VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Justin Fairfax and Ralph Northam officially have my endorsement now. I want Bryce Reeves and Corey Stewart to win their primaries though. I think they are the weakest in a general. But omg look at Corey Stewart the dark horse go!

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

OMG go team Corey! I sooo want him to be yalls nominee!

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Gillespie is pulling away with Fairfax. I think he eeks it out, probably with a recount or two.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

It's over. Everyone is calling it for Gillespie.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Stewart did much better in Fairfax than he should have. I don't see how Gillespie wins in November.

He probably won't. Virginia is not purple like the GOP would have you believe. It is a purplish blue/indigo.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Stewart did much better in Fairfax than he should have. I don't see how Gillespie wins in November.

He probably won't. Virginia is not purple like the GOP would have you believe. It is a purplish blue/indigo.

MA is deep blue and they have a GOP governor.  Not saying Ed will win, but it's not impossible.

It is definitely not impossible, but for sure unlikely. Governor's race are less partisan, true, but if Gillespie could not win in a less diverse VA 4 years ago, and also in a national Red wave, his chances are slim now, especially with his reputation of being a loser, this pathetic primary showing, and lack of enthusiasm.

Edit 1: sorry meant 3 years ago.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

This one should be close.

It could, but should not be. But seriously, I know the VA GOP is getting weaker and weaker, especially statewide, but seriously, Gillespie? Is that sad loser really the best yall could do?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Gillespie definitely won.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Gillespie definitely won.

I hate to say it but I think your right.

Northam went on a few cringe worthy tangents, such as flipping subjects and criticizing the moderator, and also spoke in vague and hollow terms, in both summaries and rebuttals, while Gillespie utilized statistics very effectively. However, if I was a resident of Virginia, this debate would not impact my vote very much. But, I used to hate Gillespie, but after I watched the debate, I only dislike him now instead, something about the guy, I don't know... still definitely rooting for Northam though, just less excitedly than before.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Okay I just watched the debate and I'll definitely say Gillespie did a good job. Let's not blow the importance of this out of proportion though; only 3% in that Monmouth poll said they watched it, which is not surprising considering it's July.

Northam is letting Gillespie outflank him on economics, which is very disappointing considering how well McAuliffe has done bringing jobs through trade missions and such. Northam needs to run on being a second-term of McAuliffe IMO.

I also laughed when Gillespie suggested a transportation lockbox, which is not necessarily a bad idea and I want to hear more about it. Northam needs to actually start putting up more concrete plans as well.

Agreed, he needs to stop throwing around annoying narratives and get on track with stats!

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Hopefully these people who were killed and injured in the tragic events in Charlottesville Virginia did not die and get hurt in vain. Hopefully their legacy will be boosting Northam in the polls, while bringing down Gillespie.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Hopefully these people who were killed and injured in the tragic events in Charlottesville Virginia did not die and get hurt in vain. Hopefully their legacy will be boosting Northam in the polls, while bringing down Gillespie.

Seriously?  People died and you hope that their deaths boost someone's polling numbers?!

Sometimes good things come from tragic events.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Yeah, after Charlottesville, Gillespie is toast.

Woot woot!

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

not even a majority of black voters support getting rid of Confederate monuments.
Tell me again why Democrats see pushing this as a political winner?

Yeah, Bannon was right on that one.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I don't think there'll be much drama in this race on election night...

I think it will be fairly close with Northam winning later into the night.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I'm feeling better now ever since Gillespie has started to move right. I think this could sink him in nova, and cause minimal change in rural areas. Back to Lean D.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Gillespie probably has the same chance of winning this race as Doug Jones in AL. Right now I think this race will be relatively close (with Northam still winning, obviously), but I wouldn't be surprised if Gillespie lost by 7-9 or so on election day.

IMO Fairfax and Herring are going to win fairly easily, even if Gillespie somehow wins the gubernatorial race by <0.5.

Vogel is a strong candidate, I actually think she has the highest chance of winning out of the three GOPer's on the statewide ticket.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Now Lean D. Used to be Tilt D, but now in the final stretch, Northam is starting to bring home the bacon, and get a lot of additional resources. People keep whining about how the polling was so viked up in several states throughout the country, and especially pointing to 2016, but if they actually bothered to look at the 2016 polls for Virginia, they would see that they were pretty on point, and like at least half the pollsters are still the same. 2014 was pretty wrong, but at least they still predicted the winner correctly (albeit barely), and really improved their accuracy in 2016. Plus, these polls really do pass the common sense test, and pretty much backup what most people are thinking, Lean D.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Between Trump's petulance and the Charlottesville protests/attack, which had the name 'unite the right' I believe the fate of Republicans was sealed (for this fall) before the first fall ad buy was paid for. Since Hillary was able to win by over 5% in Virginia last year, and since Dems had strong primary turnout, about 50% more D voters than R's (which was before Charlottesville) I'm gonna go ahead and say Strong D. VA Dems should easily sweep all three races. Trump fatigue and Dem motivation should create a situation where Dems finish even stronger than their respective primary percentages. All races will be won by 6-8% each. Having said all of this, Gillespie is still someone to watch moving forward. He would be the best candidate (by far---lol at you Corey Stewart) moving forward for the US Senate race against Kaine next year.

Kaine is mega safe, imo.

I'd agree with this if Stewart is the Republican nominee. Not as confident if it's Gillespie.

Gillespie should will probably be finally dealt with in the coming weeks when he loses a second time.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I used to think Gillespie was OK, but he has shown his real self over the past couple of months. He is so fake, and "fakely moderate" that it is nearly unbearable for me to even hear him anymore. I think people, and especially moderates in NOVA, are starting to see through him. That's probably why Northam is pulling ahead now. That, and a lot of undecideds coming to Northam, and big $$$ for him. I can't wait for this little sh!t to get defeated again next month.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Ed Shillespie. Only 32 more days until he gets flushed.

mod note (10/06/2017): language

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

United Mine Workers of America has endorsed... Ralph Northam.

They withheld an endorsement in the 2012 and 2016 presidential races.

Yes! That's my boy Northam!

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Just voted like an hour ago:



I voted for Northam, Fairfax, and Herring for all roughly the same reasons. I strongly approve of how Governor McAuliffe is handling his job, and I would like to see 4 more years of his policies. Seeing how democracy has been deteriorated in a similar state, NC, under a unified GOP government also makes it very hard for me to support any statewide Republicans.

I have to give credit to Jim LeMunyon for making me actually consider my HD-67 vote. He's decent for a Republican, and I'd even say he's excellent on transportation issues, which are of utmost importance for me. Too bad for him that he's a vote to enable the garbage VA GOP HoD, which is totally unacceptable. I also trust that Delaney will be solid on transportation as well. Plus she advocates for the proliferation of 3D-printers, so I had no qualms voting for her.

Thank you for your vote, you did good my friend!

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

If it works, it works. But I'm worried "child molesters" is too much of a shock for people to believe, and thus will actually hurt Gillespie.

ALL ATLAS MEMBERS ARE DUTY AND HONOR BOUND TO START "WULFRIC SUPPORTS CHILD MOLESTERS" THREADS

Whatever. If Northam ran an ad calling Gllespie a rapist none of you would criticize it.

Just because you let your widdle feeling weelings get hurtsies so easily, does not make throwing around trash the correct response . Yes I know I'm being a hypocrite here. Fwiw, as a strong dem, I would not support a candidate (including Northam) if they did that. But, the odds are quite low that this happens, none the less, I don't condone it.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Early vote map:



Green: Early vote increase today is greater than the statewide increase of 150% compared to 2013
Yellow: Early vote increase today is higher than it was in 2013, but less than the statewide increase of 150%
Red: Early vote is below where it was today in 2013
Grey: No data

Source

A lot of the green is in prime Northam territory, although there's a couple of red areas sprinkled in there.

There's also plenty of green in the exurbs, but when you combine the high turnout in Hampton Roads with the lower EV turnout in SW VA, this looks encouraging for Northam, if conclusions can be drawn from it.

This is a good map for Northam, reassuring.