VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)

[Roronoa D. Law]

This is the text of the monument that was torn down.

"United States troops took over the state government and reinstated the usurpers but the national election of November 1876 recognized white supremacy in the South and gave us our state"

[Roronoa D. Law]

Who would have thought the most interesting primaries where on the R's side? That East-West divide is seriously bad it playing out in all races.

[Roronoa D. Law]

The race is lean D at least Gillespie has a tough path not as bad a Guadagno. Loudoun and Virginia Beach are counties to watch especially for Comstock and Taylor reelection bid.  

[Roronoa D. Law]

Interesting Gillespie surged in western Virginia and eastern Virginia up slightly in central Virginia down in northern Virginia.
The polls says that the MS-13 ad is working.

The samples are completely different this time around (+2% more repubs than dems; in 2016, it was +7% more dems than repubs). This poll is actually showing that Northam is up among independents. A few months ago Northam was consistently losing independents.

Don't forget that Virginia polls overestimate the dems look at 2006 2013 2014

But were dead on correct in 2016.

I know but off Elections always underestimate the republicans last poll that Gillespie had a lead i believe was march or April so this is th first that's different also interesting barely any undecided voters.

No they don't you ignoramous.

I know in off year election many can expect AA voters turnout to drop this polls show they make up 16% of the vote down from 20% in 2013 and more in line with 2009. Considering that Fairfax is on the ticket and Trump feud with NFL, Obama, and Charlottesville I doubt it will be that low. 

[Roronoa D. Law]

Interesting Gillespie surged in western Virginia and eastern Virginia up slightly in central Virginia down in northern Virginia.
The polls says that the MS-13 ad is working.

The samples are completely different this time around (+2% more repubs than dems; in 2016, it was +7% more dems than repubs). This poll is actually showing that Northam is up among independents. A few months ago Northam was consistently losing independents.

Don't forget that Virginia polls overestimate the dems look at 2006 2013 2014

But were dead on correct in 2016.

I know but off Elections always underestimate the republicans last poll that Gillespie had a lead i believe was march or April so this is th first that's different also interesting barely any undecided voters.

off Elections don't underestimate Republicans.

I ment off Election polls under estimate the republicans.

This poll overestimate Republicans. Republicans will not outnumber Democrats voter share on election day.

[Roronoa D. Law]

For some reason, I sense that Gillespie has more real popularity, whereas Northam is the candidate the Democrats were stuck with.  For their own good, of course.

I sense a Gillespie upset.  And it will be an upset, because Northam should win.  But I sense he won't.

Northam won fair and square win a large margin with higher than expected turnout. Gillespie barely got out of his primary and the party is not totally unified behind him. Plus his popularity is basically an extension of the Bushes not necessarily for his own accomplishment or statesmanship. 

[Roronoa D. Law]

The campaign statement didn't reject the ad.

https://twitter.com/PoliticoKevin/status/925045143299817473

Let's not pretend that the Gillespie campaign has been keeping the moral high ground.

[Roronoa D. Law]

Another Ralph Northam supports sex offenders ad from Gillespie

Will their be a chorus of commendation to this one too?

No, America has a pretty low bar when it comes to Republicans and that was before Trump.

[Roronoa D. Law]

Larry Sabato got a good op-ed out on the on VA and NJ. He seems to think that Chesterfield is the county to watch. If Gillespie is in the high single digits he'll be close or might win. Cuccinelli and Gillespie in 2014 got 9% in Chesterfield and still lost.

[Roronoa D. Law]

Northam still going to win. VA is not a Sanders state to begin with doubt anybody will stay home because they unendorse him. But Democrats especially the Sanders wing needs to get off it high horse about the ideological purity test. I mean is DFA going to endorse Gillespie?

[Roronoa D. Law]

Does anyone know if early vote numbers look good or bad for Northam? I haven't seen too much about ballot numbers other than the Fairfax post a few pages back.

                     13          17
State of VA   128,497   193,196
Top 5 largest increase from 13: Manassas City, Accomack County, Manassas Park City, Prince William County, Prince Edward County
Top 5 largest decrease from 13: Grayson County, Richmond County, Smyth County, Galax City, Danville City

[Roronoa D. Law]

Well if Northam lost at least we have a reason. Party infighting! I'll give GOP one thing at least all the fight ends when the General election starts.

[Roronoa D. Law]

Idk look at the presidential race way more Republicans were against Trump than Democrats against Clinton

Both parties fight amongst themselves from time to time, idont think either has a huge advantage in terms of 'unity'.

Republicans who hate their nominee will hold their nose and vote for them in an election.

Democrats who hate their nominee will either vote for a third party, or for trump or stay home.

This! If you look at other Western countries you see that the left is divided in multiples different parties but the right wing is usually bounded to 1 and sometimes 2 parties.