VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)

[Hydera]

If Northam wins: Progressives threaten to stay home.

If Perriello wins: Progressives brag about winning.

[Hydera]

If Northam wins: Progressives threaten to stay home.

If Perriello wins: Progressives brag about winning.

True. I wonder how Virginia centrists will vote. Gillespie? Write in Mark Warner?

Centrist Democrats will vote for their party.

[Hydera]

dat east-west divide.

[Hydera]

Pet theory: more "swing voters" voted for Northam because his last name is cooler.

[Hydera]

As always urban precincts are counted last but considering white urbanites will lean Perriello will tie with AA urbanites leaning Northam it wont change the margin that much.

[Hydera]

Stewart did much better in Fairfax than he should have. I don't see how Gillespie wins in November.

He probably won't. Virginia is not purple like the GOP would have you believe. It is a purplish blue/indigo.

MA is deep blue and they have a GOP governor.  Not saying Ed will win, but it's not impossible.

Much much different circumstances. Massachusetts GOP governors are socially liberal and economically closer to a moderate democrat(Romney supported his state's health reform). Meanwhile Virginia GOP are socially and economically conservative.

[Hydera]

Who did blacks support in the dem primary?

Black precints and the one majority black city has Northam 60-70% over Perriello.

[Hydera]

It's strange how pretty much everyone has been treating the candidate who has consistently trailed in the polls as the favorite in this race from pretty much the day after the primary.  Not that he can't win and not that Northam hasn't done some dumb stuff this week, but the whole thing just seems very odd to me.

Nobody wants to be wrong especially after last year. I do remember the same thing being said about JBE during Louisiana in '15 saying he was going to lose just barely because it was Louisiana and ended up winning comfortably.

[Hydera]

Idk look at the presidential race way more Republicans were against Trump than Democrats against Clinton

Both parties fight amongst themselves from time to time, idont think either has a huge advantage in terms of 'unity'.

Republicans who hate their nominee will hold their nose and vote for them in an election.

Democrats who hate their nominee will either vote for a third party, or for trump or stay home.

[Hydera]

At this point, it's pretty clear we're in one of the below scenarios:

1. Northam is begging and pleading to Fairfax County throughout the count to boost him over the top, and wins by %.
2. Gillespie wins.

Both are bad for the democratic party. In a Clinton +5 state, and with Trump in mid 30s approvals, they should be winning by double digits. The party needs to do some serious soul-searching no matter who wins.

The party needed to do some serious soul searching long before they nominated this Bush supporter.

You think an ardent ultraprogressive would surely win Governor race in Virginia? May be even in South Carolina and Alabama too? These states are not California.

P.S. I don't see a very progressive Fairfax doing much better in polls then Northam.

Berniebro theory of politics: Always run a progressive in every race and if they fail who cares at least you get to complain because being a berniebro complaining is just as good as governing.

[Hydera]

0ptimus/Firehouse, Trafalgar, and the Polling Company I believe are all Republican pollsters. If you included the 5 most recent nonpartisan polls in the average, you would get:

Rasmussen - Tie
Gravis - N+5
Roanoke - Tie
Suffolk - N+4
WashPost/Schar - N+5

Average - N+2.8

I hope being out of the white house means the dem gets a mid-term bonus and pushes that to 5% on election day. Otherwise had it been +2.8 in '13 VA election then the republicans would had won that by 1.5%.

[Hydera]

If we lose this, maybe Democrats will learn to stop going with the milquetoast candidate (Northam) just because he's next in line, over the candidate with actual enthusiasm behind him (Perrielo).

Perriello has so much enthusiasm he lost the primary.

If Perriello was the candidate he'd suffer the same polling convergence when Gillespie released the MS-13 ad, as well as LVF releasing that dumb ad in response, driving up enthusiasm amongst rural/suburbanite republicans.

[Hydera]

Why the heck is this Race so close?

Ed Gillespie is doing the trumpian strategy to win and increase turnout amongst republican rural and suburban voters to win by appealing to racial sentiments without it being overtly racist. By releasing an ad about MS-13. This got republican voters fired up. At the same time the democratic base being the democratic base is still bad with off year turnout and isnt getting enough votes in return to counter a surge amongst republican voters.