
21. Rubio, who was soundly defeated by Trump in the primaries, can kiss his senate seat goodbye. not sure
22. Kirkpatrick will give McCain a real challenge. not sure but I don't think it was CW
23. Voters will actually care about the Merrick Garland nomination holdup, and will care about it so much that not even Grassley is safe. (again I don't think this was CW, but maybe)
24. JBE winning means Dems have something of a shot to win the LA senate race. (I don't think I ever heard that theory, but regardless, not conventional wisdom)
25. Trump cannot control himself long enough to win an election. yes
26. Missouri may have been trending R since '92, but Hillary will reverse it big time in 2016. (not conventional wisdom)
27. Hillary will do significantly better than "Generic D" in most southern states. maybe
28. Texas is competitive. maybe (and arguably not totally disproved given the results overall)
29. It is impossible for republicans to hold the senate. (not conventional wisdom)
30. Hillary is a lock to win the GE. somewhat
31. People care that Trump was part of the birther controversy. somewhat
32. Hillary will win the democratic primary by more than 20%. I dunno if I heard that specific # as CW
33. Trump cannot even come within 5% in NH. similar to above, frankly only here did that seem to hold any sway - most CW said NH was a swing state
34. Maine is a strongly democratic state. agree
35. The blue wall exists. somewhat

[Blue3]

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They do.

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I don't think anyone ever said this.

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It was more of a swing state than Ohio or Iowa.

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It did... but look at the huge drop in support for the GOP nominee.

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No but it was a lot better for Dems than people expected.

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They do, but not enough people apparently.

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It still is, just not as strong.




And a lot of the others I thought were idiotic even before they were proven false.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

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They do. Clinton won all 3 debates, but Trump still won the election. The debates didn't matter this year. At all.

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I don't think anyone ever said this. The Clinton campaign believed it

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It was more of a swing state than Ohio or Iowa. but it still voted Trump

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It did... but look at the huge drop in support for the GOP nominee. still, it voted for him

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No but it was a lot better for Dems than people expected. Uh, maybe. Hillary actually only got Obama's 08 number, third parties dragged Trump down to 52%. Also, most people expected the dems to pick up the 23rd house seat, and they didn't.

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They do, but not enough people apparently.

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It still is, just not as strong. 2.9% margin does not make a state strong D.




And a lot of the others I thought were idiotic even before they were proven false.

[Stranger in a strange land]

1 is true, it's just that Trump was even more toxic
10 is probably still true also: Hillary would probably have lost even worse, including losing the PV, without the debates.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

most of these were never conventional wisdom

Uhh.. just about every one of those were pal.

*was

[Devout Centrist]

36. Democrats can win an election

[Stranger in a strange land]

36. Democrats can win an election

Thinking you can't lose an election is a great way to lose an election. The 2016 and 2008 Clinton campaigns are Exhibits A and B of this.

[RI]

most of these were never conventional wisdom

They were on this forum, at least.

[elcorazon]

most of these were never conventional wisdom

They were on this forum, at least.

If one person thinks these things, it doesn't make it conventional wisdom.