VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)

[KingSweden]

Another point: If Perriello wins the Governor's race, he is immediately my hands-down favorite for 2020.

I think this is his only real selling point over Northam, personally

[KingSweden]

Northam aligns more with my own views but Perriello has more long term upside, IMO. Also - it's not like Perriello is some progressive gadfly who can't win outside of a liberal enclave. The guy won a very conservative downstate district and narrowly lost in 2010. He had an A from the NRA after all.

Honestly both these candidates would be good for talking to non base voters. It's just a question of whether rural voters or Hampton Roads voters are more important

[KingSweden]

Apparently Perriello has been out campaigning for candidates in tomorrow's special elections

[KingSweden]

Apparently Perriello has been out campaigning for candidates in tomorrow's special elections

Hmm and what has Northam been doing?

Whatever an establishment whore does in their spare time, I guess.

Do you ever stop being awful?

Glad Perriello is doing this, I just saw Lt. Gov. Northam at a phonebank/fundraiser on Saturday helping do some calls for Tuesday's election, he was also at Del. Patrick Hope's "Pancakes with Pat" charity and local issues meetup that day also.

Good! They should both be involved in those kinds of activities

[KingSweden]

Am I the only one who wouldn't mind either Perriello or Northam being governor?

Me too! They're both wonderful candidates.

[KingSweden]

One thing I think the Perriello did is light a fire under Ralph Northam's bum - and I'm very appreciative of that regardless of who wins the primary.

These two candidates are inspiring one another to do their best work.

Well said

[KingSweden]

Perriello and Northam have been remarkably civil for a very contested primary, and I think it's a testament to how good a guys they are. Truthfully, despite Northam's previous and present fiscal views, I think he would be a good Governor of Virginia. and I'm sure many Northam people think the same of Perriello. I think Perriello would be a better Governor for a few reasons but I'm sure Northam people think differently (and I agree with the idea that Northam would be better on some of the local issues, though not all, especially those related to DOMINION POWER) and that's good.

This is not a race to get angry about or pout IM NOT GONNA VOTE FOR SO AND SO over.

Well said, Maxwell

[KingSweden]

Perriello endorsed by Jon Grisham, so I may have to go with him now (only half serious)

[KingSweden]

Perriello should run for Warner's seat if he retires (hopefully) in 2020.

Doubt Warner leaves, but yes. Perriello has a bright future in the Commonwealth

[KingSweden]

Perriello is too good for the spineless bureaucrats of NoVa. Sad!

Oh well, best wishes to Northam.

This race was more national vs state interests, really. Northam and Tom P pretty close on most issues

[KingSweden]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/874791887185510404

*snort*

How awkward

[KingSweden]

Kind of the same situation California Republicans are in with their party being dominated by hardline conservatives in a state that doesn't match that ideology at all.

If only the legislature had listened to Bob McDonnell and moderated, they may have a chance of being competitive. Looks like they figure they have to max-out the vote share in SW VA (which is declining in population), but are alienating voters in high-population areas. It's ironic, since back in the day, the best region for the Democrats was SW VA, while Republicans did best in NOVA and Richmond's suburbs.

Note that the GOP could treat VA as a safe state because of that. Same thing happened in WA, honestly

[KingSweden]

Yeah, after Charlottesville, Gillespie is toast.

I wouldn't go that far, but it certainly doesn't help him

[KingSweden]

Gillespie and the VA GOP seem to be trying their hardest to piss away a pretty winnable race

[KingSweden]

Liam Donovan (sharp ex-GOP campaign guru, and NeverTrumper) linked to a medium.com post by a Dem operative in VA who thinks Northam is on a trajectory to lose. Has anyone seen evidence of this? Polls seem to show a consistent 4-5 point lead for Dems

[KingSweden]

Liam Donovan (sharp ex-GOP campaign guru, and NeverTrumper) linked to a medium.com post by a Dem operative in VA who thinks Northam is on a trajectory to lose. Has anyone seen evidence of this? Polls seem to show a consistent 4-5 point lead for Dems

Nope, no evidence, Northam is obviously secure, no need to worry, ignore that fool completely.

TBF I do think Gillespie has made the race close with his ad buys being more substantial than Northam's

[KingSweden]

A lot of people are talking out of their ass about this race. I think I'll trust like 50 polls that just came out within the last week over some rando on Twitter who only has 55 tweets. I guess certain people wish this race produced more drama, but that's not what you're gonna get with these two candidates.

To me, I think it really depends on who has the enthusiasm advantage here. Yes, these are kind of boring candidates (imo), and Northam doesn't really have a spark, but he's not that bad of a candidate. In the end, he's still been leading comfortably in pretty much every poll - polls that were accurate in 2016 when push came to shove. Combined with that, despite people constantly mentioning Gillespie 2014, this is not a favorable year for the GOP. Turnout dropped in 2014 below historical standards, and the wave environment helped him. If anyone would over-perform this year, it would probably be Northam, as we all know Democrats are very enthusiastic right now. The massive primary participation earlier this year is one more example (albeit maybe a weak one) of that.

I don't know, personally, I wouldn't be betting on the candidate who is losing in every poll in a year under a deeply unpopular Republican president - especially in a state that has a history of turning on the WH in-party.

On that note, has Gillespie been ahead, or within the MoE, in more than what, one poll?

Still don't like how close this has become. I preferred Perriello, as much as that may surprise some of you.

[KingSweden]

I don't think a lot of people are saying that Gillespie will win, or that the polls are wrong (or at least I'm not) Just from what I've read, the polling, the ads etc I get the sense that the race could be going a lot better for Northam.

I know statewide races are different, and there's a possible danger in making it national (it's Virginia, not New York) but I don't know why Warren/Booker/Harris/Kaine etc aren't campaigning and why national democrats aren't making a lot of noise about this race.

Kaine at minimum

[KingSweden]

It’s a tight race, folks. Did we expect something else?

Hell a one day average of today’s polls is Northam +3. That seems reasonable to me.

[KingSweden]

Apparently there's low enthusiasm for Gillespie in rural/SWVA.

Obviously Gillespie needs them to turn out in high numbers on election day.

The “wearing a coal miners hat” money quote does more to underline our identity-obsessed politics than anything else I’ve seen in a while

[KingSweden]

National Journal: Progressives fear that Northam could pave the way for a moderate revival within the party

Haha.

God forbid we have a big tent for all the people fleeing the dumpster fire of the GOP

[KingSweden]

It's only identity politics when minorities do it. It's defending your heritage when whites do it.

[KingSweden]

I would buy some shares but I’m only 15 and I’m broke since I spent all my money on battlefront 2.

Suddenly everything makes sense.

Did you know that Chris Gregoire actually won the 2004 election by 6% but Rossi actually hired Idahoans to vote illegally in Spokane. This is as true as any story Mr Greedo spins.

10/10

[KingSweden]

So more bad news for northam Douglas wilder has no endorsement.
https://mobile.twitter.com/GovernorWilder/status/926129906576224256?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

LOL. I believe Wilder has done this with literally every Democratic nominee for Governor since he stepped down. He's about as representative of and influential among Democrats as "Democratic pollster" Pat Cadell.

He did endorse Fairfax.

Hmm isn’t there something Wilder and Fairfax have in common...?

[KingSweden]

So, if we sidestep the hysteria am I wrong in noting that a) we have a lot of polls from reputable pollsters that aren't herding and are spread in a nice normal distribution around a clear Northam lead in a state where the polls got it just right in last year's election and b) the early vote totals show significantly depressed turnout in the strongly Republican areas compared to Democratic strongholds.

Like, sure, Gillespie could win but all the actual numbers I see don't back that up at all. Am I missing anything?

Yup ya missed how Gillespie gonna win 63-37 now an win fairfax county now cuz all undecideds go Republican

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