VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)

[Virginiá]

This doesn't really matter largely because there are many Democrats and Democratic-leaners in the state who did the same thing.

It's quite interesting how the Bernie-wing has co-opted Perriello to be some sort of left-wing populist when he's really more like a 2008 Hillary Clinton, and an Obamaite to boot as well. I like him because of those traits, but he's spent a little too much time crafting an anti-Trump strategy rather than boasting his policies and credentials. He also seems liable to make a gaffe that Republicans would punish him for, which he has already done. That's why I'll probably vote for Northam.

Mostly agreed here. Personally, I'm not sure the choice really matters so long as both are Democrats willing to uphold most party principles. With the legislature currently being the VAGOP's last bastion of power, it means VA Democrats are mostly playing defense in their statewide positions. If anything, since a Governor can't run for 2 terms in a row, it might be better for liberals to field their candidate in 2021, after next redistricting when Democrats can likely expect to be much more competitive in the House of Delegates, assuming we win this election and block bad gerrymanders. Until then, however, the next Governor in Virginia, if a Democrat, will mostly spend his time blocking the GOP's agenda.

[Virginiá]

Some key points - He sounds very VERY progressive, guess Tom & Ralph are both swinging to more left than one another dragging Virginia to be more & more liberal

[post]

Shadows what was that post even about? You should include links to what you're reading and/or structure it better.

[Virginiá]

Am I the only one who wouldn't mind either Perriello or Northam being governor?

I don't see a contrast so compelling as to make me really want one over the other. But it's also more than that. We're not looking at a unified state govt here. The Senate will remain Republican at least until after the 2019 elections, and the House of Delegates has an entrenched & gerrymandered GOP majority that may persist well into the 2020s. I'm not sure there will be a ton of meaningful difference in terms of what actually gets done.

I might like Perriello more, but meh. I'm good with either just so long as they are there to force fair legislative/Congressional maps in 2021-2022.

[Virginiá]

13 Ways I Will Fight For Virginia’s Environment
- Tom Perriello, Contributor

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/13-ways-i-will-fight-for-virginias-environment_us_58fb76f9e4b0f02c3870eac4?s9g

[Virginiá]

Tom Perriello went to NBC & said the AHCA put state Republicans on notice & that it will put more state legislatures in play. He challenged Ed Gillespie to take the pledge to not take the waiver on pre-existing conditions. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jXps6qYSQtM

Come to think about it, the AHCA does give state-level Democrats a somewhat potent line of attack. Even if the bill ultimately doesn't end up passing (or is made substantially less horrifying), it is still an angle to hit them on for this year's limited elections.

[Virginiá]

In the end whoever wins, will probably beat the Republican & neither are bad. But the Democrats have failed totally statewide in Virginia, don't control the Legislature & have not got a lot of stuff done - Nothing like the 15$ Wage will come until the Democrats take back the State Leg.

I don't understand what this means. Democrats currently control all 3 statewide offices in Virginia, and even when state politics in VA finally flipped to Republicans in the 90s, Democrats still managed to continue winning the Governor's office more often than not, which conveniently put Republicans in a situation where it took them so long to uproot state Democrats that by the time they did, the state was already shifting back towards Democrats. This situation has meant that Virginia has never had to truly suffer through the GOP's incessant rightwards shift, as there has usually been a Democrat standing over them with a veto pen, keeping them in check.

[Virginiá]

I'd have thought Vogel would have dropped out after those dirty tricks late last year: https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/the-gop-race-for-lieutenant-governor-is-getting-ugly-in-virginia/2016/12/31/95c84ed0-cf84-11e6-a747-d03044780a02_story.html?utm_term=.e92b5d3d9b21

Granted, I haven't followed it since that article, so I don't know if it turned out to not be her, although the stupidity of this case would suggest it was indeed Vogel.

[Virginiá]

There is always 2021.

I wouldn't be surprised if Herring runs then. Virginia gubernatorial candidates seem to run on a "my turn"-type basis. I actually would have really liked it if Perriello had just run for Lt. Gov this cycle and moved up the ladder from there. Not to say I particularly like the way things operate in VA, but I do like Tom and I'd like to see him in office.

[Virginiá]

Doesn't a Vogel win in the Lt Gov GOP primary essentially guarantee Democrats hold that office? She was up to a lot of shady stuff in her race against Bryce, and iirc there is still a lawsuit on that. Seems ripe for dragging her down in a general election where the problems of the national GOP will be weighing her campaign down.

[Virginiá]

I find it hilarious that Gillespie got Gillespie'd!

Not to mention that Democratic Primary turnout was substantially higher than Republican primary turnout - which I'm not sure if that's a normal thing or not.

I tried looking that up too, but evidently in 2013 it was a convention for the GOP. Still, that kind of lopsidedness isn't good, especially since we already know a decent-sized enthusiasm gap has emerged between the two parties nationally, and that Trump is deeply unpopular in Virginia.

I'll wait until this fall to make a prediction but I think this race is very much Northam's to lose. The political environment is simply too ugly for Republicans both nationally and in Virginia, and it only seems to be getting worse.

[Virginiá]

Stewart acting like he won lol.

Is it just me or is he doing similar hand gestures as Trump too? I don't see the 'o' 👌 shape with his fingers but I do see lots of finger pointing up and other similar movements.

[Virginiá]

[...]

Colors are flipped

My take on this race. Gillespie wins narrowly due to performing well in DC suburbs and Richmond suburbs, while doing exponentially better in Western VA. Thanks for all the love guys.

1. A Republican president that is deeply unpopular in a leans Democratic state (mid-30s approvals in VA)
2. Said president is being investigated for possible obstruction of justice, and ties to Russia in terms of influencing the 2016 election
3. A hugely energized Democratic Party, with what seems to be a substantially unmotivated Republican base. I don't know how meaningful it is, but the GOP's primary vote count this week was horrific compared to Democrats
4. Since the 70s, the party in the White House has tended to lose the VA govs office, up until McAuliffe in 2013, which shouldn't be too surprising - there were unique circumstances, and the state had already begun shifting to Democrats, which gives them something of an edge.
5. An establishment GOP candidate that already lost a statewide race in 2014, and is now running again in what appears to be a very divided Republican electorate, which almost voted for a Confederacy-loving anti-establishment Trumpist. While Virginia as a whole leans towards certain kinds of candidates, it seems the VAGOP may have an additional enthusiasm issue if so many of their voters wanted someone else. Further, Northam seems like a good fit for Democrats, so that compounds the issue here.
6. This is a state where weakness among college graduates and upper-income voters will hurt more. Democrats have continued to make gains among white college graduates and upper-income voters, two groups that tend to have higher turnout during off years.
- When you compare the turnout of Post-grad and college grad voters in 2013 to 2016, you see that in 2013, these groups represented 7% more of VA's electorate. These are also the groups Trump is weighing Republicans down the most with.


... and you think the result will be a slim GOP win, which is about what you'd expect in a more neutral Virginia state election year? I'm just wondering if you've significantly minimized the effect Trump is having on GOP electoral prospects, or if you have some other kind of reasoning.

[Virginiá]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/obama-returning-to-campaign-trail-to-stump-for-northam-in-va-governors-race/2017/06/22/7d64456e-5793-11e7-ba90-f5875b7d1876_story.html

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We'll probably see a lot of big names criss-crossing Virginia this fall. It should be pretty easy for Obama too, since he still lives in DC.

Also, I thought this was pretty amusing coming from Gillespie's camp:

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A bit interesting for the people of a politician who failed to win his only race to be criticizing an actual elected official who has won numerous races, including his current statewide office like this.

[Virginiá]

Holcomb got 58% for governor, and Todd Young got 60% in Hamilton for the Senate race.  Susan Brooks got 61% for that House district.

To be fair, it's not that uncommon for presidential level defectors to vote with their old habits downballot, only to abandon those habits once the person they voted against wins the presidency. We saw a lot of that under Obama.

Not saying that will be the case here, but if it was, it wouldn't be uncommon. Long-term defections usually start at the top.

[Virginiá]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/gillespies-primary-scare-has-white-house-others-urging-trump-world-hires/2017/07/12/c9e4b8ac-5f3f-11e7-8adc-fea80e32bf47_story.html

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Shameless politics 101:

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[Virginiá]

*facepalm*

Looks like Stewart didn't need to win after all in order to help derail Republican prospects in this race. I get Gillespie probably felt like he was in a bind, but this was a bad decision. I'd also venture a guess that in the end, even if Gillespie did manage to pull out a win, it will be in spite of, not because of it.

[Virginiá]

Considering the way they're treating Guadagno, I guess the Romney McDaniel-led RNC would rather cut off their arm than extend it to people who were mean to Trump in last year's presidential primary.

Oh that's a good point. I know the RGA earmarked 5 million dollars to support, what they said at the time, "whoever" wins the nomination, so I imagine Gillespie wants to make sure he gets that. I'm not sure if Trump could yank that away out of spite, but he could have certainly tried.

It's funny, because for a lot of the later Obama years, I became embittered with a president I believed didn't care as much as he should have about the party, but now Republicans have a president who probably couldn't care less, even to the point of trashing their prospects in certain races just because he feels slighted. I don't know if we'll ever have a president that has put themselves above country and party as much as Trump.

[Virginiá]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/national-money-pours-into-virginia-governors-race/2017/07/25/7e6df1a0-7154-11e7-8839-ec48ec4cae25_story.html

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I have to admit I am disappointed this cycle had to turn into an expensive primary fight that resulted in the nominee being bled out funds-wise. I wish there could be some sort of agreement to limit expenditures and let the chips fall where they may. The next round of redistricting is too important to have the Democratic candidates dumping everything they have before the primary is even over.

[Virginiá]

I'm not sure if this will help Northam, Jay Nixon didn't fair too well following Ferguson. 

Not really the same type of situation. This was a clear attack by a white supremacist. Ferguson was a whole different ball game, not only in what people were protesting about but the effects of the protest itself. The narrative here definitely is not on the side of the white supremacists nor even Trump, insofar as he is relevant here.

Plus, I think it goes without saying, but Virginia is much different than Missouri. Namely, much more Democratic and thus likely to respond in different ways.

[Virginiá]

Yeah, Bannon was right on that one.

It's pretty interesting how basically the only people not seriously affected by this are the actual voters. I'm inclined to think that they believe it is not good, but not such a big deal, or that a lot of people do think it is a big deal, but almost all those people already disapprove of Trump. Currently leaning towards the latter.

I think what's left of Trump's base right now are those who will only turn on him if there is a recession, or some seriously bungled disaster, or something like that. Either that or attrition due to years of Trump's incompetence and failure to make good on his promises.

[Virginiá]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/democratic-megadonor-tom-steyer-to-spend-2-million-in-virginia-governors-race/2017/08/21/0f2486a2-81fc-11e7-902a-2a9f2d808496_story.html

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[Virginiá]

Also, can we please get Obama to campaign in NOVA, preferably when I have time to go?

Maybe they are waiting for an October bum rush?

Is Northam actually planning on going on air en masse, and also going negative at all? It really does make sense if he's waiting, since the limited effects ads have on voter choice tend to be short-lived, but it's also getting kind of close to where he'd want to start bombarding the airwaves.

[Virginiá]

A lot of people are talking out of their ass about this race. I think I'll trust like 50 polls that just came out within the last week over some rando on Twitter who only has 55 tweets. I guess certain people wish this race produced more drama, but that's not what you're gonna get with these two candidates.

To me, I think it really depends on who has the enthusiasm advantage here. Yes, these are kind of boring candidates (imo), and Northam doesn't really have a spark, but he's not that bad of a candidate. In the end, he's still been leading comfortably in pretty much every poll - polls that were accurate in 2016 when push came to shove. Combined with that, despite people constantly mentioning Gillespie 2014, this is not a favorable year for the GOP. Turnout dropped in 2014 below historical standards, and the wave environment helped him. If anyone would over-perform this year, it would probably be Northam, as we all know Democrats are very enthusiastic right now. The massive primary participation earlier this year is one more example (albeit maybe a weak one) of that.

I don't know, personally, I wouldn't be betting on the candidate who is losing in every poll in a year under a deeply unpopular Republican president - especially in a state that has a history of turning on the WH in-party.

[Virginiá]

Look at the 2 way race polls there are a couple that have her up 9 points then go on Wikipedia VA polls to see the 11 point lead for Hillary

You mean the VA polls taken around the time of the AH tape, or the August ones taken around the time of the Kahn drama? Why wouldn't the polls show a Clinton surge then? Do you think the race was exactly the same then as it was on election day? It's not like the election is the same every single day of the season.

Chances are, if the election was held during the AH tape controversy, she would have won by close to 10 points (or more) in Virginia.

[Virginiá]

Those polls don't count I'm talking 3 weeks out from the election.
Again the polls in 2013 and 2014 were wrong so why should I believe fake polls?

But that was still basically during the AH tape controversy (if you're talking about around Oct 18-20th) - it's not like that whole ordeal's effects on Trump's electoral support only lasted a few days or a week, and if you remember that particular point in October was filled to the brim with Trump scandals that just kept stacking up. It was a very active October. I'm not even sure exactly what poll you're talking about, either. Quinnipiac was the last one I see in RCP's 2-way polls showing double digits for her, which was taken Oct 20th - 26th. Having one poll you think was absurd at the time, and then using that to say all the polls were wrong despite them clearly not being wrong, is kind of ridiculous.

The RCP average for the 2-way and 4-way in Virginia 2016 was very accurate. It was only off by 0.1% in the 2-way. Just because it was off in 2014 and to a lesser degree, in 2013, doesn't mean it's always wrong. Think about this, if you're always going to call the polls "fake" just because they were wrong in 2014, you're predictions really become based on nothing more than what you want to happen. That is not really a good way to go about this.

But, you know, to each their own. If you think all the polls are always wrong, there is nothing really to debate here. Your views on this race are locked in, with no way to challenge them, absent Gillespie massively imploding beyond any doubt (and even what you consider 'beyond any doubt' is ambiguous)