VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)

[Holmes]

If Stewart is the nominee, the Dem nominee really doesn't even need to campaign, but I highly doubt he actually gets nominated.

I mean, VA Dems could even flip the lower house of the legislature with Stewart at the top of the GOP ticket.

Yeah, if Stewart is the nominee I would expect Republicans to lose every seat in Fairfax.

That won't take much. Nominating Stewart shouldn't even be necessary.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

If Stewart is the nominee, the Dem nominee really doesn't even need to campaign, but I highly doubt he actually gets nominated.

I mean, VA Dems could even flip the lower house of the legislature with Stewart at the top of the GOP ticket.

Yeah, if Stewart is the nominee I would expect Republicans to lose every seat in Fairfax.

How many seats do they even have there these days?

[Gass3268]

If Stewart is the nominee, the Dem nominee really doesn't even need to campaign, but I highly doubt he actually gets nominated.

I mean, VA Dems could even flip the lower house of the legislature with Stewart at the top of the GOP ticket.

Yeah, if Stewart is the nominee I would expect Republicans to lose every seat in Fairfax.

How many seats do they even have there these days?

About 2.5

[Gass3268]

If Stewart is the nominee, the Dem nominee really doesn't even need to campaign, but I highly doubt he actually gets nominated.

I mean, VA Dems could even flip the lower house of the legislature with Stewart at the top of the GOP ticket.

Yeah, if Stewart is the nominee I would expect Republicans to lose every seat in Fairfax.

How many seats do they even have there these days?

About 2.5

The Stewart apocalypse would be further out in NOVA and it the Richmond area.  Between Henrico, Loudoun and Prince William, there are 10+ Clinton Republican seats.

Yup, plus the VaTech seat in the SW.

[heatcharger]

Hampton University did a poll, but it was poorly conducted, in my opinion. McAullife's approval at 60% is awesome though.

I'd honestly rather have Gillespie win the primary, even if Stewart is a slightly easier opponent to defeat. The campaign would devolve into such Trumpian nonsense, and I'd prefer not hear any more about Confederate statues ever again.

[Beet]

Lol, Perriello wins over Trump voter with $15 minimum wage:

"Twelve hours later, Perriello entered a rest stop in rural Ashland with his hair disheveled, tie removed, and voice groggy and bordering on slurring. No customers to be found at 2:15 a.m., he introduced himself to the clerk staffing the convenience store.

“How’s your job?” he asked.

“I make $9.66 an hour after working for years,” Candace Niles, 27, said with a sigh. “I’m a single mom with three kids.”

“Would it change your life much if minimum wage was $15 an hour?” Perriello asked, referencing a policy he and Northam support but Republicans in the legislature oppose.

“Fifteen dollars, that would be amazing,” Niles said. “This job sucks.”

Niles said she doesn’t pay much attention to politics and probably hasn’t voted in state races, but she backed Trump in November because he seemed to have her interests at heart. Even though Perriello is an outspoken Trump critic (and he didn’t mention the president or his Democratic affiliation), Niles said he won her vote just by suggesting policies that could help."

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/virginia-gubernatorial-candidates-make-final-pitches-before-tuesdays-primary/2017/06/11/be207142-4c56-11e7-a186-60c031eab644_story.html?hpid=hp_local-news_vagovpush640pm%3Ahomepage%2Fstory&utm_term=.65474a9d7192

I think I'll be really sad when this guy loses due to be outspent by Northam. If you're in Virginia guys vote Perriello. Please!

[SoLongAtlas]

@Beet great dedication by Perriello but I still think he will lose the primary.

As far as Stewart goes, he will lose in a landslide if he gets the GOP nod. In VA they call him the Southern Avenger lol

[retromike22]

We talk a little about the primary in the last third of our podcast:

Ep. 5.0(b): NeverAgain on Taxes, Tax Reform, and Virginia 2017

Knight of Vice Czars Retromike interviews AFR's newly annointed Vice Czar for U.S. Revenue & Taxation, NeverAgain. The pair discuss Greg Gianforte's win in Montana, the general structure of federal taxation, proposals for tax reform, and the 2017 Virginia Gubernatorial Election.

Listen here!

[Suburbia]

I can see this Democratic gubernatorial primary heading towards a recount. That would be Ed Gillespie's dream, as whoever wins the Democratic nod could be damaged in the general election, but in 2008, people said that about Obama vs. Clinton in the Democratic primary, and McCain lost to Obama in a landslide.

[RogueBeaver]

Politico says Dem race is a tossup.

[Holmes]

Politico says Dem race is a tossup.

Insightful.

[RogueBeaver]

CNN: Magic Dem number is 375k. Lower good for Northam, higher good for Perriello.

[Shadows]

Perriello is going to be the strong candidate if he can get such a good turnout among young people & disillusioned people who are likely to stay at home. He's expanding the party beyond the core Dem base.

Anyways, both candidates look solid vs the GOP one !

[Suburbia]

I see Northam winning by 6 points tonight. Perriello should have ran for Lt. Governor, or ran for his old congressional seat that he lost in 2010.

I don't see him challenging Sen. Tim Kaine as a progressive vs. centrist battle like this year's contest.

[Jeppe]

Really hoping Platt wins the Lt. Governor race, but it's probably gonna be Fairfax.

[heatcharger]

Just voted Northam/Fairfax/Delaney (67th district). Turnout seemed pretty low.

[Alabama_Indy10]

Is there any chance at all of a Stewart or Wagner upset?

[Progressive]

Is there any chance at all of a Stewart or Wagner upset?

My GOP/political friends in VA (or DC) have been telling me for days that they think it's not impossible for Stewart to pull an upset or come very close to Gillespie. They posit that GOP turnout might be depressed in NoVa due to dissatisfaction with Trump but Trump supporters will come out strong for Stewart.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

How is it possible that someone who literally described themselves as a "fiscal conservative" is in position to win a Democratic primary?

[Gass3268]

How is it possible that someone who literally described themselves as a "fiscal conservative" is in position to win a Democratic primary?

It's Virginia.

[Gass3268]

Is there any chance at all of a Stewart or Wagner upset?

My GOP/political friends in VA (or DC) have been telling me for days that they think it's not impossible for Stewart to pull an upset or come very close to Gillespie. They posit that GOP turnout might be depressed in NoVa due to dissatisfaction with Trump but Trump supporters will come out strong for Stewart.

Also if you remember from the polls there was still a lot of undecided voters on the GOP side. Past polling shows that those folks usually come for the Western part of the state, which I imagine should help Stewart.

[Deblano]

Just got back from voting.

[MT Treasurer]

How is it possible that someone who literally described themselves as a "fiscal conservative" is in position to win a Democratic primary?

Most people not named RINO Tom realize that a "fiscal conservative" can indeed win a Democratic primary. That being said, I doubt Northam is much to the right of Perriello on any issue.

[SoLongAtlas]

Voting Northam after work. First time voting in a Dem primary but have voted Dem in a presidential before.

Great results tracker on the NYT site https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/virginia-primary-elections

[Progressive]

So, anecdotally I'm hearing very low turnout. But also anecdotally, I'm seeing on Twitter comparisons to 2009 and it seems that every precinct posted on Twitter is approaching 2009 turnout before the PM rush has started.