VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Final Results:

Governor
Democratic Primary

CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.
Ralph Northam
303,537   55.9%
Tom Perriello
239,505   44.1
100% reporting (2,561 of 2,561 precincts)

Republican Primary

CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.
Edward Gillespie
160,099   43.7%
Corey Stewart
155,780   42.5
Frank Wagner
50,394   13.8
100% reporting (2,561 of 2,561 precincts)

Lieutenant Governor
Democratic Primary

CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.
Justin Fairfax
252,400   49.1%
Susan Platt
201,316   39.2
Gene Rossi
60,041   11.7
100% reporting (2,561 of 2,561 precincts)

Republican Primary

CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.
Jill Vogel
151,996   42.7%
Bryce Reeves
142,218   40.0
Glenn Davis
61,507   17.3
100% reporting (2,561 of 2,561 precincts)

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Total D vote vs. Total R vote:

Governor:

D: 543,042 (59.7%)
R: 366,273 (40.3%)

Total Turnout: 909,315

Lt. Governor:

D: 513,757 (59.1%)
R: 355,721 (40.9%)

Total Turnout: 869,478

[Alabama_Indy10]

Anybody know why the Dem primary ended up not being very close?

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Anybody know why the Dem primary ended up not being very close?

Fairfax/Arlington/Alexandria fell in love with Northam.

[PragmaticPopulist]

For what it's worth, here's a map of what party got more votes in every county:



Higher D turnout obviously tilted the scale in some counties, but Perriello really got a boost in his former district of VA-05. Northam also got a whopping 91.2% in Northampton County (his place of birth) and 89.1 in neighboring Accomack County

Also, one thing I like to check is the precinct at Tangier Island in Accomack County. I won't get into details about what's special about it here, but for anyone familiar with it, Corey Stewart won it with 49 votes.

[Mr. Smith]

Rockbridge Co. isn't usually a D heavy county, hasn't been since maybe the '90's. Kinda strange to see this happen.

[heatcharger]

For what it's worth, here's a map of what party got more votes in every county:

Thanks. This would be an excellent GE map, especially for Dem HoD candidates.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Spectacular work as always, Miles!

So the word on Dark Atlas is that Wagner basically ran as a moderate on economic issues.  I wonder how much support that bled from Gillespie.  I didn't follow his campaign at all but I didn't see any signs of his and I don't think he ran a single ad - and this is his home city.

Eyeballing that map, it appears Stewart won my precinct.

Wagner's focus was on investment in economic development rather than Gillespie's very original and thoughtful focus on tax cuts or Stewart's identity politics. Probably "took" net a significant amount from Gillespie, though certainly there were some Trump (primary) /Wagner voters, at least in Hampton Roads. He didn't have the funds for tv ads.  He ran them on talk radio though. 

Miles, do you have larger versions of those beautiful maps?

[PragmaticPopulist]

For what it's worth, here's a map of what party got more votes in every county:

Thanks. This would be an excellent GE map, especially for Dem HoD candidates.

I was thinking that as I made it. Periello really did turn back the clock some to make it look more like the results of an election from the 1990s.

[Kingpoleon]

For what it's worth, here's a map of what party got more votes in every county:



Higher D turnout obviously tilted the scale in some counties, but Perriello really got a boost in his former district of VA-05. Northam also got a whopping 91.2% in Northampton County (his place of birth) and 89.1 in neighboring Accomack County

Also, one thing I like to check is the precinct at Tangier Island in Accomack County. I won't get into details about what's special about it here, but for anyone familiar with it, Corey Stewart won it with 49 votes.

What's that in popular vote? Looking at similar maps and comparing them, I'd say between 59-60% D and 41-40% R, leaning more towards like 59.75%-40.25%.

[PragmaticPopulist]

For what it's worth, here's a map of what party got more votes in every county:



Higher D turnout obviously tilted the scale in some counties, but Perriello really got a boost in his former district of VA-05. Northam also got a whopping 91.2% in Northampton County (his place of birth) and 89.1 in neighboring Accomack County

Also, one thing I like to check is the precinct at Tangier Island in Accomack County. I won't get into details about what's special about it here, but for anyone familiar with it, Corey Stewart won it with 49 votes.

What's that in popular vote? Looking at similar maps and comparing them, I'd say between 59-60% D and 41-40% R, leaning more towards like 59.75%-40.25%.

Just did the math, and you're right. I got 59.7% - 40.3%.

[heatcharger]

Stewart acting like he won lol.

[Virginiá]

Stewart acting like he won lol.

Is it just me or is he doing similar hand gestures as Trump too? I don't see the 'o' 👌 shape with his fingers but I do see lots of finger pointing up and other similar movements.

[Beet]

It probably means he will run for office in the future and keep being a thorn in the side of Virginia Republicans.

[PragmaticPopulist]

It probably means he will run for office in the future and keep being a thorn in the side of Virginia Republicans.

At least Republicans now know to take him seriously. He could throw an election to a Democrat.

[Kamala]

It probably means he will run for office in the future and keep being a thorn in the side of Virginia Republicans.

At least Republicans now know to take him seriously. He could throw an election to a Democrat.

Maybe Kaine can McCaskill him.

[heatcharger]

Stewart acting like he won lol.

Is it just me or is he doing similar hand gestures as Trump too? I don't see the 'o' 👌 shape with his fingers but I do see lots of finger pointing up and other similar movements.

Yeah, he does a lot of ☝️. Trumpists probably find that endearing or something.

It probably means he will run for office in the future and keep being a thorn in the side of Virginia Republicans.

Sounds like it. I can't wait for the GOP clown car next year for the Senate primary.

[Skunk]

Maybe Kaine can McCaskill him.

Kaine doesn't even have to do that though, I don't see GOP winning that seat.

[PragmaticPopulist]

Rockbridge Co. isn't usually a D heavy county, hasn't been since maybe the '90's. Kinda strange to see this happen.

Democrats got only 39 more votes there than Republicans, so I kinda doubt Northam will win it in November. Northam narrowly won it though in the 2013 Lieutenant Governor election.

[Miles]

Spectacular work as always, Miles!

So the word on Dark Atlas is that Wagner basically ran as a moderate on economic issues.  I wonder how much support that bled from Gillespie.  I didn't follow his campaign at all but I didn't see any signs of his and I don't think he ran a single ad - and this is his home city.

Eyeballing that map, it appears Stewart won my precinct.

Wagner's focus was on investment in economic development rather than Gillespie's very original and thoughtful focus on tax cuts or Stewart's identity politics. Probably "took" net a significant amount from Gillespie, though certainly there were some Trump (primary) /Wagner voters, at least in Hampton Roads. He didn't have the funds for tv ads.  He ran them on talk radio though. 

Miles, do you have larger versions of those beautiful maps?

I need to make some slight changes to those, but I'll post them again (with larger versions) when I  do.

[Miles]

Also, I ran the CD breakdowns:







Excuse the conventional colors on this one:

[Kamala]

This bodes relatively well for the 2018 House elections seeing this high of Dem turnout, especially Comstock and Taylor's seats. I think Comstock's days are numbered, and Taylor could be swept up in a wave or even lose to a good candidate like Lewis in a mild Democratic-favoured year.

[Miles]

^ I couldn't believe Stewart carried VA-10!

[Badger]

The interwebs Bernie Bros (I bet almost none are in Virginia) are already railing against the Northam win and how they won't support a centrist. Gillespie has to love their support!

Northam is a much better candidate then Clinton was. No baggage, and actually has a clear message.

Just curious, what is it? The message that is. Serious question as I've only followed this race from afar.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Here are some comparison maps, which are as interesting for their differences as their similarities:



Perriello and Northam each got 91% in their best counties (Nelson and Northampton, respectively)