VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)

[The Other Castro]

Ed Gillespie is running an ad with translations for Spanish, but also for Korean which you don't really see every day.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jXyhJ9c_i30
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N0qYhoLI8vQ

[Shadows]

Democrat Ralph Northam has outspent rival Tom Perriello by more than 2 to 1 on TV advertising  their media tracking showed Northam had spent $1.2 million while Perriello has spent more than $500,000.

http://www.newsplex.com/content/news/Northam-outspending-Perriello-in-governors-race-422823714.html

Democratic gubernatorial candidate Tom Perriello has sold his financial holdings in a construction company interested in building President Donald Trump’s wall along the Mexican border and that has worked with Dominion Energy, a Perriello punching bag, on energy projects in Virginia.

In the Democratic primary, Perriello has highlighted his opposition to the Atlantic Coast Pipeline and Mountain Valley Pipeline projects as a key difference between his  and that of Ralph S. Northam. Taking a more establishment-friendly line , Northam has said they should be guided by sound science that protects the environment while arguing a governor has no authority over the federally approved projects. Perriello also has vowed to forgo political donations from Dominion.

http://www.richmond.com/news/virginia/perriello-sold-financial-stake-in-company-linked-to-pipeline-and/article_57969229-67c9-5102-9af1-ee81dc7609cf.html

[SoLongAtlas]

Link to the Lt. Gov. forum at Mason next week https://schar.gmu.edu/ltgov

Info if you want to go:

Date: May 23, 2017

Time: 6:30pm - 9:30pm

Location: George Mason University - Fairfax Campus

[The Other Castro]

Mark Murray @mmurraypolitics
Internal Northam poll (May 15-17) has Northam +17 among LVs -- 50%-33%.

That's in contrast to today's WaPo poll, which had Perriello +2

https://twitter.com/mmurraypolitics/status/865288534466457600

[Holmes]

Lots of conflicting numbers floating around.

[_]

Lots of conflicting numbers floating around.

Makes it far more interesting than the GOP Primary.

[Deblano]

Siobhan Dunnavant Withdraws [Bryce Reeves] Reeves Endorsement for LG

https://bearingdrift.com/2017/05/20/siobhan-dunnavan-withdraws-reeves-endorsement/

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[Skill and Chance]

Lots of conflicting numbers floating around.

It is hard for me to see Perriello losing this if he leads in the public polls going in.

[Virginiá]

I'd have thought Vogel would have dropped out after those dirty tricks late last year: https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/the-gop-race-for-lieutenant-governor-is-getting-ugly-in-virginia/2016/12/31/95c84ed0-cf84-11e6-a747-d03044780a02_story.html?utm_term=.e92b5d3d9b21

Granted, I haven't followed it since that article, so I don't know if it turned out to not be her, although the stupidity of this case would suggest it was indeed Vogel.

[Skill and Chance]

I'd have thought Vogel would have dropped out after those dirty tricks late last year: https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/the-gop-race-for-lieutenant-governor-is-getting-ugly-in-virginia/2016/12/31/95c84ed0-cf84-11e6-a747-d03044780a02_story.html?utm_term=.e92b5d3d9b21

Granted, I haven't followed it since that article, so I don't know if it turned out to not be her, although the stupidity of this case would suggest it was indeed Vogel.

At this point, I would expect Dems to hold the open VA-LG even if they lose VA-GOV.  That could be quite significant as a tied State Senate during the 2021 redistricting is a distinct possibility.

[The Other Castro]

My gut still says Northam will win the primary, but it's feeling very close. I'm confident that either would pretty easily win the general though.

[heatcharger]

WaPo did a series of video interviews with the five candidates:

Ralph Northam

Tom Perriello

Frank Wagner

Ed Gillespie

Crazy Corey Stewart

It's also in transcript form.

[KingSweden]

Perriello endorsed by Jon Grisham, so I may have to go with him now (only half serious)

[Gass3268]

New Perriello ad heavily featuring Elizabeth Warren with appearances by Sanders and Obama

One thing I've really like about this campaign, outside of a few shots in the debates (which is expected), is just how positive and clean it has been. Baring anything changing here in the last 8 days I don't think either candidate will come out of the primary damaged.

[Gass3268]

Virginia's early vote turnout a week out is at 78.6% of what was cast for the Democratic Presidential Primary last year.

For the Republicans it is only at 43.3% of the total from the Republican Presidential Primary.

Hampton Road's (Northam's base area) early vote turnout a week out is already at 103% of what was cast for the Democratic Presidential Primary last year.

Piedmont's (Perriello's base area) early vote turnout a week out is already at 104% of what was cast for the Democratic Presidential Primary last year.

[SoLongAtlas]

Virginia's early vote turnout a week out is at 78.6% of what was cast for the Democratic Presidential Primary last year.

For the Republicans it is only at 43.3% of the total from the Republican Presidential Primary.

Hampton Road's (Northam's base area) early vote turnout a week out is already at 103% of what was cast for the Democratic Presidential Primary last year.

Piedmont's (Perriello's base area) early vote turnout a week out is already at 104% of what was cast for the Democratic Presidential Primary last year.

Most of the Piedmont numbers are small for absentee and unless a surge of people come out of nowhere to vote in the primary, Piedmont (mostly rural), won't provide enough votes to make up t he difference with the shore and NoVA. Key here is C'ville, Perriello's base. He might, emphasis might, eek out a win with maxed out C'ville but that is a real stretch.

[Gass3268]

Virginia's early vote turnout a week out is at 78.6% of what was cast for the Democratic Presidential Primary last year.

For the Republicans it is only at 43.3% of the total from the Republican Presidential Primary.

Hampton Road's (Northam's base area) early vote turnout a week out is already at 103% of what was cast for the Democratic Presidential Primary last year.

Piedmont's (Perriello's base area) early vote turnout a week out is already at 104% of what was cast for the Democratic Presidential Primary last year.

Most of the Piedmont numbers are small for absentee and unless a surge of people come out of nowhere to vote in the primary, Piedmont (mostly rural), won't provide enough votes to make up t he difference with the shore and NoVA. Key here is C'ville, Perriello's base. He might, emphasis might, eek out a win with maxed out C'ville but that is a real stretch.

What I wanted to show by highlighting those two regions was that there seems to be good enthusiasm in both candidates home regions.

[RogueBeaver]

NYT on Dems. Reading between the lines, sounds like a single-digit Northam lead.

[Gass3268]

NYT on Dems. Reading between the lines, sounds like a single-digit Northam lead.

Also in this article:

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[RogueBeaver]

My hunch was correct: Kraushaar reports that Northam's internals have him up 9 & Perriello's outta gas.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

My hunch was correct: Kraushaar reports that Northam's internals have him up 9 & Perriello's outta gas.

Sad. Perriello is an amazing candidate. But he should've run in '13.

[Gass3268]

My hunch was correct: Kraushaar reports that Northam's internals have him up 9 & Perriello's outta gas.

Sad. Perriello is an amazing candidate. But he should've run in '13.

There is always 2021.

[Virginiá]

There is always 2021.

I wouldn't be surprised if Herring runs then. Virginia gubernatorial candidates seem to run on a "my turn"-type basis. I actually would have really liked it if Perriello had just run for Lt. Gov this cycle and moved up the ladder from there. Not to say I particularly like the way things operate in VA, but I do like Tom and I'd like to see him in office.

[heatcharger]

There is always 2021.

I wouldn't be surprised if Herring runs then. Virginia gubernatorial candidates seem to run on a "my turn"-type basis. I actually would have really liked it if Perriello had just run for Lt. Gov this cycle and moved up the ladder from there. Not to say I particularly like the way things operate in VA, but I do like Tom and I'd like to see him in office.

I like the system we have because it produced Warner and Kaine when it otherwise would not have.

As for Perriello, he belongs in Congress much more. He should run for whatever district contains Charlottesville after 2021 (which may be more winnable after redistricting), and then he can move up the Virginia totem pole if he so chooses.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Perriello should run for Warner's seat if he retires (hopefully) in 2020.