VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)

[Gass3268]

Northam has never lost an election and he was elected statewide with 55% of the vote, the highest of any Democrat in 2013. His military and medical background is also a huge plus in Virginia especially in the Hampton Roads area. I don't really see how Perriello is remotely a stronger candidate than Northam.

It helped he ran against E.W. Jackson.

[Gass3268]

Endorsing Perriello, but will be very happy with Northam if he wins, which I am expecting he will.

[Gass3268]

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[Gass3268]

Northam got the endorsement of NARAL

[Gass3268]

Team Obama endorses Tom Perriello en mass

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[Gass3268]

The main distinction here appears to be folks inside Virginia (Kaine, Warner, McAuliffe) are backing Northman and folks outside Virginia (Team Obama and Team Sanders) are backing Perriello.

[Gass3268]

Bernie Sanders endorses Perriello

[Gass3268]

It may be another proxy battle between Sanders and Clinton. Reliving the 2016 Democratic presidential primaries.

Tom Perriello has some good ideas, but he may be too anti-gun and anti-military to win in Virginia. The Democratic primary is Lean Northam at this point.

We'll see. I think Northam can do well in the rural areas of Virginia, but Perriello could do well with the anti-gun NOVA suburbanites that have flooded Virginia over the past couple of years.

However, Ed Gillespie probably wants Perriello as the Democratic opponent in this open seat. RGA would pour money into this race, and yes, Republicans can still win Virginia despite it being an off-year in Trump/Pence-era politics.

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/04/bernie-sanders-endorses-tom-perriello-236858

Podesta endorsing Perriello makes it impossible for this to become a Sanders/Clinton proxy battle.

[Gass3268]

Perriello raised 2.2 million dollars MORE than Northman in Q1. I'll post a link once I'm back home.

[Gass3268]

I read that article as "Tom Perriello (whom I profiled last month) had brought in $2.2 million more than his primary opponent."

My bad.

[Gass3268]

PCCC, Khizr and Ghazala Khan endorse Perriello

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[Gass3268]

Basically the same as heatcharger^^^

I'd say the one exchange on guns was interesting. Perriello really tried to distance himself from that NRA endorsement, and even went so far as to attack Northam for being "the deciding vote" on gun safety. I wonder if this will be a topic in the next couple of debates.

Good stuff though, nonetheless.

I'm surprised that Virginia Democrats are shifting so far on gun control. Then again, McAuliffe was very pro gun control during his 2013 campaign.

I guess Jim Webb was the last of the mainstream pro-gun Virginian Democrats.

It's all about NoVA now.

[Gass3268]

New timely Perriello ad

[Gass3268]

I am really getting just depressed at the fact that many, I won't even say Perriello supporters, as it's really not him they are supporting, it's the downfall of the supposed "Centrist Democrats".

Is this really how we move forward?

Perriello, along with some of his supporters, have done a great job of helping push the VA Dems, and Northam in particular down the path of futhered progressivism that can now be achieved. But the thing that does annoy me is those who will not be impacted by this election, nor have any context of what is happening, bashing and denigrating many folks who will be required to win here.

I support Northam, because I think he has the experience and know-how of VA Politics to move this state forward. Does that mean I should attack Perriello as a woman-hating, pro-mass murder, evil creature? Of course not. His positions were his positions, and to be a politician, your positions will change and as a voter, you have to accept that.

Northam supports a $15 Minimum Wage, Free 2-year College Tuition with apprenticeship, Medicaid Expansion, and so many other supposedly solely "progressive" ideals. There is almost NO difference on policy between the candidates, despite the centrist vs. real-left, the media and some on here seem to believe.

I mean, I won't ask for the "can't we all just get along", but at least can we stop vilifying two fine candidates for the Virginia Governorship?

I'm not a Democrat, but I have noticed that the VA Democratic primaries have been pretty bitter.

And the bitterness hasn't come from the candidates themselves, its come from their fans who are having slapfights over who is the "true progressive".

It appears to be more bitter online, haven't really seen much animosity between the two candidates.

[Gass3268]

Long Term Plan for Virginia:

2017

1) Hold Governor, Lieutenant Governor and Attorney General
2) Win 7-10 House of Delegates Seats

2018

1) Knock Out Comstock
2) Kaine Holds His Senate Seat

2019

1) Win 2-3 Senate Seats, Take Control of Chamber (Guarantee at least fair redistricting next round)
2) Win 4-5 House of Delegate Seats, Get Close To Taking Control Or Totally Take It

2020

1) Democrat wins Virginia For President in route to White House
2) Warner Holds His Senate Seat

2021

1) Hold Governor, Lieutenant Governor and Attorney General
2) Win 4-5 House of Delegates Seats, Take Control of the Chamber

2022

1) Fair Redistricting
2) Ant-Voter Suppression Legislation: Move elections to even years, statewide offices and state senate races to Presidential years, automatic voter registration, vote by mail, repeal of voter ID, same day registration, massive expansion of non-excuse early voting, restoration of felon voting rights, statewide holiday for election day, expand voting hours to 10PM Eastern, reduce residency requirements
3) Amendment to allow Governors to run for reelection

[Gass3268]

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I don't see how any Republican wins with those numbers.

[Gass3268]

New Perriello ad heavily featuring Elizabeth Warren with appearances by Sanders and Obama

One thing I've really like about this campaign, outside of a few shots in the debates (which is expected), is just how positive and clean it has been. Baring anything changing here in the last 8 days I don't think either candidate will come out of the primary damaged.

[Gass3268]

Virginia's early vote turnout a week out is at 78.6% of what was cast for the Democratic Presidential Primary last year.

For the Republicans it is only at 43.3% of the total from the Republican Presidential Primary.

Hampton Road's (Northam's base area) early vote turnout a week out is already at 103% of what was cast for the Democratic Presidential Primary last year.

Piedmont's (Perriello's base area) early vote turnout a week out is already at 104% of what was cast for the Democratic Presidential Primary last year.

[Gass3268]

Virginia's early vote turnout a week out is at 78.6% of what was cast for the Democratic Presidential Primary last year.

For the Republicans it is only at 43.3% of the total from the Republican Presidential Primary.

Hampton Road's (Northam's base area) early vote turnout a week out is already at 103% of what was cast for the Democratic Presidential Primary last year.

Piedmont's (Perriello's base area) early vote turnout a week out is already at 104% of what was cast for the Democratic Presidential Primary last year.

Most of the Piedmont numbers are small for absentee and unless a surge of people come out of nowhere to vote in the primary, Piedmont (mostly rural), won't provide enough votes to make up t he difference with the shore and NoVA. Key here is C'ville, Perriello's base. He might, emphasis might, eek out a win with maxed out C'ville but that is a real stretch.

What I wanted to show by highlighting those two regions was that there seems to be good enthusiasm in both candidates home regions.

[Gass3268]

NYT on Dems. Reading between the lines, sounds like a single-digit Northam lead.

Also in this article:

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[Gass3268]

My hunch was correct: Kraushaar reports that Northam's internals have him up 9 & Perriello's outta gas.

Sad. Perriello is an amazing candidate. But he should've run in '13.

There is always 2021.

[Gass3268]

There is always 2021.

I wouldn't be surprised if Herring runs then. Virginia gubernatorial candidates seem to run on a "my turn"-type basis. I actually would have really liked it if Perriello had just run for Lt. Gov this cycle and moved up the ladder from there. Not to say I particularly like the way things operate in VA, but I do like Tom and I'd like to see him in office.

I like the system we have because it produced Warner and Kaine when it otherwise would not have.

As for Perriello, he belongs in Congress much more. He should run for whatever district contains Charlottesville after 2021 (which may be more winnable after redistricting), and then he can move up the Virginia totem pole if he so chooses.

Unlikely dream scenario, Democrats have total control after 2021 and are able to redraw the 7th into a district that incorporates Charlottesville, the surrounding area that normally leans Democratic (Buckingham, Nelson, Prince Edward), removes as much of the hardcore Republican Richmond exurbs, but keeps the Richmond areas that swung hard to Clinton.

[Gass3268]

If Stewart is the nominee, the Dem nominee really doesn't even need to campaign, but I highly doubt he actually gets nominated.

I mean, VA Dems could even flip the lower house of the legislature with Stewart at the top of the GOP ticket.

Yeah, if Stewart is the nominee I would expect Republicans to lose every seat in Fairfax.

[Gass3268]

If Stewart is the nominee, the Dem nominee really doesn't even need to campaign, but I highly doubt he actually gets nominated.

I mean, VA Dems could even flip the lower house of the legislature with Stewart at the top of the GOP ticket.

Yeah, if Stewart is the nominee I would expect Republicans to lose every seat in Fairfax.

How many seats do they even have there these days?

About 2.5

[Gass3268]

If Stewart is the nominee, the Dem nominee really doesn't even need to campaign, but I highly doubt he actually gets nominated.

I mean, VA Dems could even flip the lower house of the legislature with Stewart at the top of the GOP ticket.

Yeah, if Stewart is the nominee I would expect Republicans to lose every seat in Fairfax.

How many seats do they even have there these days?

About 2.5

The Stewart apocalypse would be further out in NOVA and it the Richmond area.  Between Henrico, Loudoun and Prince William, there are 10+ Clinton Republican seats.

Yup, plus the VaTech seat in the SW.