VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)

[Mr. Smith]

Until McAuliffe won, Virginia had a very long run of electing a governor of the opposite party of the president. McAuliffe bucked this trend because of the D trend in the state. Neither augurs well for Gillespie.

No, Cuccinelli was just a really awful candidate for the GOP. Bill Bolling would've ripped Fast Terry to shreds like it's '09 and Creigh Deeds is back in place.

Also, Gillespie did nearly take out Warner despite no resources AT ALL.

How about Fairfax vs Vogel? Predictions? Or will it simply go how the gubernatorial goes?

Eh, so goes the top, so goes part II.

[heatcharger]

How about Fairfax vs Vogel? Predictions? Or will it simply go how the gubernatorial goes?

A bit early to tell, but I think Fairfax is in a slightly weaker position than Northam because while I can't imagine many Gillespie/Fairfax voters, I certainly could see the opposite. That being said, Fairfax is a pretty captivating speaker, and I think his campaign will follow Northam's coattails pretty well.

Also, don't assume Herring is completely safe. His opponent is a former U.S. attorney named John Adams, and I could imagine him winning if Herring takes his seat for granted.

Bill Bolling would've ripped Fast Terry to shreds like it's '09 and Creigh Deeds is back in place.

Classic.

[Kamala]

How about Fairfax vs Vogel? Predictions? Or will it simply go how the gubernatorial goes?

A bit early to tell, but I think Fairfax is in a slightly weaker position than Northam because while I can't imagine many Gillespie/Fairfax voters, I certainly could see the opposite. That being said, Fairfax is a pretty captivating speaker, and I think his campaign will follow Northam's coattails pretty well.

Also, don't assume Herring is completely safe. His opponent is a former U.S. attorney named John Adams, and I could imagine him winning if Herring takes his seat for granted.

Bill Bolling would've ripped Fast Terry to shreds like it's '09 and Creigh Deeds is back in place.

Classic.

Ugh, just another carpetbagging Massachusetts liberal.

[heatcharger]

Also, don't assume Herring is completely safe. His opponent is a former U.S. attorney named John Adams, and I could imagine him winning if Herring takes his seat for granted.

Ugh, just another carpetbagging Massachusetts liberal.

Haha, yeah, that's honestly part of the reason I think he's a formidable candidate.

[RINO Tom]

As a side note on this election:  The GOP's vote share coming from NoVA has gone down from 2016.   This is actually pretty bad for them because it shows the NoVA "Republicans" that voted against Trump might be turning into perma-Democrats.

Also it allows the more conservative rural parts of the party to be more dominant in the state party in a state that is becoming more left-wing/moderate as a whole.   This is seen by the tight race with Gillespie and Stewart.  Gillespie fell short in NoVA while Stewart was strong out west.

Kind of the same situation California Republicans are in with their party being dominated by hardline conservatives in a state that doesn't match that ideology at all.

Shhh...don't tell RINO Tom

LOL, NOVA is a different beast.  There's zero reason to believe the wealthy and affluent suburbs of Indianapolis will shift to the Democratic Party because Atlas gets them the realignment memo.

[heatcharger]

LOL, NOVA is a different beast.  There's zero reason to believe the wealthy and affluent suburbs of Indianapolis will shift to the Democratic Party because Atlas gets them the realignment memo.

It just did...

[RINO Tom]

LOL, NOVA is a different beast.  There's zero reason to believe the wealthy and affluent suburbs of Indianapolis will shift to the Democratic Party because Atlas gets them the realignment memo.

It just did...

Sorry, I meant "shift" as in become reliable areas of support.  Trump was the worst fit imaginable, and he still won with 57% in Hamilton County (and more importantly, beat Hillary by 20 points ... Johnson got almost 6%).  Holcomb got 58% for governor, and Todd Young got 60% in Hamilton for the Senate race.  Susan Brooks got 61% for that House district.  Obviously, Trump provided a shift toward the Democrats, but it was from iron clad support to merely blowout support, and that is not reason to believe these voters are some new base for future Democrats.  And even if these areas DO eventually go Democratic, it will likely be because the areas changed significantly either demographically or culturally (i.e., become older suburbs with a more urban and less traditionally conservative character).

[Virginiá]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/obama-returning-to-campaign-trail-to-stump-for-northam-in-va-governors-race/2017/06/22/7d64456e-5793-11e7-ba90-f5875b7d1876_story.html

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We'll probably see a lot of big names criss-crossing Virginia this fall. It should be pretty easy for Obama too, since he still lives in DC.

Also, I thought this was pretty amusing coming from Gillespie's camp:

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A bit interesting for the people of a politician who failed to win his only race to be criticizing an actual elected official who has won numerous races, including his current statewide office like this.

[Virginiá]

Holcomb got 58% for governor, and Todd Young got 60% in Hamilton for the Senate race.  Susan Brooks got 61% for that House district.

To be fair, it's not that uncommon for presidential level defectors to vote with their old habits downballot, only to abandon those habits once the person they voted against wins the presidency. We saw a lot of that under Obama.

Not saying that will be the case here, but if it was, it wouldn't be uncommon. Long-term defections usually start at the top.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I am not Northam's spokeman. DavidTurner doesn't exist.

[heatcharger]

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Great news! I was kinda worried he would only campaign for Perriello, and honestly, I'm not sure how well Obama even knows Northam, but I'm looking forward to this anyway. Hopefully Tommy P gets on the stump as well.

Also, I thought this was pretty amusing coming from Gillespie's camp:

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Love the line right after that:

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[heatcharger]

Sorry, I meant "shift" as in become reliable areas of support.  Trump was the worst fit imaginable, and he still won with 57% in Hamilton County (and more importantly, beat Hillary by 20 points ... Johnson got almost 6%).  Holcomb got 58% for governor, and Todd Young got 60% in Hamilton for the Senate race.  Susan Brooks got 61% for that House district.  Obviously, Trump provided a shift toward the Democrats, but it was from iron clad support to merely blowout support, and that is not reason to believe these voters are some new base for future Democrats.  And even if these areas DO eventually go Democratic, it will likely be because the areas changed significantly either demographically or culturally (i.e., become older suburbs with a more urban and less traditionally conservative character).

Alright, but Trump will be on the ballot once again in three years, and I don't have much reason to believe someone in a completely different mold will be the Republican nominee in 2024, 2028, and maybe beyond. That's why I, among many, think the trends of the 2016 election will continue even as exceptions to them arise.

Just face it, the Trump brand has encapsulated the GOP in a way that's inescapable -- just look at the ridiculous lengths the party will go to defend him on things they trashed him on as a primary candidate, and they do it because the party wants that:



Trump is unquestionably the face of the Republican Party.

[PragmaticPopulist]

Sorry, I meant "shift" as in become reliable areas of support.  Trump was the worst fit imaginable, and he still won with 57% in Hamilton County (and more importantly, beat Hillary by 20 points ... Johnson got almost 6%).  Holcomb got 58% for governor, and Todd Young got 60% in Hamilton for the Senate race.  Susan Brooks got 61% for that House district.  Obviously, Trump provided a shift toward the Democrats, but it was from iron clad support to merely blowout support, and that is not reason to believe these voters are some new base for future Democrats.  And even if these areas DO eventually go Democratic, it will likely be because the areas changed significantly either demographically or culturally (i.e., become older suburbs with a more urban and less traditionally conservative character).

Alright, but Trump will be on the ballot once again in three years, and I don't have much reason to believe someone in a completely different mold will be the Republican nominee in 2024, 2028, and maybe beyond. That's why I, among many, think the trends of the 2016 election will continue even as exceptions to them arise.

Just face it, the Trump brand has encapsulated the GOP in a way that's inescapable -- just look at the ridiculous lengths the party will go to defend him on things they trashed him on as a primary candidate, and they do it because the party wants that:



Trump is unquestionably the face of the Republican Party.

You never know. Whenever this kind of topic comes up, I think back to what happened with George H.W. Bush. While it's not a perfect comparison, he did disappoint the GOP base at the time, and went down in flames in 1992, and as a result, the Republicans leadership convinced itself it needed to go back to a more Reaganesque platform. They did do that, but it evolved into a Reagan-on-steroids platform.

Anyway, getting back to the topic, the Indianapolis suburbs could, in the long term, start flipping, just like the once Rock-ribbed Republican Richmond suburbs are becoming swing areas now.

[Deblano]

To beat a dead horse here, how well could Gillespie do in Northern Virginia?

[Gass3268]

To beat a dead horse here, how well could Gillespie do in Northern Virginia?

Depends how well Northam ties him to Trump.

[heatcharger]

To beat a dead horse here, how well could Gillespie do in Northern Virginia?

He'll do significantly worse than his 2014 run since I don't think Northam comes off as a tax-and-spend liberal the way Perriello would have, and the political climate is much worse for Republicans in the state now than it was then. I'll be surprised if Gillespie breaks 40% in Fairfax and 45% in Loudoun and PW again.

Northam's been kinda dormant since his primary win though. I don't think he can singlehandedly rely on Trump being unpopular to drive turnout.

[Virginiá]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/gillespies-primary-scare-has-white-house-others-urging-trump-world-hires/2017/07/12/c9e4b8ac-5f3f-11e7-8adc-fea80e32bf47_story.html

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Shameless politics 101:

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[heatcharger]

Shameless politics 101:

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Virginia Republicans are so cute. That's actually a step down from the 15 debates Cooch proposed in 2013.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

While the trend of the opposite party winning the governorship of who won the presidency the year prior was broken in 2013, I think it's returning. Trump is just way too toxic in the state.

[PragmaticPopulist]

Shameless politics 101:

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Virginia Republicans are so cute. That's actually a step down from the 15 debates Cooch proposed in 2013.

I remember reading somewhere that Gillespie mainly wanted to debate Northam in SW VA coal country so he could hit him over the "war on coal". When will the VA GOP learn that that's not how you win statewide in VA these days. Trump probably maxed out the GOP vote share in SW VA already, and still lost statewide by 5% because of his toxicity in NOVA.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Shameless politics 101:

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Virginia Republicans are so cute. That's actually a step down from the 15 debates Cooch proposed in 2013.

I remember reading somewhere that Gillespie mainly wanted to debate Northam in SW VA coal country so he could hit him over the "war on coal". When will the VA GOP learn that that's not how you win statewide in VA these days. Trump probably maxed out the GOP vote share in SW VA already, and still lost statewide by 5% because of his toxicity in NOVA.

Trump did comically worse in NOVA even for a republican. Gillespie will do far better there. Question is if he can match what he did there in 2014, which would be enough to win if he matches Trump in SW VA and matches Romney elsewhere.

[Gass3268]

Shameless politics 101:

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Virginia Republicans are so cute. That's actually a step down from the 15 debates Cooch proposed in 2013.

I remember reading somewhere that Gillespie mainly wanted to debate Northam in SW VA coal country so he could hit him over the "war on coal". When will the VA GOP learn that that's not how you win statewide in VA these days. Trump probably maxed out the GOP vote share in SW VA already, and still lost statewide by 5% because of his toxicity in NOVA.

Trump did comically worse in NOVA even for a republican. Gillespie will do far better there. Question is if he can match what he did there in 2014, which would be enough to win if he matches Trump in SW VA and matches Romney elsewhere.

There is no way that he'll be able to match his 2014 results. McAuliffe is too popular and Trump will be too much of a drag on him there. The race might end up looking close, but structurally it is almost impossible for a Democrat to lose now.

[PragmaticPopulist]

Shameless politics 101:

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Virginia Republicans are so cute. That's actually a step down from the 15 debates Cooch proposed in 2013.

I remember reading somewhere that Gillespie mainly wanted to debate Northam in SW VA coal country so he could hit him over the "war on coal". When will the VA GOP learn that that's not how you win statewide in VA these days. Trump probably maxed out the GOP vote share in SW VA already, and still lost statewide by 5% because of his toxicity in NOVA.

Trump did comically worse in NOVA even for a republican. Gillespie will do far better there. Question is if he can match what he did there in 2014, which would be enough to win if he matches Trump in SW VA and matches Romney elsewhere.

Thing is, I doubt Gillespie will match Trump' showing in SW VA. Gillespie seems like a poor cultural fit for the area. I'm actually expecting Northam to overperform a bit in SW VA because of his rural background.

[Suburbia]

Will suburban white Virginia women vote for Gillespie or Northam?

[heatcharger]

Thing is, I doubt Gillespie will match Trump' showing in SW VA. Gillespie seems like a poor cultural fit for the area. I'm actually expecting Northam to overperform a bit in SW VA because of his rural background.

Northam is much more likely to overperform relative to the average Democrat in the rural Chesapeake Bay area rather than SW VA. There were some parts in the Southwest where E.W. Jackson actually did better than Eric Bolling, so it's safe to say that region is completely gone.

Will suburban white Virginia women vote for Gillespie or Northam?

Northam. Any more questions about random demographics?