VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)

[Figueira]

I'm starting to think Perriello is actually favored.

[Virginiá]

Some key points - He sounds very VERY progressive, guess Tom & Ralph are both swinging to more left than one another dragging Virginia to be more & more liberal

[post]

Shadows what was that post even about? You should include links to what you're reading and/or structure it better.

[Shadows]

Some key points - He sounds very VERY progressive, guess Tom & Ralph are both swinging to more left than one another dragging Virginia to be more & more liberal

[post]

Shadows what was that post even about? You should include links to what you're reading and/or structure it better.

Sorry !

[Zioneer]

Some key points - He sounds very VERY progressive, guess Tom & Ralph are both swinging to more left than one another dragging Virginia to be more & more liberal

[post]

Shadows what was that post even about? You should include links to what you're reading and/or structure it better.

I've seen some of that on Perriello's Reddit "Ask Me Anything" post, so it might be from there.

[RogueBeaver]

Stars & Bars fan talks to Thernovich about ceucks.

[Deblano]

Oh Lord.

http://www.fauquier.com/prince_william_times/governor-hopeful-corey-stewart-taking-heat-for-the-term-cuckservative/article_6fe0376a-10c4-11e7-b909-db18779cb941.html

[heatcharger]

Northam and Fairfax handily win an Alexandria St. Patrick's Day straw poll. Fantastic news!

Obviously a straw poll means very little, but it confirms my thinking that Perriello needs to run far ahead of Bernie Sanders did in rural areas. We'll see if he can.

[RogueBeaver]

Long 538 Perriello profile is somewhat newsy: Our Revolution may endorse Perriello soon, per Jeff Weaver. Perhaps even Sanders himself.

[MAINEiac4434]

Long 538 Perriello profile is somewhat newsy: Our Revolution may endorse Perriello soon, per Jeff Weaver. Perhaps even Sanders himself.

How much of a boon will that be in a state Hillary beat Bernie in by 30 points?

[publicunofficial]

Long 538 Perriello profile is somewhat newsy: Our Revolution may endorse Perriello soon, per Jeff Weaver. Perhaps even Sanders himself.

How much of a boon will that be in a state Hillary beat Bernie in by 30 points?

It's pretty hard to spin having the endorsements of both Bernie Sanders AND John Podesta as being a negative.

[Shadows]

Long 538 Perriello profile is somewhat newsy: Our Revolution may endorse Perriello soon, per Jeff Weaver. Perhaps even Sanders himself.

How much of a boon will that be in a state Hillary beat Bernie in by 30 points?

Massive boon, for one VA was in Super Tuesday & Sanders gave up on the state so the real margin could actually be 10-15-20 odd instead of 30, Sanders' supporters are probably likely to be much more engaged than Clinton's.

You can also add Tom's endorsements from Team Obama & many in the establishment wing. If he can sweep or get most (say 3/4th) of the Sanders voters he is guaranteed a win. In the last poll, Tom led by only 10% odd among Sanders voters while Ralph had a 10% odd lead among Clinton's supporters. (both were taking votes from both factions).

Clinton supporters' in general have a very high favorability of Sanders' , 90% odd so it is unlikely they will sour if Sanders' wing coalesces behind Tom. You can also add the huge influx of small donations which is going to critical !

[Holmes]

An endorsement from Sanders is good for Periello but I reject the whole "the real margin could actually be 10 - 20 points" argument. Clinton is a real good fit among Virginia Democrats. If Sanders tried harder, he might have made inroads in the western half of the state, but there's not a lot of voters there to begin with, and they were already voting for Trump anyway because it was an open primary.

[MAINEiac4434]

Long 538 Perriello profile is somewhat newsy: Our Revolution may endorse Perriello soon, per Jeff Weaver. Perhaps even Sanders himself.

How much of a boon will that be in a state Hillary beat Bernie in by 30 points?

It's pretty hard to spin having the endorsements of both Bernie Sanders AND John Podesta as being a negative.

Touche.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Yeah also let's try not to turn literally every single Democratic primary into a proxy battle for Sanders/Hillary pls

I mean I'll be really pissed if "SOSHUL LIBRUL/FISCULL CONSERTIVE" Ralph Northam wins (more so than when Perez beat Ellison, even), but if he does it won't be because Hillary Clinton secretly wants to punish Sanders voters or whatever.

[Figueira]

Long 538 Perriello profile is somewhat newsy: Our Revolution may endorse Perriello soon, per Jeff Weaver. Perhaps even Sanders himself.

How much of a boon will that be in a state Hillary beat Bernie in by 30 points?

I'd imagine that Sanders currently has net-positive favorables among Virginia Democratic primary voters.

[Gass3268]

The main distinction here appears to be folks inside Virginia (Kaine, Warner, McAuliffe) are backing Northman and folks outside Virginia (Team Obama and Team Sanders) are backing Perriello.

[OneJ]

Does anyone know who black Virginians are backing between Northam and Perriello? Just wondering.

[Skill and Chance]

Does anyone know who black Virginians are backing between Northam and Perriello? Just wondering.

In polling, they are somewhere between tossup and Lean Perriello.

[Deblano]

Yeah also let's try not to turn literally every single Democratic primary into a proxy battle for Sanders/Hillary pls

I mean I'll be really pissed if "SOSHUL LIBRUL/FISCULL CONSERTIVE" Ralph Northam wins (more so than when Perez beat Ellison, even), but if he does it won't be because Hillary Clinton secretly wants to punish Sanders voters or whatever.

LOL too late.

There's a bit of that vibe as well in the New Jersey Gubernatorial primaries on the Democratic side.

[Skill and Chance]

Yeah also let's try not to turn literally every single Democratic primary into a proxy battle for Sanders/Hillary pls

I mean I'll be really pissed if "SOSHUL LIBRUL/FISCULL CONSERTIVE" Ralph Northam wins (more so than when Perez beat Ellison, even), but if he does it won't be because Hillary Clinton secretly wants to punish Sanders voters or whatever.

LOL too late.

There's a bit of that vibe as well in the New Jersey Gubernatorial primaries on the Democratic side.

Northam vs. Perriello is more like "more Clinton than Clinton" vs. "halfway between Clinton and Sanders."  Full on Sanders populism won't work in a state with as many wealthy Dems as VA.

[Gass3268]

Bernie Sanders endorses Perriello

[Blair]

Bernie Sanders endorses Perriello

Interesting but not a shocking move.

Clinton actually unified the Obama wing of the party, with the older and actual centrist DNC wing of the party, so it's a mistake to see as every race as being 'Clinton v Sanders'

[MAINEiac4434]

Bernie Sanders endorses Perriello

Not surprising. As others have said, having both Podesta and Sanders (not including many members of Obamaworld) is nothing but a boon for Perriello.

[Suburbia]

It may be another proxy battle between Sanders and Clinton. Reliving the 2016 Democratic presidential primaries.

Tom Perriello has some good ideas, but he may be too anti-gun and anti-military to win in Virginia. The Democratic primary is Lean Northam at this point.

We'll see. I think Northam can do well in the rural areas of Virginia, but Perriello could do well with the anti-gun NOVA suburbanites that have flooded Virginia over the past couple of years.

However, Ed Gillespie probably wants Perriello as the Democratic opponent in this open seat. RGA would pour money into this race, and yes, Republicans can still win Virginia despite it being an off-year in Trump/Pence-era politics.

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/04/bernie-sanders-endorses-tom-perriello-236858

[Gass3268]

It may be another proxy battle between Sanders and Clinton. Reliving the 2016 Democratic presidential primaries.

Tom Perriello has some good ideas, but he may be too anti-gun and anti-military to win in Virginia. The Democratic primary is Lean Northam at this point.

We'll see. I think Northam can do well in the rural areas of Virginia, but Perriello could do well with the anti-gun NOVA suburbanites that have flooded Virginia over the past couple of years.

However, Ed Gillespie probably wants Perriello as the Democratic opponent in this open seat. RGA would pour money into this race, and yes, Republicans can still win Virginia despite it being an off-year in Trump/Pence-era politics.

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/04/bernie-sanders-endorses-tom-perriello-236858

Podesta endorsing Perriello makes it impossible for this to become a Sanders/Clinton proxy battle.