VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 02:37:53 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Gubernatorial/State Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, GeorgiaModerate, Gass3268, Virginiá, Gracile)
  VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 26 27 28 29 30 [31] 32 33 34 35 36 ... 73
Author Topic: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)  (Read 159874 times)
🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸
shua
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 25,664
Nepal


Political Matrix
E: 1.29, S: -0.70

WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #750 on: July 15, 2017, 03:41:09 PM »

Will suburban white Virginia women vote for Gillespie or Northam?

Yes.
Logged
Miles
MilesC56
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,324
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #751 on: July 15, 2017, 03:47:57 PM »

Thing is, I doubt Gillespie will match Trump' showing in SW VA. Gillespie seems like a poor cultural fit for the area. I'm actually expecting Northam to overperform a bit in SW VA because of his rural background.

Northam is much more likely to overperform relative to the average Democrat in the rural Chesapeake Bay area rather than SW VA. There were some parts in the Southwest where E.W. Jackson actually did better than Eric Bolling, so it's safe to say that region is completely gone.

*Bill Bolling Wink
Logged
SATW
SunriseAroundTheWorld
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,463
United States
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #752 on: July 15, 2017, 05:05:17 PM »

I think Northam is clearly favored, but the zeal in which some of my fellow Virginians are commenting here with is a bit much.

It is silly to say that it is "structurally impossible" for Gillespie to win. Was the same not said about Trump? It's better to be cautious during the campaign and happy on election night than to be cocky during the campaign and heartbroken on election night. Just saying.

 
Logged
heatcharger
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,235
Sweden


Political Matrix
E: -1.04, S: -0.24

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #753 on: July 15, 2017, 08:56:15 PM »

It is silly to say that it is "structurally impossible" for Gillespie to win. Was the same not said about Trump? It's better to be cautious during the campaign and happy on election night than to be cocky during the campaign and heartbroken on election night. Just saying.

But Virginia is not Wisconsin, Michigan, or Pennsylvania, and Gillespie is definitely not Trump. There is no obvious demographic group here that's set to shift away from Democrats to Republicans more than they already have. As you know the state is largely inelastic as a whole, and the region that continues to grow in terms of % of the state population is still trending Democratic.

I do partially agree that it's not 'structurally impossible' for a Republican to win statewide considering how close Gillespie was in 2014, and people really should be tempering their expectations on how strong NOVA will be for Northam (he will not get near matching Clinton's margins), but Gillespie isn't running in the same political climate as he was last time. Turnout will also be much better this time around.

Northam is much more likely to overperform relative to the average Democrat in the rural Chesapeake Bay area rather than SW VA. There were some parts in the Southwest where E.W. Jackson actually did better than Eric Bolling, so it's safe to say that region is completely gone.

*Bill Bolling Wink

Sad to say that isn't the first time I've made that mistake.
Logged
henster
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,975


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #754 on: July 16, 2017, 01:21:21 AM »

Great GE ad from Northam really shows the contrast between the candidates Army vet/Doctor vs. career lobbyist/party insider.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tq8guaC8dcI
Logged
BlueDogDemocrat
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 289
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #755 on: July 16, 2017, 02:55:24 AM »

Great GE ad from Northam really shows the contrast between the candidates Army vet/Doctor vs. career lobbyist/party insider.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tq8guaC8dcI
I think this is the right message that Northam needs to be going for. He should definitely keep portraying himself as an outside and really hammer Ed's career in D.C.
Logged
PragmaticPopulist
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,234
Ireland, Republic of


Political Matrix
E: -7.61, S: -5.57

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #756 on: July 16, 2017, 11:33:21 AM »

Great GE ad from Northam really shows the contrast between the candidates Army vet/Doctor vs. career lobbyist/party insider.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tq8guaC8dcI
I think this is the right message that Northam needs to be going for. He should definitely keep portraying himself as an outside and really hammer Ed's career in D.C.
Which is why I think Gillespie will under perform in SW VA and the Shenandoah Valley. Gillespie immediately comes off as a DC insider.
Logged
Miles
MilesC56
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,324
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #757 on: July 17, 2017, 11:31:54 AM »

Northam raises $2M, has almost as much on hand.
Logged
Gass3268
Moderator
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,478
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #758 on: July 19, 2017, 10:41:16 AM »

These are starting to pop up around Virginia:

Logged
OneJ
OneJ_
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,834
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #759 on: July 19, 2017, 11:08:56 AM »

These are starting to pop up around Virginia:

~snip~
Don't they realize that tying Gillespie with Trump won't necessarily help him in a state like this?

Logged
heatcharger
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,235
Sweden


Political Matrix
E: -1.04, S: -0.24

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #760 on: July 19, 2017, 11:21:41 AM »

These are starting to pop up around Virginia:

~snip~
Don't they realize that tying Gillespie with Trump won't necessarily help him in a state like this?


Are you talking about Republicans? Because it's the VA Democrats who made a few of these signs.

I'm not a fan of this really. Trump is unpopular in Virginia, but Gillespie is bad in his own right. I'd prefer Northam not engage in this rather lazy form of campaigning.
Logged
OneJ
OneJ_
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,834
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #761 on: July 19, 2017, 11:31:32 AM »

These are starting to pop up around Virginia:

~snip~
Don't they realize that tying Gillespie with Trump won't necessarily help him in a state like this?


Are you talking about Republicans? Because it's the VA Democrats who made a few of these signs.

I'm not a fan of this really. Trump is unpopular in Virginia, but Gillespie is bad in his own right. I'd prefer Northam not engage in this rather lazy form of campaigning.
Ah, my bad. That makes a whole lot more sense now.

I agree with you though that Northam should focus on what makes Gillespie bad instead of the other way of campaigning though.
Logged
P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong
razze
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,072
Cuba


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -4.96


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #762 on: July 19, 2017, 11:50:14 AM »

The signs say its the Va. Democrats' signage, and I agree that they should stick to talking about Gillespie directly, but something like these signs can't hurt, especially when an undecided voter who only knows about national politics needs to be swayed
Logged
Mr. Reactionary
blackraisin
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,784
United States


Political Matrix
E: 5.45, S: -3.35

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #763 on: July 19, 2017, 12:13:29 PM »

Shameless politics 101:
Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

Enron Ed is such a loser.
Logged
Deblano
EdgarAllenYOLO
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,680
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #764 on: July 19, 2017, 01:04:15 PM »

These are starting to pop up around Virginia:

~snip~
Don't they realize that tying Gillespie with Trump won't necessarily help him in a state like this?



This would only make sense if Stewart was the nominee.

Gillespie has at least been somewhat of a "NeverTrumper"
Logged
Gass3268
Moderator
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,478
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #765 on: July 20, 2017, 09:42:48 AM »

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.
Logged
_
Not_Madigan
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,103
United States


Political Matrix
E: -3.29, S: -7.74

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #766 on: July 20, 2017, 04:16:54 PM »


*facepalm*
Logged
Virginiá
Virginia
Administratrix
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,856
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.97, S: -5.91

WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #767 on: July 20, 2017, 04:23:40 PM »


Looks like Stewart didn't need to win after all in order to help derail Republican prospects in this race. I get Gillespie probably felt like he was in a bind, but this was a bad decision. I'd also venture a guess that in the end, even if Gillespie did manage to pull out a win, it will be in spite of, not because of it.
Logged
heatcharger
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,235
Sweden


Political Matrix
E: -1.04, S: -0.24

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #768 on: July 20, 2017, 04:31:48 PM »


Looks like Stewart didn't need to win after all in order to help derail Republican prospects in this race. I get Gillespie probably felt like he was in a bind, but this was a bad decision. I'd also venture a guess that in the end, even if Gillespie did manage to pull out a win, it will be in spite of, not because of it.

Well, since Stewart is such a sore loser that he still hasn't conceded, Gillespie probably thinks he has to make overtures to the far right to get Stewart's supporters back on board. I also saw this article last week, which included this tidbit about Gillespie's staff:

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

Considering the way they're treating Guadagno, I guess the Romney McDaniel-led RNC would rather cut off their arm than extend it to people who were mean to Trump in last year's presidential primary.
Logged
Virginiá
Virginia
Administratrix
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,856
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.97, S: -5.91

WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #769 on: July 20, 2017, 04:56:38 PM »
« Edited: July 20, 2017, 04:58:50 PM by Virginia »

Considering the way they're treating Guadagno, I guess the Romney McDaniel-led RNC would rather cut off their arm than extend it to people who were mean to Trump in last year's presidential primary.

Oh that's a good point. I know the RGA earmarked 5 million dollars to support, what they said at the time, "whoever" wins the nomination, so I imagine Gillespie wants to make sure he gets that. I'm not sure if Trump could yank that away out of spite, but he could have certainly tried.

It's funny, because for a lot of the later Obama years, I became embittered with a president I believed didn't care as much as he should have about the party, but now Republicans have a president who probably couldn't care less, even to the point of trashing their prospects in certain races just because he feels slighted. I don't know if we'll ever have a president that has put themselves above country and party as much as Trump.
Logged
henster
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,975


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #770 on: July 21, 2017, 12:44:56 PM »

Who is voting on pipelines? This is a ridiculous wedge issue..
Logged
Deblano
EdgarAllenYOLO
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,680
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #771 on: July 21, 2017, 07:45:49 PM »

Who is voting on pipelines? This is a ridiculous wedge issue..
Logged
🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸
shua
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 25,664
Nepal


Political Matrix
E: 1.29, S: -0.70

WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #772 on: July 22, 2017, 04:55:01 PM »


Yeah those stupid people voting on an issue related to energy, jobs, tourism, the environment, and property rights lol
Logged
windjammer
Atlas Politician
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,512
France


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #773 on: July 23, 2017, 06:35:13 AM »

Who won the debate?
Logged
Deblano
EdgarAllenYOLO
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,680
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #774 on: July 24, 2017, 11:57:15 AM »

I have absolutely no idea who I'm gonna vote for at this rate.

I like both candidates.
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 26 27 28 29 30 [31] 32 33 34 35 36 ... 73  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.072 seconds with 13 queries.