That Guy Could be tough
-John F. Kennedy to his close friend, Paul Fay
Chapter 1: The Republican Presidential primaries
As the year 1963 opened, multiple Republicans were considered possible candidates for the 1964 nomination. These candidates included Senator Barry Goldwater of Arizona, Governor Nelson Rockefeller of New York, and Former Senator (and 1960 Vice presidential nominee) Henry Cabot Lodge, Jr. Goldwater was expected to take the support of Western Republicans and Conservatives, Rockefeller and Lodge were supposed to fight over Eastern, Northern Liberal Republicans
However, when Rockefeller divorced and the remarried to a young woman who already had children, Social Conservatives in the GOP and in other parties were outraged. The GOP leadership thought that nominating Rockefeller would lead to a Kennedy landslide. Rockefeller was contacted by GOP leadership to drop out. Rockefeller declined, but his falling poll numbers made him drop out anyways
Now, Henry Lodge could have taken the Northeastern Liberals and possibly the nomination, but Lodge was short of funds and was short of charisma. Lodge was unable to stop the rising Goldwater candidacy, and Liberals were desperate to find a suitable candidate to stop him.
Then came Governor George Romney of Michigan. Romney had just finished his term, and was preparing to run for president in 1968. However, realizing that a Goldwater nomination would lead to a second Kennedy term, Romney threw his hat in the ring. Romney gained support from a lot of Northeastern liberals, and Lodge soon dropped out to support Romney. James Rhodes, a Conservative like Goldwater, decided to take his race to the convention. That decision hurt Goldwater a lot.
Romney won the first primary: New Hampshire. Congressman John W. Byrnes won Wisconsin with 99% of the vote (though to be fair he was the only candidate on the ballot). Romney then won Illinois, New Jersey, Pennsylvania and Massachusetts, but his advance was stopped with a Goldwater victory in Texas and Indiana. Rhodes won his home state of Ohio. Goldwater then won Nebraska, but Romney came back with a victory in West Virginia, Oregon and Maryland. Goldwater then won Florida, but Romney winning California by 5 points (aided by Senator Thomas Kuchel) gave Goldwater’s campaign a huge blow, but Goldwater’s South Dakota victory gave him hope. By the time the convention came, George Romney got the majority of delegates+5 more. Romney’s running mate was Everett Dirksen. Dirksen was chosen because 1. Dirksen supported Goldwater and could unite the party 2. He is from Illinois, a crucial swing state and 3. He has a lot of experience, being in politics since 1933 (though that casted rumors about his health)
The polls after the convention show Romney leading Kennedy by 3 points (42% Romney, 39% Kennedy, 5% Faubus [1] and 14% undecided)
[1]= Faubus is running on a segregationist third party campaign, however, Lyndon Johnson is campaigning in the South, doing his best to ensure that Faubus doesn’t win a state
Republican Primary map:
George Romney: 6 states won, 40.1% of the popular vote
Barry Goldwater: 4 states won, 35.2% of the popular vote
James Rhodes: 1 state won, 10.4% of the popular vote
John Byrnes: 1 state won, 5.1% of the popular vote
Others: 9.2% of the popular vote
Didn’t hold a primary