VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)

[Alabama_Indy10]

Stewart's refusing to concede.

That's a shocker smh

[Kevin]

It was low turnout that appeared to hurt EG.

I wonder what things would have looked like with higher GOP turnout and with Wagner off the ballot?

[PragmaticPopulist]

It was heart-wrenching to watch this. The D side wasn't all that surprising; polls had anything from Northam having a wide lead to Periello having a narrow lead. It was the R side that really got me hyperventilating. I wonder if most of the undecideds went to Stewart.

Due to a seemingly divided GOP and the national environment, I'm gonna have to rate it leans D.

What I'm gonna be watching closely is how well Northam does in the tidewater region in November. He did do notably well here for a Democrat in the 2013 LG general. I can see him winning VA-02, as well as at least keeping the margin in VA-01 in mid single-digits.

I'm also keeping an eye on southside and parts of the Shenandoah Valley, namely Alleghany County, which regularly give GOP presidential candidates solid wins, but seems to be competitive in statewide elections.

As for Gillespie, I think this is a chance for Rs to possibly make up lost ground with more moderate suburban voters, but it could also be an opportunity for Democrats to make up lost ground with rural voters.

[Adam Griffin]

60% of voters tonight pulled a Democratic ballot: interesting. What did it look like four years ago?

[heatcharger]

60% of voters tonight pulled a Democratic ballot: interesting. What did it look like four years ago?

No real comparison to be had since the GOP had a convention in 2013 while McAullife was the only Dem running.

Also, could someone (maybe Adam) make a Sanders-Perriello swing map?

[Alabama_Indy10]

VA GOP is trash

[Spark]

This one should be close.

[Yank2133]

This one should be close.

No, it won't be close.

[Rookie Yinzer]

VA GOP is trash

[krazen1211]

60% of voters tonight pulled a Democratic ballot: interesting. What did it look like four years ago?

Pro tip:

57% of the voters in the 2016 Presidential primary in Virginia pulled the GOP ballot! Clearly that led to a landslide victory in Virginia.

[Holmes]

60% of voters tonight pulled a Democratic ballot: interesting. What did it look like four years ago?

Pro tip:

57% of the voters in the 2016 Presidential primary in Virginia pulled the GOP ballot! Clearly that led to a landslide victory in Virginia.

Enough excuses, own this L.

[Mr. Smith]

Buena Vista went for Northam just as I thought.

Unlikely, but it'd be hilarious if Lynchburg voted for Perriello right after this. No idea when that will dump.

Methinks for that city:

Dems: Northam, Fairfax
GOP: Gillespie, Vogel

Holy s&^!

Wow, Lynchburg was less establishment than usual and to the left of Buena Vista at that. I know the city went significantly leftwards towards Hillary this time around, but this is crazy.

The land of Jerry Falwell's institution, one of the last holdouts for the state during The Civil War....and it votes decidedly to the left of Buena Vista AND in the case of the Governor, the college town of Lexington....this, this is telling.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Buena Vista went for Northam just as I thought.

Unlikely, but it'd be hilarious if Lynchburg voted for Perriello right after this. No idea when that will dump.

Methinks for that city:

Dems: Northam, Fairfax
GOP: Gillespie, Vogel

Holy s&^!

Wow, Lynchburg was less establishment than usual and to the left of Buena Vista at that. I know the city went significantly leftwards towards Hillary this time around, but this is crazy.

The land of Jerry Falwell's institution, one of the last holdouts for the state during The Civil War....and it votes decidedly to the left of Buena Vista AND in the case of the Governor, the college town of Lexington....this, this is telling.

and nearly 2/3 of Lynchburg voters today voted in the GOP primary.

perhaps more to the point, this is right outside the boundaries of his former district.  People know about him there and they believed he would represent their interests.  Not everything is about left vs right.

[Mr. Smith]

Buena Vista went for Northam just as I thought.

Unlikely, but it'd be hilarious if Lynchburg voted for Perriello right after this. No idea when that will dump.

Methinks for that city:

Dems: Northam, Fairfax
GOP: Gillespie, Vogel

Holy s&^!

Wow, Lynchburg was less establishment than usual and to the left of Buena Vista at that. I know the city went significantly leftwards towards Hillary this time around, but this is crazy.

The land of Jerry Falwell's institution, one of the last holdouts for the state during The Civil War....and it votes decidedly to the left of Buena Vista AND in the case of the Governor, the college town of Lexington....this, this is telling.

and nearly 2/3 of Lynchburg voters today voted in the GOP primary.

perhaps more to the point, this is right outside the boundaries of his former district.  People know about him there and they believed he would represent their interests.  Not everything is about left vs right.

Ah, that explains it.

[Adam Griffin]

60% of voters tonight pulled a Democratic ballot: interesting. What did it look like four years ago?

Pro tip:

57% of the voters in the 2016 Presidential primary in Virginia pulled the GOP ballot! Clearly that led to a landslide victory in Virginia.

Yes, the Republicans were MISERABLE FAILURES in Virginia in that election as well - thanks for reminding me of the correlation and causation!

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

This one should be close.

It could, but should not be. But seriously, I know the VA GOP is getting weaker and weaker, especially statewide, but seriously, Gillespie? Is that sad loser really the best yall could do?

[Miles]

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Spectacular work as always, Miles!

So the word on Dark Atlas is that Wagner basically ran as a moderate on economic issues.  I wonder how much support that bled from Gillespie.  I didn't follow his campaign at all but I didn't see any signs of his and I don't think he ran a single ad - and this is his home city.

Eyeballing that map, it appears Stewart won my precinct.

[TheSaint250]

60% of voters tonight pulled a Democratic ballot: interesting. What did it look like four years ago?

Pro tip:

57% of the voters in the 2016 Presidential primary in Virginia pulled the GOP ballot! Clearly that led to a landslide victory in Virginia.

Enough excuses, own this L.

*presents numbers that are supposed to be favorable to Democrats*
*presents counter argument disproving significance of first bit of evidence*
"Ignore the past and accept Gillespie lost the race before it really began

[SoLongAtlas]

Well in other news the Foy King primary in PW is down to a ten vote separation and probably will be a recount. http://www.fauquier.com/prince_william_times/just-votes-separate-foy-king-in-nd-district/article_5793b914-50b8-11e7-b8d4-9f1e9c2599a9.html

[MasterJedi]

The interwebs Bernie Bros (I bet almost none are in Virginia) are already railing against the Northam win and how they won't support a centrist. Gillespie has to love their support!

[Mr. Reactionary]

Buena Vista went for Northam just as I thought.

Unlikely, but it'd be hilarious if Lynchburg voted for Perriello right after this. No idea when that will dump.

Methinks for that city:

Dems: Northam, Fairfax
GOP: Gillespie, Vogel

Holy s&^!

Wow, Lynchburg was less establishment than usual and to the left of Buena Vista at that. I know the city went significantly leftwards towards Hillary this time around, but this is crazy.

The land of Jerry Falwell's institution, one of the last holdouts for the state during The Civil War....and it votes decidedly to the left of Buena Vista AND in the case of the Governor, the college town of Lexington....this, this is telling.

and nearly 2/3 of Lynchburg voters today voted in the GOP primary.

perhaps more to the point, this is right outside the boundaries of his former district.  People know about him there and they believed he would represent their interests.  Not everything is about left vs right.

Yeah, name recognition had to be a factor. Majority white pittsylvania county and plurality black danville both went for periello above 70% with the common link being he was our old congressman.

[PragmaticPopulist]

The interwebs Bernie Bros (I bet almost none are in Virginia) are already railing against the Northam win and how they won't support a centrist. Gillespie has to love their support!

Northam is a much better candidate then Clinton was. No baggage, and actually has a clear message.

[MasterJedi]

The interwebs Bernie Bros (I bet almost none are in Virginia) are already railing against the Northam win and how they won't support a centrist. Gillespie has to love their support!

Northam is a much better candidate then Clinton was. No baggage, and actually has a clear message.

You know that, I know that but he wasn't endorsed by Bernie and not labeled as a Progressive so many won't support him. Boggles my mind that people won't vote for someone who won a fair primary who supports most of what they want but isn't as far left and instead won't vote which could make a Republican win so they get nothing.

[Nyvin]

It's crazy how VA-5 is still Perriello's best area by far after all these years.   I didn't think it'd be that prominent especially since he didn't serve very long.