VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)

[Panhandle Progressive]

Corey Stewart (who narrowly lost the Republican primary to Gillespie) who is currently running for the U.S. Senate next year, responded far worse than Donald Trump himself.

https://www.facebook.com/CoreyStewartVA/videos/1893024764047688/

WTF Republicans. YOU.FRAKING.SUCK.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Hopefully these people who were killed and injured in the tragic events in Charlottesville Virginia did not die and get hurt in vain. Hopefully their legacy will be boosting Northam in the polls, while bringing down Gillespie.

[_]

Hopefully these people who were killed and injured in the tragic events in Charlottesville Virginia did not die and get hurt in vain. Hopefully their legacy will be boosting Northam in the polls, while bringing down Gillespie.

Seriously?  People died and you hope that their deaths boost someone's polling numbers?!

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Hopefully these people who were killed and injured in the tragic events in Charlottesville Virginia did not die and get hurt in vain. Hopefully their legacy will be boosting Northam in the polls, while bringing down Gillespie.

Seriously?  People died and you hope that their deaths boost someone's polling numbers?!

Sometimes good things come from tragic events.

[Lord Admirale]

I'm not sure if this will help Northam, Jay Nixon didn't fair too well following Ferguson. 

[Virginiá]

I'm not sure if this will help Northam, Jay Nixon didn't fair too well following Ferguson. 

Not really the same type of situation. This was a clear attack by a white supremacist. Ferguson was a whole different ball game, not only in what people were protesting about but the effects of the protest itself. The narrative here definitely is not on the side of the white supremacists nor even Trump, insofar as he is relevant here.

Plus, I think it goes without saying, but Virginia is much different than Missouri. Namely, much more Democratic and thus likely to respond in different ways.

[PragmaticPopulist]

I'm not sure if this will help Northam, Jay Nixon didn't fair too well following Ferguson. 

Not really the same type of situation. This was a clear attack by a white supremacist. Ferguson was a whole different ball game, not only in what people were protesting about but the effects of the protest itself. The narrative here definitely is not on the side of the white supremacists nor even Trump, insofar as he is relevant here.

Plus, I think it goes without saying, but Virginia is much different than Missouri. Namely, much more Democratic and thus likely to respond in different ways.

Yeah. I don't think this will have much of an effect on the race. If it somehow hurts McCauliffe's approval ratings, it could hurt Northam, but I don't see what McCauliffe did that would've caused his approval ratings to drop, except railing against Neo-Nazis.

[Tekken_Guy]

Yeah, after Charlottesville, Gillespie is toast.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Yeah, after Charlottesville, Gillespie is toast.

Woot woot!

[Don Vito Corleone]

Yeah, after Charlottesville, Gillespie is toast.

Why?

[KingSweden]

Yeah, after Charlottesville, Gillespie is toast.

I wouldn't go that far, but it certainly doesn't help him

[fluffypanther19]

Yeah, after Charlottesville, Gillespie is toast.

I wouldn't go that far, but it certainly doesn't help him

Yeah, but this race was always going to be a huge lift for him anyway.

[Suburbia]

If Corey Stewart was the VA GOP gubernatorial nominee, I wonder if the VA GOP would have forced him to drop out of the race?

[Panhandle Progressive]

If Corey Stewart was the VA GOP gubernatorial nominee, I wonder if the VA GOP would have forced him to drop out of the race?

I've been thinking about this one ever since Charlottesville march/attack. But Stewart is now running for the U.S. Senate against Kaine. I kinda hope he is the nominee against Kaine. Stewart would be even more doomed than E.W. Jackson was for Lt. Governor four years ago.

[erſatz-york]

With the polling we've seen regarding public opinion on both Trump's response to the events in Charlottesville and the debate regarding the removal of Confederate statues, I'm not sure that Gillespie is harmed by this.

A plurality (49%) of Americans either agree with Trump's assessment of the violence in Charlottesville or are to his right.

Trump's approval rating has increased since the events in Charlottesville.

Anywhere from a plurality-near-majority to three-fifths of Americans disapprove of removing Confederate statues, while Americans are almost united in their disdain for white nationalism and the KKK.

Regarding the first poll, 40% of Americans agreed with Trump's assertion that "many sides" were responsible for the violence in Charlottesville, while 9% believed that ANTIFA et. al. were primarily responsible for the violence.

Now, look at what Gillespie has done in the aftermath of the violence in Charlottesville.

- He has condemned white nationalism, neo-Nazi ideology, and the KKK by name
- He has not directly attacked the President
- He has adopted a position supporting the rights of the localities involved to make their own decisions about the statues, while generally opposing the removal of the statues himself.

AFAICT, Gillespie has checked all the boxes. Meanwhile, Northam has taken a trendy (among liberal/media elites) but hardline stance in choosing to wholeheartedly support historical revisionism and iconoclasm. Nate Silver tells us that kind of stance won't be taken well by independents and only tepidly accepted by many Democrats.

[Holmes]

I would be careful saying Trump's bounce from a -25% approval to -20% is due to his response when it was probably regression to the norm after his health care slump.

I would also say thinking some Republican who already lost statewide once could win in a state Trump lost and has a -20% or lower approval rating is delusion.

[erſatz-york]

I would be careful saying Trump's bounce from a -25% approval to -20% is due to his response when it was probably regression to the norm after his health care slump.

I would also say thinking some Republican who already lost statewide once could win in a state Trump lost and has a -20% or lower approval rating is delusion.

I definitely agree that Gillespie must wage an uphill battle if he wants to be Governor, and that Northam will be the likely victor of this race barring a major development in Gillespie's favor. I would caution, however, that earlier posters have concluded that Gillespie looks and sounds a lot better than Northam in a debate.

He has, however, not been hurt by the events of the past week if the statistics are to be believed.

Regarding your first point, you are probably right.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

not even a majority of black voters support getting rid of Confederate monuments.
Tell me again why Democrats see pushing this as a political winner?

[Dr. Arch]

I would be careful saying Trump's bounce from a -25% approval to -20% is due to his response when it was probably regression to the norm after his health care slump.

I would also say thinking some Republican who already lost statewide once could win in a state Trump lost and has a -20% or lower approval rating is delusion.

I definitely agree that Gillespie must wage an uphill battle if he wants to be Governor, and that Northam will be the likely victor of this race barring a major development in Gillespie's favor. I would caution, however, that earlier posters have concluded that Gillespie looks and sounds a lot better than Northam in a debate.

He has, however, not been hurt by the events of the past week if the statistics are to be believed.

Regarding your first point, you are probably right.

Debates don't really matter; 2016 taught us that.

[BuckeyeNut]

I would be careful saying Trump's bounce from a -25% approval to -20% is due to his response when it was probably regression to the norm after his health care slump.

I would also say thinking some Republican who already lost statewide once could win in a state Trump lost and has a -20% or lower approval rating is delusion.

I definitely agree that Gillespie must wage an uphill battle if he wants to be Governor, and that Northam will be the likely victor of this race barring a major development in Gillespie's favor. I would caution, however, that earlier posters have concluded that Gillespie looks and sounds a lot better than Northam in a debate.

He has, however, not been hurt by the events of the past week if the statistics are to be believed.

Regarding your first point, you are probably right.

Debates don't really matter; 2016 taught us that.

It didn't, really. But, regardless, no one cares about gubernatorial debates.

[erſatz-york]

I would be careful saying Trump's bounce from a -25% approval to -20% is due to his response when it was probably regression to the norm after his health care slump.

I would also say thinking some Republican who already lost statewide once could win in a state Trump lost and has a -20% or lower approval rating is delusion.

I definitely agree that Gillespie must wage an uphill battle if he wants to be Governor, and that Northam will be the likely victor of this race barring a major development in Gillespie's favor. I would caution, however, that earlier posters have concluded that Gillespie looks and sounds a lot better than Northam in a debate.

He has, however, not been hurt by the events of the past week if the statistics are to be believed.

Regarding your first point, you are probably right.

Debates don't really matter; 2016 taught us that.

That was because both candidates had been in the public eye for decades.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

not even a majority of black voters support getting rid of Confederate monuments.
Tell me again why Democrats see pushing this as a political winner?

Yeah, Bannon was right on that one.

[Virginiá]

Yeah, Bannon was right on that one.

It's pretty interesting how basically the only people not seriously affected by this are the actual voters. I'm inclined to think that they believe it is not good, but not such a big deal, or that a lot of people do think it is a big deal, but almost all those people already disapprove of Trump. Currently leaning towards the latter.

I think what's left of Trump's base right now are those who will only turn on him if there is a recession, or some seriously bungled disaster, or something like that. Either that or attrition due to years of Trump's incompetence and failure to make good on his promises.

[Deblano]

not even a majority of black voters support getting rid of Confederate monuments.
Tell me again why Democrats see pushing this as a political winner?

While it is a noble cause, I do agree that this is turning into a petty wedge issue.

Our roads are crumbling, our civil liberties are weakening, and the executive branch continues to get more powerful. I could give a rats ass about statues.

[Roblox]

official VA GOP twitter basically calling Ralph Northam a race traitor  loool

You must be logged in to read this quote.

A month or two ago, for reasons, I was reading a post Larry Sabato wrote in late October of 2008, when he moved Virginia from "toss-up" to "Lean democratic" in the presidential race. He said that the Virginia GOP was failing to adapt to the way the state was changing, choosing instead to stick to their extremist ways, and that could cost the GOP there. Almost 9 years later, those words are prescient.