VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)

[Miles]

I've always liked Perriello, but I'll be volunteering for Northam. 

[Miles]

NARAL endorsed Northam.

Makes Perriello's switch on this look even worse, IMO.

[Miles]

Went to a Perriello town hall tonight.

I told him I was disappointed with his flip on the Stupak Amendment. I was hoping for a Time Kaine type "well, I'm personally, pro-life, but..." response. But he actually told me he wants a state constitutional amendment protecting access to abortion. I don't think Northam has even gone that far left.

He also had LuAnn Bennett introduce him; her campaign last year basically emphasized all the issue I disagree with the party on. She said she's not running again.

He keeps talking about nationalizing the race, which I don't like. Seeing nationalization used against other Democrats in the south during the Obama era, I want local races to be more nuanced than that.

Overall, I'm still leaning towards Northam.

And a pic:

[Miles]

^ Thanks!!

[Miles]

^ Absentee voting isn't a big thing in VA, but here's what the state has:

- Democratic Primary

- Republican Primary

[Miles]

Perriello should run for Warner's seat if he retires (hopefully) in 2020.

Warner'll only be 65 in 2020. He's not going anywhere unless he gives up the seat to run for POTUS.

Assuming he loses the in primary (or in the general), his best bet might be to carpetbag into one of the NOVA districts.  VA-05 isn't happening again for Democrats unless they control redistricting outright, and the state would have to do a full Arkansas 2012 for that to happen by 2021.  Connolly and Beyer in VA-11 and VA-08 are both older than Warner and if Comstock holds on next year (unlikely but far from impossible), he could run for VA-10 in 2020.  Any of those CDs would be safe for him for a long time and he is young enough to eventually be Speaker of the House if he wants to.

Similarly, if Northam loses the primary, he is the best possible candidate for VA-02 in 2018.  VA Dems should draft him into it right away.

Perriello already lives in NOVA now, FWIW. It's transient enough that he could easily overcome carpetbagging.

[Miles]

[Miles]

Spectacular work as always, Miles!

So the word on Dark Atlas is that Wagner basically ran as a moderate on economic issues.  I wonder how much support that bled from Gillespie.  I didn't follow his campaign at all but I didn't see any signs of his and I don't think he ran a single ad - and this is his home city.

Eyeballing that map, it appears Stewart won my precinct.

Wagner's focus was on investment in economic development rather than Gillespie's very original and thoughtful focus on tax cuts or Stewart's identity politics. Probably "took" net a significant amount from Gillespie, though certainly there were some Trump (primary) /Wagner voters, at least in Hampton Roads. He didn't have the funds for tv ads.  He ran them on talk radio though. 

Miles, do you have larger versions of those beautiful maps?

I need to make some slight changes to those, but I'll post them again (with larger versions) when I  do.

[Miles]

Also, I ran the CD breakdowns:







Excuse the conventional colors on this one:

[Miles]

^ I couldn't believe Stewart carried VA-10!

[Miles]

Miles, do you have larger versions of those beautiful maps?

DEMOCRATIC GOVERNOR
REPUBLICAN GOVERNOR
DEMOCRATIC LT GOV
REPUBLICAN LT GOV
PARTY CHOICE

Roanoke City did a fair bit of re-precincting, so the precincts there are all colored by the municipal vote.

[Miles]

Thing is, I doubt Gillespie will match Trump' showing in SW VA. Gillespie seems like a poor cultural fit for the area. I'm actually expecting Northam to overperform a bit in SW VA because of his rural background.

Northam is much more likely to overperform relative to the average Democrat in the rural Chesapeake Bay area rather than SW VA. There were some parts in the Southwest where E.W. Jackson actually did better than Eric Bolling, so it's safe to say that region is completely gone.

*Bill Bolling

[Miles]

Northam raises $2M, has almost as much on hand.

[Miles]

^ Henry Howell in 1977.