VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
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  VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
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Author Topic: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)  (Read 159861 times)
SoLongAtlas
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« Reply #625 on: June 13, 2017, 08:57:02 PM »

Stewart did much better in Fairfax than he should have. I don't see how Gillespie wins in November.

He probably won't. Virginia is not purple like the GOP would have you believe. It is a purplish blue/indigo.
MA is deep blue and they have a GOP governor.  Not saying Ed will win, but it's not impossible.

Mass has a liberal Republican. The Va GOP refuses to moderate.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #626 on: June 13, 2017, 08:57:38 PM »

Stewart did much better in Fairfax than he should have. I don't see how Gillespie wins in November.

He probably won't. Virginia is not purple like the GOP would have you believe. It is a purplish blue/indigo.
MA is deep blue and they have a GOP governor.  Not saying Ed will win, but it's not impossible.

It is definitely not impossible, but for sure unlikely. Governor's race are less partisan, true, but if Gillespie could not win in a less diverse VA 4 years ago, and also in a national Red wave, his chances are slim now, especially with his reputation of being a loser, this pathetic primary showing, and lack of enthusiasm.

Edit 1: sorry meant 3 years ago.
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heatcharger
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« Reply #627 on: June 13, 2017, 08:58:11 PM »

Stewart did much better in Fairfax than he should have. I don't see how Gillespie wins in November.

Like I saw some people on Twitter saying, the old moderate Republicans who used to vote in R primaries are now Democrats. This also has the consequence of Trumpists having more power in the nominating process than before.

This result also makes me wonder whether Comstock would even win a Republican Senate primary next year. Good stuff.
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Yank2133
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« Reply #628 on: June 13, 2017, 09:02:30 PM »

Stewart did much better in Fairfax than he should have. I don't see how Gillespie wins in November.

He probably won't. Virginia is not purple like the GOP would have you believe. It is a purplish blue/indigo.
MA is deep blue and they have a GOP governor.  Not saying Ed will win, but it's not impossible.

You don't understand how hated Trump is here and unfortunately for Ed, he is tied to him.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #629 on: June 13, 2017, 09:04:53 PM »

Stewart did much better in Fairfax than he should have. I don't see how Gillespie wins in November.

He probably won't. Virginia is not purple like the GOP would have you believe. It is a purplish blue/indigo.
MA is deep blue and they have a GOP governor.  Not saying Ed will win, but it's not impossible.

You don't understand how hated Trump is here and unfortunately for Ed, he is tied to him.

Ed also had to release this statement recently: https://edforvirginia.com/2017/06/12/no-ed-gillespie-doesnt-support-removing-confederate-monuments/
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Matty
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« Reply #630 on: June 13, 2017, 09:05:44 PM »

Who did blacks support in the dem primary?
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OneJ
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« Reply #631 on: June 13, 2017, 09:07:13 PM »

Who did blacks support in the dem primary?

Likely Northam. He was shown to have an edge with them among the polls.
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Hydera
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« Reply #632 on: June 13, 2017, 09:08:26 PM »

Who did blacks support in the dem primary?

Black precints and the one majority black city has Northam 60-70% over Perriello.
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MAINEiac4434
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« Reply #633 on: June 13, 2017, 09:09:10 PM »

Who did blacks support in the dem primary?
According to reports, Northam overwhelmingly.
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #634 on: June 13, 2017, 09:12:53 PM »

Definitely a disappointing showing for Perriello, but Stewart came out of nowhere tonight.  Seeing how close this was, I'm thinking Northam will have more of an Obama 2008 style 6-9% win than the standard VA Dem 1-3% win.  LG could be interesting.  Republicans got their best candidate there and VA has been known to split tickets for Governor and LG in the past.  Either way, Northam has to be smiling and the primary turnout numbers should make all of the statewide Dems initial favorites.
Indeed.  Northam alone has over 300,000 votes.  Gillespie has a mere 160,000 or so.
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Matty
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« Reply #635 on: June 13, 2017, 09:17:59 PM »

I'm not trying to flame, but this is yet another election where black voters are a thorn in the side of the bernie/warren wing of the party.

This is going to be an interesting development to follow in the next few cycles.
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« Reply #636 on: June 13, 2017, 09:18:55 PM »

Who did blacks support in the dem primary?

The vote was correlated much more with regional geography than with race, but the clear majority of blacks are in areas that went for Northam.
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heatcharger
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« Reply #637 on: June 13, 2017, 09:21:30 PM »

Well, this result surprised me, to say the least. I don't usually Chicken Little about my supported candidates, but I was getting the feeling Perriello's campaign was firing the base up in Fairfax, while Northam's milquetoast nature didn't allow for such a thing. Luckily, my fellow neoliberal establishment moderate centrists showed up big league anyway.

As for Perriello, fair play to him. He ran a clean and constructive campaign and showed how a good Democratic primary should go, by challenging the opponent to be better without tearing them down. It's refreshing to know there are progressives who have long-term visions like him, and I think he'll get another chance at this eventually. Hopefully his supporters follow his lead and show up to throw out HoD Republicans as well this November.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #638 on: June 13, 2017, 09:31:10 PM »

I find it hilarious that Gillespie got Gillespie'd!

Not to mention that Democratic Primary turnout was substantially higher than Republican primary turnout - which I'm not sure if that's a normal thing or not.
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Roronoa D. Law
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« Reply #639 on: June 13, 2017, 09:39:00 PM »

The race is lean D at least Gillespie has a tough path not as bad a Guadagno. Loudoun and Virginia Beach are counties to watch especially for Comstock and Taylor reelection bid.  
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Virginiá
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« Reply #640 on: June 13, 2017, 09:43:12 PM »

I find it hilarious that Gillespie got Gillespie'd!

Not to mention that Democratic Primary turnout was substantially higher than Republican primary turnout - which I'm not sure if that's a normal thing or not.

I tried looking that up too, but evidently in 2013 it was a convention for the GOP. Still, that kind of lopsidedness isn't good, especially since we already know a decent-sized enthusiasm gap has emerged between the two parties nationally, and that Trump is deeply unpopular in Virginia.

I'll wait until this fall to make a prediction but I think this race is very much Northam's to lose. The political environment is simply too ugly for Republicans both nationally and in Virginia, and it only seems to be getting worse.
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BuckeyeNut
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« Reply #641 on: June 13, 2017, 09:50:47 PM »

Really disappointed in but thoroughly unsurprised by Virginia tonight.
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #642 on: June 13, 2017, 09:52:35 PM »

I find it hilarious that Gillespie got Gillespie'd!

Not to mention that Democratic Primary turnout was substantially higher than Republican primary turnout - which I'm not sure if that's a normal thing or not.

I tried looking that up too, but evidently in 2013 it was a convention for the GOP. Still, that kind of lopsidedness isn't good, especially since we already know a decent-sized enthusiasm gap has emerged between the two parties nationally, and that Trump is deeply unpopular in Virginia.

I'll wait until this fall to make a prediction but I think this race is very much Northam's to lose. The political environment is simply too ugly for Republicans both nationally and in Virginia, and it only seems to be getting worse.
For sure.  If Northam is smart, he'll do a one-two punch by nationalizing this race and spreading his economic message.
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MasterJedi
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« Reply #643 on: June 13, 2017, 09:57:31 PM »

I'm not trying to flame, but this is yet another election where black voters are a thorn in the side of the bernie/warren wing of the party.

This is going to be an interesting development to follow in the next few cycles.

They've been down the road of being promised miracles before and realize it doesn't happen. They'll vote for the liberal who has a realistic policy.
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Xing
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« Reply #644 on: June 13, 2017, 10:18:17 PM »

Well, it's certainly interesting that while Northam/Gillespie was the expected outcome, the expectation of the Democratic side being close while the Republican primary would be a blowout was definitely turned on its head. Gillespie definitely has his work cut out for him.
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Suburbia
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« Reply #645 on: June 13, 2017, 10:18:56 PM »

Gillespie wins, not surprising, but a close primary race for Gillespie.

I wonder if the Virginia Republican Party will unite, or will it be another post-Cuccinelli divide.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #646 on: June 13, 2017, 10:20:51 PM »

GOP race ends just outside the margin needed to avoid a recount challenge from Stewart.
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Rookie Yinzer
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« Reply #647 on: June 13, 2017, 10:26:25 PM »

Wow Stewart, the unabashed defender of the Confederacy almost got the nomination. Interesting.
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heatcharger
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« Reply #648 on: June 13, 2017, 10:36:42 PM »

Stewart's refusing to concede.
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Chief Justice Keef
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« Reply #649 on: June 13, 2017, 10:36:46 PM »

Shame about Perriello, but Virginia Democrats are gonna do what they're gonna do.

Corey Stewart coming that close to winning the primary says a lot about the current state of the GOP.
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