Unprecedented
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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election What-ifs? (Moderator: Dereich)
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jburnx2
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« on: March 01, 2017, 12:46:05 PM »
« edited: March 01, 2017, 09:58:07 PM by jburnx2 »

un·prec·e·dent·ed /ənˈpresədən(t)əd/ (adj.) - never done or known before
The perfect word to describe Donald Trump was "unprecedented". From the moment he announced his candidacy to the minute he claimed victory on election night, the word was used to describe the famous New York businessman countless times. His stunning upset victory over Hillary Clinton was described as such, as he beat polls by historical margins. Even the President's mispelling of the word as "unpresidented" was unprecedented. The association of the word with Donald Trump didn't stop there, as many of his administrative moves were shocking and polarizing. For the first time in history, the President raged on an all-out war with the press and intelligence agencies who had proved him wrong before. President Trump made far-fetched claims, such as the claim that without illegal votes, he would have flipped the 2.9 million vote deficit against Hillary Clinton during the 2016 election. Trump entered office with historically low approval ratings, entering at 46%, and by a month into the job, he sat low at 38%. His massive turnaround at his joint address to Congress in late February 2017 calmed down some of the angry disapproval, but controversial decisions drove his approval back down. In 2018, the Democrats made a net gain of 1 seat in an impossible year for the party, putting Senate balance at 51 for the Republicans and 49 for the Democrats. Democrats kept all of the seats that were safe or leaning to them and defeated the incumbent in Nevada. The Democrats made a gain of 15 seats in the House, putting balance at 225 to 210.
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This timeline will be interactive, and anyone is free to sign up as a pundit (thanks to the Hindsight is 2020 timeline for the inspiration!). I will begin the first article about the Democratic primaries on Friday.
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Captain Chaos
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« Reply #1 on: March 01, 2017, 02:00:37 PM »

There is no way Sherrod Brown loses reelection.
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jburnx2
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« Reply #2 on: March 02, 2017, 11:16:49 AM »

Background (Part 1)
2008 Presidential Election
The 2008 Presidential election effectively began when Illinois Senator Barack Obama announced he wouldn't be running for president. This left the field wide open, with Senator and former First Lady Hillary Clinton becoming the effective front-runner by the summer of 2007. On the Republican side, Rudy Giuliani was widely seen as the front-runner, and a Clinton-Giuliani election was seen as the most likely matchup. However, when Iowa came, Clinton pulled off a narrower-than-expected victory against Joe Biden, winning by only two-fifths of a percentage point, while for the Republicans, Giuliani took only 3% of the vote. After winning the New Hampshire primary by 18 points, Biden tied up most national polls and kept the delegate race close with Clinton. By this point, Giuliani and Mitt Romney dropped out, leaving John McCain's only legitimate opposition as Mike Huckabee, who dropped out weeks later. Former Senator John Edwards won 4 primary states, but dropped out after getting only 168 delegates on Super Tuesday, putting him far behind Clinton and Biden. By the time the final June primaries rolled around, nobody had a majority of delegates, but superdelegates and the endorsement of Edwards put Biden over the top. McCain chose Alaska governor Sarah Palin as his running mate, while Biden chose Senator Charles Schumer. Throughout the campaign, Biden took large leads at points, but overall the polling showed an extremely tight race. In fact, the polling average for every poll from July to Election Day only showed Biden with a 3-point advantage, but at certain points Biden led by as much as 16 points. Despite having a slim polling deficit on the eve of Election Day, Biden ended up winning a comfortable victory in the general election, with the Biden/Schumer ticket taking 319 electoral votes to McCain/Palin's 219, and he won a slim majority in the popular vote, taking 50.2 percent to McCain's 47.1 percent.
There is no way Sherrod Brown loses reelection.
Yeah, I realize now that in a year that the Democrats won that many seats, the Republicans couldn't win unless they ran Kasich (which I think is unlikely). I fixed it but kept the Senate balance at 51-49 by removing the Democrats' defeat of Jeff Flake.
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