VA-GOV 2017: Who will win? Gillespie or Northam?

[Suburbia]

This is it. November 3, 2017. A few days left until when Virginians go to cast their ballots for the 73rd Virginia Governor. A nasty, bitter, close race between Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam and former RNC chairman Ed Gillespie. Who will win the 2017 Virginia gubernatorial election?

[Bidenworth2020]

I am right now oh so slight lean Northam. this DNC bombshell will really lower turnout

[Suburbia]

I am right now oh so slight lean Northam. this DNC bombshell will really lower turnout

The Sanders-Perriello voters may stay home...

[TPIG]

The momentum is on Gillespie's side, and I think he'll eek out a win.

[Keep cool-idge]

The momentum is on Gillespie's side, and I think he'll eek out a win.

[Young Conservative]

The Democrats should have had a MASSIVE enthusiasm advantage, but they nominated Northam and then the news about the DNC came out. I think Gillespie has the momentum, but I am still unsure about the result. Utter Tossup. Voted Gillespie out of hope.

Still pessimistic.

[KingSweden]

Northam. Though by a narrower margin than expected

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Northam. Though by a narrower margin than expected

Depends what you mean by expected since it seems like most Republicans are expecting a Gillespie win

I think most predicting Northram winning are predicting anything from a 2-4 point margin on average.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Ask me again on Monday when we get some last minute polls. Anyway I would expect anything from a 2 point Northram win to a 1 point Gillespie win. Anyway I fully expect that whichever party wins the Governor race will win the LG race as well.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Lean Northam, though tightening and just a step away from tilt. But which idiot thinks that Cliff Hyra is going to win?

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Lean Northam, though tightening and just a step away from tilt. But which idiot thinks that Cliff Hyra is going to win?

Probably noone. Whenever you post a poll on atlas you will always get a small % of posters that will pick the troll option.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Tilt Northam.

[Mr.Phips]

Gillespie by not a chin.

[Panhandle Progressive]

All of the statewide races in VA will be easy holds for the party. The Democrats will win each by a minimum of 6% and a maximum of 10%. This is my final prediction.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I can't believe two people have actually picked Hyra.

[Panhandle Progressive]

I can't believe two people have actually picked Hyra.

Most likely people trolling. I doubt anyone genuinely believes that Hyra will win. Hell, most voters probably don't even know who he is or what he stands for.

[Skill and Chance]

Northam, but only by 0.5-2.0 max.  Basically a repeat of 2014 with more accurate late polls.  He'll be saved by Fairfax and Hampton Roads (hometown margin in Norfolk/Eastern Shore, keeping VA Beach basically tied), but it was utter stupidity to tell ~40% of the state to shove it the week before the election.  This should have been all statewide Dems by +8-12 with the HoD on a knife's edge of flipping. 

Also rather confident Vogel sneaks through by 0.5-2% now.

[progressive85]

I wouldn't be surprised if its a Republican landslide.  That's how badly the Democratic Party sucks.

[Skill and Chance]

I wouldn't be surprised if its a Republican landslide.  That's how badly the Democratic Party sucks.

Well, one interpretation of 2016 is that Trump really was a bad candidate and Republicans would be as strong as they were in the 1920's right now without him.  If Gillespie wins big, that would basically confirm that view, and Democrats likely won't be winning anything outside of their base states until the next time the economy crashes.

[History505]

I would say lean Northam/tossup.

[Shilly]

Look around, we live in hell. Of course Gillespie's going to win.

[Person Man]

I wouldn't be surprised if its a Republican landslide.  That's how badly the Democratic Party sucks.

Well, one interpretation of 2016 is that Trump really was a bad candidate and Republicans would be as strong as they were in the 1920's right now without him.  If Gillespie wins big, that would basically confirm that view, and Democrats likely won't be winning anything outside of their base states until the next time the economy crashes.

Or arguably even if he wins at all.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

it's 2017

whoever runs the craziest campaign wins

gillepsie's civil war reenactment campaign is crazier so he wins

[Maxwell]

Gun to my head? Northam.

Based on my darkest of dark instincts? Gillespie.

Tilting Northam now, but a Gillespie win would not surprise me at all.

[Unapologetic Chinaperson]

I said in the other thread that these days, if the polling is close, the Republican will win by default.

So Gillespie. (Though I favored Northam previously)