VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)

[Gass3268]

There is always 2021.

I wouldn't be surprised if Herring runs then. Virginia gubernatorial candidates seem to run on a "my turn"-type basis. I actually would have really liked it if Perriello had just run for Lt. Gov this cycle and moved up the ladder from there. Not to say I particularly like the way things operate in VA, but I do like Tom and I'd like to see him in office.

I like the system we have because it produced Warner and Kaine when it otherwise would not have.

As for Perriello, he belongs in Congress much more. He should run for whatever district contains Charlottesville after 2021 (which may be more winnable after redistricting), and then he can move up the Virginia totem pole if he so chooses.

Unlikely dream scenario, Democrats have total control after 2021 and are able to redraw the 7th into a district that incorporates Charlottesville, the surrounding area that normally leans Democratic (Buckingham, Nelson, Prince Edward), removes as much of the hardcore Republican Richmond exurbs, but keeps the Richmond areas that swung hard to Clinton.

[BuckeyeNut]

Perriello should run for Warner's seat if he retires (hopefully) in 2020.

Warner'll only be 65 in 2020. He's not going anywhere unless he gives up the seat to run for POTUS.

[KingSweden]

Perriello should run for Warner's seat if he retires (hopefully) in 2020.

Doubt Warner leaves, but yes. Perriello has a bright future in the Commonwealth

[heatcharger]

Lol, Warner isn't retiring. Nobody wants that either.

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

Lol, Warner isn't retiring. Nobody wants that either.

Trust me. A LOT of people want that.

(Maybe not Virginians, but you know.)

[The Other Castro]

I'm doing results volunteering for DDHQ from Alexandria.

[Miles]

^ Thanks!!

[heatcharger]

Lol, Warner isn't retiring. Nobody wants that either.

Trust me. A LOT of people want that.

(Maybe not Virginians, but you know.)

You're right, we're good actually:

[Skill and Chance]

Perriello should run for Warner's seat if he retires (hopefully) in 2020.

Warner'll only be 65 in 2020. He's not going anywhere unless he gives up the seat to run for POTUS.

Assuming he loses the in primary (or in the general), his best bet might be to carpetbag into one of the NOVA districts.  VA-05 isn't happening again for Democrats unless they control redistricting outright, and the state would have to do a full Arkansas 2012 for that to happen by 2021.  Connolly and Beyer in VA-11 and VA-08 are both older than Warner and if Comstock holds on next year (unlikely but far from impossible), he could run for VA-10 in 2020.  Any of those CDs would be safe for him for a long time and he is young enough to eventually be Speaker of the House if he wants to.

Similarly, if Northam loses the primary, he is the best possible candidate for VA-02 in 2018.  VA Dems should draft him into it right away.

[publicunofficial]

Perriello should run for Warner's seat if he retires (hopefully) in 2020.

Warner'll only be 65 in 2020. He's not going anywhere unless he gives up the seat to run for POTUS.

Assuming he loses the in primary (or in the general), his best bet might be to carpetbag into one of the NOVA districts.  VA-05 isn't happening again for Democrats unless they control redistricting outright, and the state would have to do a full Arkansas 2012 for that to happen by 2021.  Connolly and Beyer in VA-11 and VA-08 are both older than Warner and if Comstock holds on next year (unlikely but far from impossible), he could run for VA-10 in 2020.  Any of those CDs would be safe for him for a long time and he is young enough to eventually be Speaker of the House if he wants to.

Similarly, if Northam loses the primary, he is the best possible candidate for VA-02 in 2018.  VA Dems should draft him into it right away.

Fingers crossed for "Virginia gets a 12th district in 2022 and the seat that comes out of it is a NOVA to Charlottesville gerrymander"

[Skill and Chance]

Perriello should run for Warner's seat if he retires (hopefully) in 2020.

Warner'll only be 65 in 2020. He's not going anywhere unless he gives up the seat to run for POTUS.

Assuming he loses the in primary (or in the general), his best bet might be to carpetbag into one of the NOVA districts.  VA-05 isn't happening again for Democrats unless they control redistricting outright, and the state would have to do a full Arkansas 2012 for that to happen by 2021.  Connolly and Beyer in VA-11 and VA-08 are both older than Warner and if Comstock holds on next year (unlikely but far from impossible), he could run for VA-10 in 2020.  Any of those CDs would be safe for him for a long time and he is young enough to eventually be Speaker of the House if he wants to.

Similarly, if Northam loses the primary, he is the best possible candidate for VA-02 in 2018.  VA Dems should draft him into it right away.

Fingers crossed for "Virginia gets a 12th district in 2022 and the seat that comes out of it is a NOVA to Charlottesville gerrymander"

I think the Republican-controlled federal government and its budget cuts basically assures that VA won't get a 12th district.  If it's a court map, which is by far the most likely outcome given how many State Senate districts Clinton won, then it's Republicans who should be rooting for a 12th district.  A court would almost surely compress VA-10 into a compact Reston-Leesburg district on a 12 district map, which would be roughly 2:1 Dem voting by then.  Whereas an 11 district map with this decade's population growth would mean 2 of VA-01, VA-05 and VA-07 inevitably run out of rural central VA and get sucked further into NOVA and Richmond, probably enough to be tossup seats by 2022.  A 12 district court map probably ends up an ironclad 7R/5D, while an 11 district court map could be 4R/4D/3Swing.  In the event of a Republican map, it's still possible to draw a fairly safe 8R/4D, but between Henrico and Loudoun, it's no longer possible to do better than 7R/4D on an 11 district map if Clinton numbers hold.  In the unlikely event of a Democratic map, they would connect Charlottesville to the Dem parts of Richmond outside of VA-04, not to NOVA.  VA-07 would collapse into an I-64 district that voted for Clinton by 10-15 and VA-05 would pull east into the 2:1 Republican Richmond exurbs.  From there, VA-01 becomes as rural/exurban as possible to allow VA-02 to collapse further into Hampton roads until it is at least a Clinton +5-10 district.  Then reliably Dem areas get redistributed between the 3 NOVA seats until they are all about 60% Clinton for a safe 6D/5R map that means Comstock would be toast in 2022 (although it is unlikely she holds VA-10 that long as it is). 

[PragmaticPopulist]

32% approval from Republicans seems pretty high for such a partisan era. 55% approval from Non-college white voters is also surprisingly good for a Democrat right now.

[heatcharger]

32% approval from Republicans seems pretty high for such a partisan era. 55% approval from Non-college white voters is also surprisingly good for a Democrat right now.

There are still a fair amount of people in Southwest VA who still think he's 'one of the good ones', and that's because he campaigned there a lot in his '96 Senate campaign and then his following gubernatorial run. It's why he won in 2001 and in 2008 by such a landslide. Unfortunately, in the 2014 political environment, the hatred of Obama combined with Warner's sleepy campaign, they weren't about to vote for him again.

[PragmaticPopulist]

32% approval from Republicans seems pretty high for such a partisan era. 55% approval from Non-college white voters is also surprisingly good for a Democrat right now.

There are still a fair amount of people in Southwest VA who still think he's 'one of the good ones', and that's because he campaigned there a lot in his '96 Senate campaign and then his following gubernatorial run. It's why he won in 2001 and in 2008 by such a landslide. Unfortunately, in the 2014 political environment, the hatred of Obama combined with Warner's sleepy campaign, they weren't about to vote for him again.

Always wondered why Warner won in such a landslide in 2008, even though McCain won the 9th district with 59% of the vote, and McCain was also the first Republican since 1972 to win Buchanan and Dickenson counties. If Periello's the nominee, do you think he would at least slightly over-perform a typical Democrat in VA-09 (SW VA) or even VA-06 (Shenandoah Valley/Piedmont)?

[Kevin]

Anyone know where I can see VA absentee vote numbers if possible?

[Miles]

^ Absentee voting isn't a big thing in VA, but here's what the state has:

- Democratic Primary

- Republican Primary

[Miles]

Perriello should run for Warner's seat if he retires (hopefully) in 2020.

Warner'll only be 65 in 2020. He's not going anywhere unless he gives up the seat to run for POTUS.

Assuming he loses the in primary (or in the general), his best bet might be to carpetbag into one of the NOVA districts.  VA-05 isn't happening again for Democrats unless they control redistricting outright, and the state would have to do a full Arkansas 2012 for that to happen by 2021.  Connolly and Beyer in VA-11 and VA-08 are both older than Warner and if Comstock holds on next year (unlikely but far from impossible), he could run for VA-10 in 2020.  Any of those CDs would be safe for him for a long time and he is young enough to eventually be Speaker of the House if he wants to.

Similarly, if Northam loses the primary, he is the best possible candidate for VA-02 in 2018.  VA Dems should draft him into it right away.

Perriello already lives in NOVA now, FWIW. It's transient enough that he could easily overcome carpetbagging.

[RogueBeaver]

Pollster that nailed Mt finds perriello up 54/46 & Gillespie Stewart tied 42/41.

[heatcharger]

Always wondered why Warner won in such a landslide in 2008, even though McCain won the 9th district with 59% of the vote, and McCain was also the first Republican since 1972 to win Buchanan and Dickenson counties. If Periello's the nominee, do you think he would at least slightly over-perform a typical Democrat in VA-09 (SW VA) or even VA-06 (Shenandoah Valley/Piedmont)?

I think Perriello could overperform the 'typical Democrat' in Appalachia, for sure.

How much better though? In my estimation, not all that much. He's not running on the platform and persona he had in 2008-2010, since he's spent most of his political capital consolidating the Sanders base and showing off his relationship with Obama, a figure still deeply hated in that entire region of the country.

And in relation to Northam, I think he'd be trading a slight overperformance in the Western part of the state for potentially underperforming in NoVA and in the Tidewater, which is a net negative for a Democrat.

Pollster that nailed Mt finds perriello up 54/46 & Gillespie Stewart tied 42/41.

Dang.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Pollster that nailed Mt finds perriello up 54/46 & Gillespie Stewart tied 42/41.

0% undecided, though?  That doesn't sound realistic.

[The Other Castro]

Pollster that nailed Mt finds perriello up 54/46 & Gillespie Stewart tied 42/41.

I am highly skeptical of this pollster.

[Skill and Chance]

Pollster that nailed Mt finds perriello up 54/46 & Gillespie Stewart tied 42/41.

I am highly skeptical of this pollster.

I am as well.  Nominating Stewart for Governor with Trump as President would probably destroy the VA GOP for a generation.  I have to think they won't jump that shark.  Also, I do think Perriello will win, but barely, not by 8.

[Holmes]

It's an open primary, so more non-partisans are voting in the competitive Democratic primary, leaving the Republican electorate to have more true believers in it. I don't see it happening though.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

If Stewart is the nominee, the Dem nominee really doesn't even need to campaign, but I highly doubt he actually gets nominated.

[Gass3268]

If Stewart is the nominee, the Dem nominee really doesn't even need to campaign, but I highly doubt he actually gets nominated.

I mean, VA Dems could even flip the lower house of the legislature with Stewart at the top of the GOP ticket.

Yeah, if Stewart is the nominee I would expect Republicans to lose every seat in Fairfax.