But smoking rates have gone way down. That's a good thing. Less people will die.
Smoking rates have (thankfully) gone down for many difference reasons. I don't know how much a luxury tax has impacted that, I'd say it's minimal.
Many people who are dependent on the nicotine addiction will just continue to buy cigarettes at the higher price, or worse of all, buy cigarettes Eric Garner-style (one a piece) where one could lace those street-sold cigarettes with who knows what.
I think the public health campaigns, the ban on cigarette deceptive advertising and the negative portrayal of cigarette use in movies (usually only unsavory characters in films now have cigarettes) have all done more to lower cigarette use.
What I find funny is that that the same people who argue against the drug war and for marijuana legalization want to use the same tactics they oppose in those cases for sodas and other items.