VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Perriello all the way! Reminder: Northam was this close to flipping parties.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

A reminder to people calling Perriello "conservative" - he was in an R+5 district. I think standing for some of the things he stood for was pretty brave considering that.

Agreed

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Apparently Perriello has been out campaigning for candidates in tomorrow's special elections

Hmm and what has Northam been doing?

Whatever an establishment whore does in their spare time, I guess.

 Much edge!  So liberal!!!!  Very brave!

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Eh, nowhere near a bad enough remark to make me reconsider.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

My issue with Tom Perriello (besides his insincere vibe) is his opportunism -it's just too obvious.  I don't want to vote for someone so as to enable them to get a springboard for higher office.  Focus on being my governor, first and foremost.  

As opposed to the 99.99% of other people who run for elected office  This idea that Perriello is somehow more ambitious than most politicians and that if this is true it means he'll be a bad Governor is pretty silly, tbh.  I mean, does anyone here really think Northam didn't run for Lieutenant Governor simply to use the office as a springboard or that he wouldn't use being Governor of Virginia as a springboard to run for higher office if he really thought it'd make him a viable candidate for said office?  

For that matter, I find the claims that Perriello is a shrewd, careerist, insincere phony while Northam is some sort of ambition-free Virginia first hero to be silly too.  Perriello consistently made tough, high-profile, progressive votes in the house and he didn't run away from them when he ran for re-election.  If he were an insincere careerist hack, he wouldn't have done that given the district he represented.  That was a rare example of someone knowingly sacrificing (b/c let's be honest, no one expected to hear from him again after that) their political career to do what they thought was right time after time.  I'm not saying Northam's a DINO or even any worse than the average politician, but he doesn't have anywhere near as impressive a record in this regard and was even considered a potential party-switcher by the Republicans.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Am I the only one who wouldn't mind either Perriello or Northam being governor?

It's not that I'd mind Northam, so much as it is that I really like Perriello

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

NARAL endorsed Northam.

Makes Perriello's switch on this look even worse, IMO.

Was Perriello pro-life?

Nah, this is just much ado about nothing by the usual Northam supporters.  Btw, can I just take a moment to note how utterly revolting it is that Northam's been making campaign stops at abortion facilities.  I mean, I'm pro-choice too, but let's not pretend abortions are something to be celebrated.  Are they sometimes a necessary evil?  Sure.  But let's not reduce such a serious issue to a photo-op.  I mean, it'd be nice if Northam could show a bit more tact here.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

...and a whopping 6 states have Democratic trifectas in the whole country.

Perhaps it would help if leftists decided to vote in off-year elections. I also thought we were talking about Virginia here.

Hence my earlier point about why moving to the center depresses leftist turnout

Not in Virginia

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

...and a whopping 6 states have Democratic trifectas in the whole country.

Perhaps it would help if leftists decided to vote in off-year elections. I also thought we were talking about Virginia here.

Hence my earlier point about why moving to the center depresses leftist turnout

Not in Virginia

Says who? When Democrats say things like this, they are only parroting the Republican narrative that Democrats have to move to the center to win.

In the 2013 Virginia Gubernatorial election...turnout was only 43%...That's alot of unmotivated voters.

We picked up the Governorship, Lieutenant Governorship, and AG's office in 2013.  Sounds like a pretty good outcome to me   I generally want the most liberal Democrat who can win, that's part of why I'm a Perriello supporter.  However, the idea that the answer to the party's woes is some sort of tea-party-esque ideological purity crusade is ridiculous.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Monmouth will release a new poll of this race tomorrow.

Com'on Monmouth, show a Gillespie lead!

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=K5d5jxJ5vbM

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Monmouth will release a new poll of this race tomorrow.

Com'on Monmouth, show a Gillespie lead!

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=K5d5jxJ5vbM

Oh, please. I know you're disappointed that I don't support Northam, but if you seriously think a random YouTube video is going the change the way I think.....

I don't particularly care who you support since you're a Minnesotan and thus cannot vote in the race.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I want to ask, why exactly is Fairfax weaker than Northam? 

He's much more liberal (not just than Northam, but also more liberal than Kaine, T-Mac, Warner, and Herring; this isn't necessarily bad or anything, but it means he'll face a tougher race since he also doesn't have the appeal of someone like Perriello to non-NOVA, Republican-leaning parts of the state), lacks Northam's base in the normally Republican-leaning Virginia Beach/Eastern Shore area, lacks Northam's ability to potentially make inroads in the rural areas, and (this part is just my opinion) he has the lean-and-hungry look, so to speak.  The other thing is that (sadly) there's still a risk (especially outside of NOVA) of him facing a small Bradley Effect due to his skin color.  However, Fairfax and Perriello far more in tune with the future of the Virginia Democratic Party than Northam, but the state just isn't there quite yet (and I say that as someone who was an enthusiastic Perriello supporter in during the primary).  Folks like Herring, Northam, etc are the bridge between the past† and the future** as far as Virginia Democratic politicians go.  

What's interesting is that rather than adapting to changing times, the Virginia Republican Party (much like the Republican Party as a whole, but this is one of the best examples) seems to be doubling-down on a doomed (at least in the long-term) "old Virginia" strategy of scorched earth race-baiting and fire-and-brimstone religious demagoguery.  They insist on either running batsh!t insane lunatics (Corey Stewart, The Cooch, E.W. Jackson, etc), forcing otherwise electable candidates to reinvent themselves as far-right bomb-throwers (Gillespie, the VA GOP pushing that transvaginal ultrasound bill in 2012, etc), or simply boxing out electable candidates (Bill Bolling being the most infamous example).  This is going to be self-destructive in the long-term and I'm honestly not sure why they seem to be so stubborn about digging their own grave in Virginia statewide politics, but I digress.

*White, male, center-left politicians with solid socially liberal credentials who still have some real appeal to some of the swingier Republican-leaning parts of Virginia

†Moderate and center-right white Democrats like Mark Warner, pre-Senate Tim Kaine, Creigh Deeds, etc who bank on an unusually strong appeal in rural areas and try to win by appealing to Republican-leaning independents/less partisan Republicans with moderate or even center-right positions on issues like gun control, taxes, abortion, the death penalty, etc.  Even with Kaine (who was easily the most liberal Virginia Democrat to come anywhere near winning statewide when he was elected Governor), you had some remarkably right-wing social views by today's standards.  For example, Kaine not only supported a constitutional amendment to ban gay marriage, but even argued in 2005 that only married couples should be legally allowed to adopt children.  

**Younger, liberal/solidly center-left Democratic politicians with socially liberal views who (with occasional exceptions like Perriello) are based in NOVA and whose campaigns are tailored toward 1) the Democratic base and 2) suburban voters, are less concerned with keeping down Republican margins in rural Virginia, and don't make all that much of a play for crossover votes aside from more affluent, pro-choice folks who vote Republican because they want low taxes, but also care a great deal about issues like education and transportation.  

Anyway, that's my #HotTake on the state of Virginia politics; I didn't mean for it to be anywhere near this long  Our resident Virginians can obviously correct me if I'm wrong about any of this.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/kerpen/status/925914771949604864

The story that keeps on hurting.

You really need to stop looking for "worrying signs" of Northam blowing it on Twitter. It's not healthy

Each of these events in particular isn't going to destroy Northam. Its when they build up, controversy after controversy, national media latches on, narratives are formed, campaigns continue to stumble, than it worsens. Basically what happened to Hillary last year.

From my perch up in Ohio, I can confidently assure you the national media isn't saying boo about this race, much less some dumb ad.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Last 5 Polls (non-junk):

Suffolk: N+4
WaPo: N+5
BRD: N+6
Polling Company: G+2
Christopher Newport Univ. : N+7

Average: N +4.0 (Down from N+ 4.6 before Suffolk Poll)

Polling averages don’t work unless you include the good-faith outliers.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Last 5 Polls (non-junk):

Suffolk: N+4
WaPo: N+5
BRD: N+6
Polling Company: G+2
Christopher Newport Univ. : N+7

Average: N +4.0 (Down from N+ 4.6 before Suffolk Poll)

Polling averages don’t work unless you include the good-faith outliers.

If anything, Kellyanne Conway's poll should not be in any average, especially not in place of a non-partisan pollster.

Agreed.  I’d rather include Qunnipac and Fox News while removing Conway’s firm (a bad-faith outlier).  It’d be a far more accurate average.  As a rule, removing good-faith outliers defeats the whole idea of polling averages since the average is supposed to take into account that there will always be good-faith outliers.  Wulfric is basically unskewing polls to reflect what he thinks the outcome will be and the statistical science shows that doing so generally produces less accurate results, regardless of what the outcome is in this race.  It’d be like if you tossed every poll showing Trump ahead in Michigan in October 2016.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Now does everyone see why I have been saying Gillespie will win.
Northam is maybe one of the worst politicians right now in America not counting Hillary.
Northam probably would have lost if he hadn’t run against E.W Jackson.

Northam’s still gonna win by like 6-8 points.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Holy...

https://twitter.com/Alex_Roarty/status/926242913545269248


Disastrous.

Pretty sure the Sanders cultists want Northam to lose so they’ll have something new to whine about.

oh come on

Gillespie is everything i hate about politics. everything. Despite my obvious annoyance for Northam and his mediocre moderate hero politics I felt this close to donating $25 to his campaign.

Sorry, that was a dumb thing to say.  I’ve been having a rough day and this mess just caused me to lash out a little.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

With Roanoke:

Roanoke - Tie
Optimus - N + 1.5
Rasmussen - Tie
Polling Company - G+2
Suffolk - N+4

Average - Northam +0.7

Still time for the average to turn around, but Gillespie may have this. The late trend is certainly in his favor.

Im gonna slam my head into a desk.

Don't. Virginia will be fine regardless of who wins.

No, I mean I'm all for averaging out polls but we have had 4 questionable polls in a row. Your average is one decent pollster and four iffy pollsters.

2016 showed us that calling polls we don't like junk doesn't work. *snip*

You mean like Qunnipac?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

With Roanoke:

Roanoke - Tie
Optimus - N + 1.5
Rasmussen - Tie
Polling Company - G+2
Suffolk - N+4

Average - Northam +0.7

Still time for the average to turn around, but Gillespie may have this. The late trend is certainly in his favor.

Im gonna slam my head into a desk.

Don't. Virginia will be fine regardless of who wins.

No, I mean I'm all for averaging out polls but we have had 4 questionable polls in a row. Your average is one decent pollster and four iffy pollsters.

2016 showed us that calling polls we don't like junk doesn't work. *snip*

You mean like Qunnipac?

Did you even read the clarifying sentence I put after that:

2016 showed us that calling polls we don't like junk doesn't work. If something shows a ridiculously impractical result like Hampton did that's one thing, but a Tie or G+2 is not an unrealistic result.

Quinnipiac falls into the same "ridiculously impractical" category Hampton does.

Excluding such polls is the antithesis of how polling averages are supposed to work.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Average after Trafalgar release:

Trafalgar : N+1
Gravis: N+5
Roanoke: Tie
Optimus: N+1.5
Rasmussen: Tie

Average: N + 1.5

Trafalgar is literally a Republican polling firm.