VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)

[PragmaticPopulist]

32% approval from Republicans seems pretty high for such a partisan era. 55% approval from Non-college white voters is also surprisingly good for a Democrat right now.

[PragmaticPopulist]

32% approval from Republicans seems pretty high for such a partisan era. 55% approval from Non-college white voters is also surprisingly good for a Democrat right now.

There are still a fair amount of people in Southwest VA who still think he's 'one of the good ones', and that's because he campaigned there a lot in his '96 Senate campaign and then his following gubernatorial run. It's why he won in 2001 and in 2008 by such a landslide. Unfortunately, in the 2014 political environment, the hatred of Obama combined with Warner's sleepy campaign, they weren't about to vote for him again.

Always wondered why Warner won in such a landslide in 2008, even though McCain won the 9th district with 59% of the vote, and McCain was also the first Republican since 1972 to win Buchanan and Dickenson counties. If Periello's the nominee, do you think he would at least slightly over-perform a typical Democrat in VA-09 (SW VA) or even VA-06 (Shenandoah Valley/Piedmont)?

[PragmaticPopulist]

It was heart-wrenching to watch this. The D side wasn't all that surprising; polls had anything from Northam having a wide lead to Periello having a narrow lead. It was the R side that really got me hyperventilating. I wonder if most of the undecideds went to Stewart.

Due to a seemingly divided GOP and the national environment, I'm gonna have to rate it leans D.

What I'm gonna be watching closely is how well Northam does in the tidewater region in November. He did do notably well here for a Democrat in the 2013 LG general. I can see him winning VA-02, as well as at least keeping the margin in VA-01 in mid single-digits.

I'm also keeping an eye on southside and parts of the Shenandoah Valley, namely Alleghany County, which regularly give GOP presidential candidates solid wins, but seems to be competitive in statewide elections.

As for Gillespie, I think this is a chance for Rs to possibly make up lost ground with more moderate suburban voters, but it could also be an opportunity for Democrats to make up lost ground with rural voters.

[PragmaticPopulist]

The interwebs Bernie Bros (I bet almost none are in Virginia) are already railing against the Northam win and how they won't support a centrist. Gillespie has to love their support!

Northam is a much better candidate then Clinton was. No baggage, and actually has a clear message.

[PragmaticPopulist]

For what it's worth, here's a map of what party got more votes in every county:



Higher D turnout obviously tilted the scale in some counties, but Perriello really got a boost in his former district of VA-05. Northam also got a whopping 91.2% in Northampton County (his place of birth) and 89.1 in neighboring Accomack County

Also, one thing I like to check is the precinct at Tangier Island in Accomack County. I won't get into details about what's special about it here, but for anyone familiar with it, Corey Stewart won it with 49 votes.

[PragmaticPopulist]

For what it's worth, here's a map of what party got more votes in every county:

Thanks. This would be an excellent GE map, especially for Dem HoD candidates.

I was thinking that as I made it. Periello really did turn back the clock some to make it look more like the results of an election from the 1990s.

[PragmaticPopulist]

For what it's worth, here's a map of what party got more votes in every county:



Higher D turnout obviously tilted the scale in some counties, but Perriello really got a boost in his former district of VA-05. Northam also got a whopping 91.2% in Northampton County (his place of birth) and 89.1 in neighboring Accomack County

Also, one thing I like to check is the precinct at Tangier Island in Accomack County. I won't get into details about what's special about it here, but for anyone familiar with it, Corey Stewart won it with 49 votes.

What's that in popular vote? Looking at similar maps and comparing them, I'd say between 59-60% D and 41-40% R, leaning more towards like 59.75%-40.25%.

Just did the math, and you're right. I got 59.7% - 40.3%.

[PragmaticPopulist]

It probably means he will run for office in the future and keep being a thorn in the side of Virginia Republicans.

At least Republicans now know to take him seriously. He could throw an election to a Democrat.

[PragmaticPopulist]

Rockbridge Co. isn't usually a D heavy county, hasn't been since maybe the '90's. Kinda strange to see this happen.

Democrats got only 39 more votes there than Republicans, so I kinda doubt Northam will win it in November. Northam narrowly won it though in the 2013 Lieutenant Governor election.

[PragmaticPopulist]

This is better for Ds than I thought. 59.3% D turnout in VA-05 seems a bit high to be just because of Periello.

^ I couldn't believe Stewart carried VA-10!

He did remarkably well in Loudoun, which is kinda like Fairfax, but a bit more conservative. IDK how well he did in the Fairfax portion though. I'd assume he was crushed there, but I could be wrong.

[PragmaticPopulist]

This is better for Ds than I thought. 59.3% D turnout in VA-05 seems a bit high to be just because of Periello.

^ I couldn't believe Stewart carried VA-10!

He did remarkably well in Loudoun, which is kinda like Fairfax, but a bit more conservative. IDK how well he did in the Fairfax portion though. I'd assume he was crushed there, but I could be wrong.

244 precincts of 244 (100.00%) reporting
Candidate   Votes   Percent
Edward W. "Ed" Gillespie
Republican   18,046   47.87%
Corey A. Stewart
Republican   14,712   39.03%
Frank W. Wagner
Republican   4,940   13.10%

http://results.elections.virginia.gov/vaelections/2017%20June%20Republican%20Primary/Site/Locality/FAIRFAX%20COUNTY/Index.html

I don't know which Ffx precincts fit into the 10th but here is the link to results by precinct http://results.elections.virginia.gov/vaelections/2017%20June%20Republican%20Primary/Site/Locality/FAIRFAX%20COUNTY/Governor.html

I mean just the Fairfax portion of VA-10. Not the entire county.

[PragmaticPopulist]

Kind of the same situation California Republicans are in with their party being dominated by hardline conservatives in a state that doesn't match that ideology at all.

If only the legislature had listened to Bob McDonnell and moderated, they may have a chance of being competitive. Looks like they figure they have to max-out the vote share in SW VA (which is declining in population), but are alienating voters in high-population areas. It's ironic, since back in the day, the best region for the Democrats was SW VA, while Republicans did best in NOVA and Richmond's suburbs.

[PragmaticPopulist]

Sorry, I meant "shift" as in become reliable areas of support.  Trump was the worst fit imaginable, and he still won with 57% in Hamilton County (and more importantly, beat Hillary by 20 points ... Johnson got almost 6%).  Holcomb got 58% for governor, and Todd Young got 60% in Hamilton for the Senate race.  Susan Brooks got 61% for that House district.  Obviously, Trump provided a shift toward the Democrats, but it was from iron clad support to merely blowout support, and that is not reason to believe these voters are some new base for future Democrats.  And even if these areas DO eventually go Democratic, it will likely be because the areas changed significantly either demographically or culturally (i.e., become older suburbs with a more urban and less traditionally conservative character).

Alright, but Trump will be on the ballot once again in three years, and I don't have much reason to believe someone in a completely different mold will be the Republican nominee in 2024, 2028, and maybe beyond. That's why I, among many, think the trends of the 2016 election will continue even as exceptions to them arise.

Just face it, the Trump brand has encapsulated the GOP in a way that's inescapable -- just look at the ridiculous lengths the party will go to defend him on things they trashed him on as a primary candidate, and they do it because the party wants that:



Trump is unquestionably the face of the Republican Party.

You never know. Whenever this kind of topic comes up, I think back to what happened with George H.W. Bush. While it's not a perfect comparison, he did disappoint the GOP base at the time, and went down in flames in 1992, and as a result, the Republicans leadership convinced itself it needed to go back to a more Reaganesque platform. They did do that, but it evolved into a Reagan-on-steroids platform.

Anyway, getting back to the topic, the Indianapolis suburbs could, in the long term, start flipping, just like the once Rock-ribbed Republican Richmond suburbs are becoming swing areas now.

[PragmaticPopulist]

Shameless politics 101:

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Virginia Republicans are so cute. That's actually a step down from the 15 debates Cooch proposed in 2013.

I remember reading somewhere that Gillespie mainly wanted to debate Northam in SW VA coal country so he could hit him over the "war on coal". When will the VA GOP learn that that's not how you win statewide in VA these days. Trump probably maxed out the GOP vote share in SW VA already, and still lost statewide by 5% because of his toxicity in NOVA.

[PragmaticPopulist]

Shameless politics 101:

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Virginia Republicans are so cute. That's actually a step down from the 15 debates Cooch proposed in 2013.

I remember reading somewhere that Gillespie mainly wanted to debate Northam in SW VA coal country so he could hit him over the "war on coal". When will the VA GOP learn that that's not how you win statewide in VA these days. Trump probably maxed out the GOP vote share in SW VA already, and still lost statewide by 5% because of his toxicity in NOVA.

Trump did comically worse in NOVA even for a republican. Gillespie will do far better there. Question is if he can match what he did there in 2014, which would be enough to win if he matches Trump in SW VA and matches Romney elsewhere.

Thing is, I doubt Gillespie will match Trump' showing in SW VA. Gillespie seems like a poor cultural fit for the area. I'm actually expecting Northam to overperform a bit in SW VA because of his rural background.

[PragmaticPopulist]

Great GE ad from Northam really shows the contrast between the candidates Army vet/Doctor vs. career lobbyist/party insider.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tq8guaC8dcI

I think this is the right message that Northam needs to be going for. He should definitely keep portraying himself as an outside and really hammer Ed's career in D.C.

Which is why I think Gillespie will under perform in SW VA and the Shenandoah Valley. Gillespie immediately comes off as a DC insider.

[PragmaticPopulist]

I'm not sure if this will help Northam, Jay Nixon didn't fair too well following Ferguson. 

Not really the same type of situation. This was a clear attack by a white supremacist. Ferguson was a whole different ball game, not only in what people were protesting about but the effects of the protest itself. The narrative here definitely is not on the side of the white supremacists nor even Trump, insofar as he is relevant here.

Plus, I think it goes without saying, but Virginia is much different than Missouri. Namely, much more Democratic and thus likely to respond in different ways.

Yeah. I don't think this will have much of an effect on the race. If it somehow hurts McCauliffe's approval ratings, it could hurt Northam, but I don't see what McCauliffe did that would've caused his approval ratings to drop, except railing against Neo-Nazis.

[PragmaticPopulist]

Northam's using this tweet as a fundraising tool.

[PragmaticPopulist]

United Mine Workers of America has endorsed... Ralph Northam.

They withheld an endorsement in the 2012 and 2016 presidential races.

Big momentum heading into the last inches of the race.

That's a bit of a surprise. All I've been hearing about Northam lately is that he's taking the usual D strategy of focusing on the urban crescent and ignoring the rest. The endorsement might help keep Gillespie's margins down in the coal counties of SW VA.

[PragmaticPopulist]

I'm not sure if anyone here is familiar with McLean, but I go there every weekend, and all I see in the outskirts of the downtown area (the VA-10 portion of McLean) are Gillespie/Adams signs, and back during the presidential election, I saw no Trump signs there. I know yard signs aren't good indicators, but it tells me that these upscale suburban voters are differentiating Gillespie from Trump.

I'm not that familiar with the political geography of Fairfax County, so maybe that's just a traditionally GOP area.