VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)

[heatcharger]

Does Perriello have any major electability issues?

Not any that I've heard about him, although it's been a while (7 years) since he ran a campaign, so he might not be as polished as Northam might be.

My issue with Northam mainly is that he's totally anonymous for someone who won handily in 2013. A Quinnipiac poll from last month showed 64% of Dems had no opinion of him, and while he could make this up, he doesn't strike me as a particularly dynamic candidate.

That being said, I'm not buying that VA is Titanium D in all races. I'll wait to see if Dems can replicate Clinton's margins in NOVA before I say that. Gillespie is no joke either, so I just want the most electable candidate, which Northam very well may be. I'll have to see what develops in the next few months.

Both would probably be favored against Gillespie (or whoever wins the GOP nomination), but this is still Northam's race to lose.

I'm not sure, a PPP poll from July 2015 showed Mark Herring leading Northam 33-9 in the primary. Northam hasn't really done anything since then to raise his name ID.

[heatcharger]

I've always liked Perriello, but I'll be volunteering for Northam.  

Change your avatar then.

First of all, Northam is not a Dixiecrat or anything like that. He's not even as conservative as Webb for that matter. He's a typical VA Dem, but further, Perriello isn't even some "progressive hero". He just happened to fight for Obamacare and the Obama administration when it wasn't popular to do so.

Also, you have a Green avatar, lol. Why do you get to insinuate that Miles is too conservative to be a Democrat, if by your own admission you don't fit in the Democratic spectrum either? You should be aware that VA is not a progressive bastion, exemplified by the slew of centrist politicians, as well as Bernie getting crushed in the primary.

[heatcharger]

Fundraising this year: Perriello $1.1M, Northam $340k.

Impressive, but Northam still has a large war chest at his disposal.

[heatcharger]

Northam says he voted for George W. Bush both times.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/democratic-candidate-for-virginia-governor-says-he-voted-for-george-w-bush-twice_us_58b48eb9e4b0780bac2c68d5

This doesn't really matter largely because there are many Democrats and Democratic-leaners in the state who did the same thing.

It's quite interesting how the Bernie-wing has co-opted Perriello to be some sort of left-wing populist when he's really more like a 2008 Hillary Clinton, and an Obamaite to boot as well. I like him because of those traits, but he's spent a little too much time crafting an anti-Trump strategy rather than boasting his policies and credentials. He also seems liable to make a gaffe that Republicans would punish him for, which he has already done. That's why I'll probably vote for Northam.

UGH. DINOs are the worst.

yeah...

[heatcharger]

Northam is a symbol of upper-middle class democrats, which is awful.

Perriello is also an upper-middle class Democrat. There are a lot of them in Virginia. Get over yourself.

[heatcharger]

Northam and Fairfax handily win an Alexandria St. Patrick's Day straw poll. Fantastic news!

Obviously a straw poll means very little, but it confirms my thinking that Perriello needs to run far ahead of Bernie Sanders did in rural areas. We'll see if he can.

[heatcharger]

A couple of my friends dragged into going to the Tom Perriello / Bernie Sanders rally at GMU tonight. The crowd was made up of the exact white latte liberals you'd expect to show up to this kind of rally.

I gotta say, it reaffirmed my position that I'd be happy voting for Perriello in a GE, and he is a good guy. However, his platform is pretty shallow in my opinion, and he really does play up a lot of cliches about 'resisting' and being 'progressive', and that still seems quite disingenuine to me. I do think he's doing himself and the party a favor by not poisoning the well with Northam, and that kind of strategy won't turn Clinton voters off from him. I would not at all be shocked if he holds Northam's margins in Fairfax and Loudoun to single-digits, which could give him a path to victory.

Bernie Sanders, on the other hand, said nothing new and regurgitated his stump speech from the presidential campaign, and he even falsely stated that Perriello supports his free tuition college plan, when in fact, Perriello is only in favor of making trade school and community college debt-free. And my god, some his supporters really do act like members of a cult.

[heatcharger]

Oh I'm not denying that Perriello has nuanced policies up his sleeve, and he actually does have some noteworthy positions on automation and the decentralization of food production that I really want to hear more about, but he just doesn't give it the time of day. The main reason I'm really skeptical of him is because I think he belongs in the federal government and not in Richmond, but he knows that this is a better springboard into something higher up. I just want someone to be the Governor of Virginia first and foremost.

[heatcharger]

One of his first Virginian endorsements.

[heatcharger]

NARAL endorsed Northam.

Makes Perriello's switch on this look even worse, IMO.

Was Perriello pro-life?

I'm pretty sure he's always been pro-choice, but he legislated like a pro-lifer, voting for the Stupak amendment in the ACA which would've prohibited the use of federal funds for abortion. I guess the Hyde Amendment didn't suffice.

[heatcharger]

NARAL endorsed Northam.

Makes Perriello's switch on this look even worse, IMO.

Was Perriello pro-life?

Nah, this is just much ado about nothing by the usual Northam supporters.  Btw, can I just take a moment to note how utterly revolting it is that Northam's been making campaign stops at abortion facilities.  I mean, I'm pro-choice too, but let's not pretend abortions are something to be celebrated.  Are they sometimes a necessary evil?  Sure.  But let's not reduce such a serious issue to a photo-op.  I mean, it'd be nice if Northam could show a bit more tact here.

Haven't seen such a thing.

[heatcharger]

The Dem debate was interesting, I suppose. They mostly spoke parallel of each other with the exception of Perriello pressing Northam on whether Dominion Energy influenced his position on gas pipelines, which Northam more or less sidestepped with an answer on pragmatism.

I'm glad someone finally acknowledged the imbalance between what NOVA sends to Richmond and what it gets back in terms of tax dollars from the state government, and it happened to be Northam when talking about Fairfax's recent school budget crisis. To be fair to Perriello on education, he gave an excellent answer on why making community college and trade school tuition-free would be a boon economically.

As for who won, I'd say it was a wash.

[heatcharger]

I'd say the one exchange on guns was interesting. Perriello really tried to distance himself from that NRA endorsement, and even went so far as to attack Northam for being "the deciding vote" on gun safety.

Yeah, that was a little odd for Perriello. He's really reluctant to talk about his previously conservative record on guns and abortion.

Also, are there anymore Sanders-Northam supporters like you? I wonder because Northam has more support among the youngs than I expected. Perhaps that's because of his stronger ties to the Democratic machine in the state.

[heatcharger]

New timely Perriello ad

Pretty good ad.

[heatcharger]

Tommy P has an exchange with Richard Spencer on Twitter: https://twitter.com/tomperriello/status/863454033813438464

[heatcharger]

Jarrett endorses Perriello.

I'm quite curious to see if Obama actually does anything.

[heatcharger]

As if we needed more evidence that Northam is despicable and should have no place in the modern Democratic Party, this charming exchange from 2011 just came to light. The moderator asked Northam "Do you think that access to quality health care is a right?", to which Northam replied "I believe it's a privilege" and then went on to spew right-wing drivel that basically boiled down to "Poor people should just pull themselves up by their bootstraps if they want healthcare!"

What a disgrace.

Dont worry guys... if Dems just keep moving to the center, they'll win! Combine that with minority turnout...they'll never lose again!

Hmmm...where have we heard this from again?

Democrats, the kind that you don't like, control every statewide elected office.

[heatcharger]

...and a whopping 6 states have Democratic trifectas in the whole country.

Perhaps it would help if leftists decided to vote in off-year elections. I also thought we were talking about Virginia here.

[heatcharger]

But the Democrats have failed totally statewide in Virginia, don't control the Legislature & have not got a lot of stuff done - Nothing like the 15$ Wage will come until the Democrats take back the State Leg.

Democrats don't control the State House because it's one of the worst gerrymanders in the country. That's why it's very important that a Democrat win this year with large coattails, while also being successful enough to flip the State Senate in 2019 so that fair maps can be drawn after 2020.

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McAullife has pushed for the Medicaid expansion numerous times, but the 66-34 Republican HOD won't let it happen. In no way is this Democrats' fault.

It appears to be more bitter online, haven't really seen much animosity between the two candidates.

Honestly, it sounds like I'm getting bitter at this point, it's because people from out of state who don't know anything about VA state politics keep talking sh*t about Democrats who actually win. Otherwise, I really just wish for this primary to be over so I can support the winner more actively.

[heatcharger]

Long Term Plan for Virginia:

2017

1) Hold Governor, Lieutenant Governor and Attorney General
2) Win 7-10 House of Delegates Seats

2018

1) Knock Out Comstock
2) Kaine Holds His Senate Seat

2019

1) Win 2-3 Senate Seats, Take Control of Chamber (Guarantee at least fair redistricting next round)
2) Win 4-5 House of Delegate Seats, Get Close To Taking Control Or Totally Take It

2020

1) Democrat wins Virginia For President in route to White House
2) Warner Holds His Senate Seat

2021

1) Hold Governor, Lieutenant Governor and Attorney General
2) Win 4-5 House of Delegates Seats, Take Control of the Chamber

2022

1) Fair Redistricting
2) Ant-Voter Suppression Legislation: Move elections to even years, statewide offices and state senate races to Presidential years, automatic voter registration, vote by mail, repeal of voter ID, same day registration, massive expansion of non-excuse early voting, restoration of felon voting rights, statewide holiday for election day, expand voting hours to 10PM Eastern, reduce residency requirements
3) Amendment to allow Governors to run for reelection

Ambitious, but not out of the realm of possibility, although I'm a bit worried about what 2021 would look like under a Democratic president.

Also, why are you interested in expanding voting hours to 10 PM?

[heatcharger]

Northam quasi-internal from PPP has him up 45/35.

Which would be a 7 point uptick for Northam and a 10 point uptick for Perriello. Also:

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Making a county map prediction for this race is gonna be hard.

[heatcharger]

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I don't see how any Republican wins with those numbers.

It's actually 36/60 among registered voters. I hope this is part of a staggered release and that they polled the Dem primary and the GE.

[heatcharger]

WaPo did a series of video interviews with the five candidates:

Ralph Northam

Tom Perriello

Frank Wagner

Ed Gillespie

Crazy Corey Stewart

It's also in transcript form.

[heatcharger]

There is always 2021.

I wouldn't be surprised if Herring runs then. Virginia gubernatorial candidates seem to run on a "my turn"-type basis. I actually would have really liked it if Perriello had just run for Lt. Gov this cycle and moved up the ladder from there. Not to say I particularly like the way things operate in VA, but I do like Tom and I'd like to see him in office.

I like the system we have because it produced Warner and Kaine when it otherwise would not have.

As for Perriello, he belongs in Congress much more. He should run for whatever district contains Charlottesville after 2021 (which may be more winnable after redistricting), and then he can move up the Virginia totem pole if he so chooses.

[heatcharger]

Lol, Warner isn't retiring. Nobody wants that either.