VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Doesn't a Vogel win in the Lt Gov GOP primary essentially guarantee Democrats hold that office? She was up to a lot of shady stuff in her race against Bryce, and iirc there is still a lawsuit on that. Seems ripe for dragging her down in a general election where the problems of the national GOP will be weighing her campaign down.

Vogel and Bryce were going after each other with accusations. I don't believe Vogel is any worse off on this front than Bryce would be, though perhaps that's not saying much.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Wasserman says big reason for Northam easy win are AA voters

Less than one might expect, if the map is anything to go by.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Who would have thought the most interesting primaries where on the R's side? That East-West divide is seriously bad it playing out in all races.

The proposed gas pipelines, among other things, is a contributor (Stewart and Perriello are both opposed)

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Vogel was someone with a moderate record in the legislature who decided to run as a hardcore tea partier. 

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Who did blacks support in the dem primary?

The vote was correlated much more with regional geography than with race, but the clear majority of blacks are in areas that went for Northam.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Buena Vista went for Northam just as I thought.

Unlikely, but it'd be hilarious if Lynchburg voted for Perriello right after this. No idea when that will dump.

Methinks for that city:

Dems: Northam, Fairfax
GOP: Gillespie, Vogel

Holy s&^!

Wow, Lynchburg was less establishment than usual and to the left of Buena Vista at that. I know the city went significantly leftwards towards Hillary this time around, but this is crazy.

The land of Jerry Falwell's institution, one of the last holdouts for the state during The Civil War....and it votes decidedly to the left of Buena Vista AND in the case of the Governor, the college town of Lexington....this, this is telling.

and nearly 2/3 of Lynchburg voters today voted in the GOP primary.

perhaps more to the point, this is right outside the boundaries of his former district.  People know about him there and they believed he would represent their interests.  Not everything is about left vs right.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Spectacular work as always, Miles!

So the word on Dark Atlas is that Wagner basically ran as a moderate on economic issues.  I wonder how much support that bled from Gillespie.  I didn't follow his campaign at all but I didn't see any signs of his and I don't think he ran a single ad - and this is his home city.

Eyeballing that map, it appears Stewart won my precinct.

Wagner's focus was on investment in economic development rather than Gillespie's very original and thoughtful focus on tax cuts or Stewart's identity politics. Probably "took" net a significant amount from Gillespie, though certainly there were some Trump (primary) /Wagner voters, at least in Hampton Roads. He didn't have the funds for tv ads.  He ran them on talk radio though. 

Miles, do you have larger versions of those beautiful maps?

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Here are some comparison maps, which are as interesting for their differences as their similarities:



Perriello and Northam each got 91% in their best counties (Nelson and Northampton, respectively)

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Don't read too much into these party primary comparison figures. People vote for the race they believe is competitive - which in this case ironically meant they helped the other race be more competitive instead. 

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Will suburban white Virginia women vote for Gillespie or Northam?

Yes.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Who is voting on pipelines? This is a ridiculous wedge issue..

Yeah those stupid people voting on an issue related to energy, jobs, tourism, the environment, and property rights lol

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Okay I just watched the debate and I'll definitely say Gillespie did a good job. Let's not blow the importance of this out of proportion though; only 3% in that Monmouth poll said they watched it, which is not surprising considering it's July.

I don't even know if it was on tv here.  If it was on the pbs station in primetime I would have noticed it.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Great point.

Except that it isn't accurate ?

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

I used to think Gillespie was OK, but he has shown his real self over the past couple of months. He is so fake, and "fakely moderate" that it is nearly unbearable for me to even hear him anymore. I think people, and especially moderates in NOVA, are starting to see through him. That's probably why Northam is pulling ahead now. That, and a lot of undecideds coming to Northam, and big $$$ for him. I can't wait for this little sh!t to get defeated again next month.

Gillespie's real self?  been MIA for a long time.  It's embarrising.  Today in my mailbox I got a flyer from him talking about the evils of "restoring rights of violent criminals"  and somehow ex-felons voting is "dangerous." lol   It's pure cynical capitualtion to this weird idea he seems to have that a Trump/Stewart approach will win him the governorship, no way he believes this stuff he's putting out there.
I think he's managed to get me to vote libertarian again this time.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Wtf why would he focus on abortion over something like education or transportation in NOVA

because it's Ralph Northam. This issue is his baby, so to speak.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Wtf why would he focus on abortion over something like education or transportation in NOVA

because it's Ralph Northam. This issue is his Tom Perez's baby, so to speak.

FTFY

No, now it makes literally zero sense.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Gillespie is now running ads on radio stations like 100.3 Big 100 a classic rock station out of MD that has reach in DC and NoVA all the way down to Fredericksburg and below. I heard it this morning driving to work and it went something like "Northam believes that $17,000 is rich and that's why he's never voted for any tax cut. I'm Ed Gillespie and I believe that tax cuts will grow Virginia's economy and will provide more money for education and give our teachers a needed pay raise."

He is pivoting to the center to hook NoVA voters. I don't think many will switch their votes based off of this alone, but it will stick in the minds of many undecideds, especially if they vote on economics. Gillespie is trying his best to make Ralph Northam look like a tax increase lover and friend of gangs. It's shameful but it might stick.

He botched this campaign, it seems, by focusing on Confederate statues and illegal immigration much more than necessary in a Virginia election.

I'd argue his move back to the center is really the problem here.

There's a reason Da' C*&ch kept it close as he did against T-Mac, who wasn't asleep at the wheel like Warner was back in 2014.

But yeah, the muddled mess means now he's not gonna impress either side.

Cooch was a true believer with a record that matched his rhetoric and didn't suddenly discover the right-wing of his party after almost losing a primary.   And T-Mac was widely disliked.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Gillespie called northern virginia "enemy territory" at a fundraiser with audio

https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=youtu.be&v=2sC0GFSEnqs&app=desktop

Kevin Robillard ✔ @PoliticoKevin
.@American_Bridge is out with audio of Ed Gillespie referring to Northern Virginia has “enemy territory.” https://m.youtube.com/watch?feature=youtu.be&v=2sC0GFSEnqs … #VaGov

where in the recording is it? I didn't hear it.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Last thing I heard about the early vote was that black turnout was down 1.2% over 2013.

That sounds completely made up.  No way to make a determination on racial turnout within a few points MoE much less to decimal points.  However the increase in turnout seems to be at least as large in areas with significant black population as with the state as a whole.