Welp, the California drought is probably over.

[Ban my account ffs!]

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/weekend-storm-to-unload-widespread-heavy-rain-in-western-us/70000459

A massive storm will move into the west this weekend and again next week that could dump a general 4-8 inches of rain across much of lowland California and up to 16" of rain in the west facing lower slopes of the mountains.

Snow levels will go up to 9000 feet and lots of snow will melt.  There will be massive flooding not seen in CA since 1997 and possibly since the 80s.  Snow levels will then fall and the higher elevations could get 10 feet of snow...TEN FEET.  Thats 3 meters, Tender!

The heavy snow will affect much of the west including Nevada and Idaho.

This will come to dominate the news in the coming days.

[Virginiá]

This is wonderful! Obviously aside from the storm's threat to people's livelihoods (and lives), this is exactly what CA has desperately needed for some time now.

What if after this surge of storms, things go back to the way they were? Wouldn't that return California back to a position of hardship? Or is this so much rain that it can significantly mitigate issues going forward, even over a span of year(s)?

[Ban my account ffs!]

This is wonderful! Obviously aside from the storm's threat to people's livelihoods (and lives), this is exactly what CA has desperately needed for some time now.

What if after this surge of storms, things go back to the way they were? Wouldn't that return California back to a position of hardship? Or is this so much rain that it can significantly mitigate issues going forward, even over a span of year(s)?

It will certainly fill the reservoirs and load the mountains with snow so that water is not an issue this summer.  Already northern California is ahead of its record rain season in 1982/3 so far...and this storm train will go a long way to possibly break the record by season's end.

It will not be a big storm for SoCal.  Still, LA could see an inch or two of rain while San Diego will see scant rain.  But San Francisco is looking at 7" of rain in the next week and Sacramento at nearly 9". 

Of course drought can return... but these kinds of storms only come seldomly and tend to have a long term effect.  The problem is that CA needs more reservoir capacity...they will fill up but anything more will just wash out to sea.

Mudslides are gonna be bad along with lowland flooding in the Sacramento and San Joaquin valleys.  Accuweather also wouldn't put "catastrophic flooding" on their infographic if this wasn't really serious.

And all during a La Niña too!  Ironically the last wet winter in CA was a La Niña as well... El Niño just doesn't deliver as much anymore.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Oh for the love of f**k, just when I come back after having spent three weeks in freezing cold? Really? Couldn't it have been, like, a week before? Why does the universe hate me so much? FML.

[Mr. Smith]

This is wonderful! Obviously aside from the storm's threat to people's livelihoods (and lives), this is exactly what CA has desperately needed for some time now.

What if after this surge of storms, things go back to the way they were? Wouldn't that return California back to a position of hardship? Or is this so much rain that it can significantly mitigate issues going forward, even over a span of year(s)?

It will certainly fill the reservoirs and load the mountains with snow so that water is not an issue this summer.  Already northern California is ahead of its record rain season in 1982/3 so far...and this storm train will go a long way to possibly break the record by season's end.

It will not be a big storm for SoCal.  Still, LA could see an inch or two of rain while San Diego will see scant rain.  But San Francisco is looking at 7" of rain in the next week and Sacramento at nearly 9". 

Of course drought can return... but these kinds of storms only come seldomly and tend to have a long term effect.  The problem is that CA needs more reservoir capacity...they will fill up but anything more will just wash out to sea.

Mudslides are gonna be bad along with lowland flooding in the Sacramento and San Joaquin valleys.  Accuweather also wouldn't put "catastrophic flooding" on their infographic if this wasn't really serious.

And all during a La Niña too!  Ironically the last wet winter in CA was a La Niña as well... El Niño just doesn't deliver as much anymore.

Excellent post.

But yeah, this is what we call "The Pineapple Express", when what is really needed for anything long-term is the really cold stuff from the Northwest that'll cause a good snowpack in the Sierras.

[justfollowingtheelections]

Good news.  I love California.

[All Along The Watchtower]

Reporting in from the South (SF) Bay here. Rain was insane last night and into the morning. Still raining fairly hard, lots of wind as well.

[Frodo]

Everything will have to align to officially declare an end to this most recent drought.  And even then, given it took years for it to develop and become entrenched, it will take years for California to truly recover from it. 

[Antonio the Sixth]

No rain here in LA so far. Crossing fingers that it never comes.

[Blue3]

A simple rainstorm doesn't end a drought. It rained when I was there 2 years ago.

[Mr. Smith]

Reporting from the East Bay, only raining on and off and with temperatures more akin to a spring in Lynchburg, Virginia or Honolulu than any proper sort of winter...even for this place.

[Ban my account ffs!]

A simple rainstorm doesn't end a drought. It rained when I was there 2 years ago.

This isn't a "simple rainstorm".  What an ignorant comment.

It is an atmospheric river of tropical moisture that only occurs with such severity every 10-25 years.

I guess I'm not sure what your point was.

The drought is already over for most of northern California and this storm will put a big dent in the central CA drought.

[JA]

A simple rainstorm doesn't end a drought. It rained when I was there 2 years ago.

This isn't a "simple rainstorm".  What an ignorant comment.

It is an atmospheric river of tropical moisture that only occurs with such severity every 10-25 years.

I guess I'm not sure what your point was.

The drought is already over for most of northern California and this storm will put a big dent in the central CA drought.

Isn't it going to mostly miss the severe drought areas in the southern part of the valley around Bakersfield, and SoCal?

[Ban my account ffs!]

A simple rainstorm doesn't end a drought. It rained when I was there 2 years ago.

This isn't a "simple rainstorm".  What an ignorant comment.

It is an atmospheric river of tropical moisture that only occurs with such severity every 10-25 years.

I guess I'm not sure what your point was.

The drought is already over for most of northern California and this storm will put a big dent in the central CA drought.

Isn't it going to mostly miss the severe drought areas in the southern part of the valley around Bakersfield, and SoCal?

Yeah.  There is a sharp gradient between areas with heavy rain and areas with very little rain.  In order for SoCal to really get hit you need to have the storms come onshore in central California, while this storm is a big spinning low pressure off the coast of Oregon that is directing a plume of moisture right over central California straight into the Sierras.

Whether the deserts get a lot of rain is a moot point.  The real importance as far as California drought impacts and water availability are concerned, is with central and northern California and the Sierras.

The far north of California is running ahead of their wettest winter on record even while San Diego has seen nothing special.  But a winter where SoCal is wet is not what California needs... because in those cases it tends to mean less precipitation for the state overall, and where it does fall.. it does not fall as snow.

SoCal storms sprinkle the desert and water celebrities' lawns.  Central and NorCal storms fill reservoirs and built up snowpack.

[Ban my account ffs!]

Round two is coming into California now with cooler conditions which means snow levels will be below pass level.

Wind gusts could be as high as 150mph in the high Sierras, just shy of the 175mph wind gusts recorded at Squaw Valley (Lake Tahoe) in the weekend storm.

An additional 4-8" of rain is expected in lower elevations of central and northern California with 4-8 FEET of snow in the mountains.

This will cause further major flooding in the lower elevations of the mountains with flooding likely in the lower elevations as well.

So far this year (2017), San Francisco has received more rain than in all of 2013.

The weekend storm has moved on and is causing major headaches all across the western and central U.S.  Several road closures due to a quick morning rain that froze to the ground followed by snow and blowing snow in Minnesota are reported after a pile-up in Cloquet (near Duluth) and spinouts on highways north and west of the Twin Cities.

This next storm coming into the west right now could create an ice storm across the central plains and into the midwest.

Also of note, but unrelated:  We are likely already in solar minimum again.  So far, 9 of 10 days in 2017 have been spotless on the sun. 

Eastern and southeastern Europe have been experiencing nasty winter conditions.  The islands of Greece have been covered in snow... sometimes measured in meters.  Temperatures have fallen below 0F in parts of northern Greece.  10 people froze to death in Poland with more deaths across the region.

Temperatures in a remote village of Siberia plummeted to -80F in what has been a brutal winter in much of Russia... Moscow experienced its coldest Orthodox Christmas Eve on record at -24F.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Rained on Monday, rained yesterday, and it's supposed to rain tomorrow as well. Ugh.

[Tender Branson]

Round two is coming into California now with cooler conditions which means snow levels will be below pass level.

Wind gusts could be as high as 150mph in the high Sierras, just shy of the 175mph wind gusts recorded at Squaw Valley (Lake Tahoe) in the weekend storm.

An additional 4-8" of rain is expected in lower elevations of central and northern California with 4-8 FEET of snow in the mountains.

This will cause further major flooding in the lower elevations of the mountains with flooding likely in the lower elevations as well.

So far this year (2017), San Francisco has received more rain than in all of 2013.

The weekend storm has moved on and is causing major headaches all across the western and central U.S.  Several road closures due to a quick morning rain that froze to the ground followed by snow and blowing snow in Minnesota are reported after a pile-up in Cloquet (near Duluth) and spinouts on highways north and west of the Twin Cities.

This next storm coming into the west right now could create an ice storm across the central plains and into the midwest.

Also of note, but unrelated:  We are likely already in solar minimum again.  So far, 9 of 10 days in 2017 have been spotless on the sun.  

Eastern and southeastern Europe have been experiencing nasty winter conditions.  The islands of Greece have been covered in snow... sometimes measured in meters.  Temperatures have fallen below 0F in parts of northern Greece.  10 people froze to death in Poland with more deaths across the region.

Temperatures in a remote village of Siberia plummeted to -80F in what has been a brutal winter in much of Russia... Moscow experienced its coldest Orthodox Christmas Eve on record at -24F.

Yeah, it's much colder and more snow-intense here than the last years.

But the last years were pretty terrible anyway, too warm/wet and snow-cover well below average.

This year is just a return back to normal (and not even that): 20-40 years ago, Lake Zell am See would be frozen and people could go ice-skating on the lake. Nowadays, only small parts of the lake are frozen and it's too dangerous to go onto it.

20-40 years ago, we'd have -20°C for one or two weeks. Now people already complain if there's -20°C for one or two days !

Anyway, we are getting another 1-2 feet of snow this weekend ...

[Ban my account ffs!]

The storm train is expected to move back into California next week.  So far, those storms don't appear to be as powerful as the ones just experienced but it will also take a lot less to flood things again.

The exceptional drought in California is almost gone and all drought north of I-80 has been ameliorated.  Currently most of California north of Bakersfield is experiencing their wettest winter on record so far... though the wettest winter in the north (1982/83) and further south (1968/69) had a lot of rain in February/March.  The wet season in the north centers on January while it centers on February in SoCal.  So we still have a ways to go.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Rainy and chilly all day today... Thank God the forecast doesn't have any rain for the next 5 days, but temperatures are still unacceptably cold.

[Tender Branson]

Snowing like sh*t right now.

Probably 30-40 cm so far (that's about 1 foot).

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Huge improvement in the map. NorCal is mostly out of drought. Although Southern California still has the worst category.

[muon2]

It will be interesting to see if any of this affects my travels this week. I'll be driving in southern NV, southwest UT, and Death Valley over the next 7 days.

[Tender Branson]

CA and much of the West will have a significant amount of snow and rain next weekend.

Here, it snowed virtually the whole day and another 20-30 cm (1 foot) are expected tomorrow.

Sunday is looking pretty nice though, so I'll probably put on my snow shoes and hike up the mountains.

[Ban my account ffs!]

Nearly all of California is well on track for its wettest winter on record.  The drought is shrinking away.  We'll see if the rains/snow continue... but already parts of Tahoe and Mammoth are planning to ski 'til the 4th of July this year.

[Ban my account ffs!]

More heavy rain and mountain snow continues to pummel California and it looks like another wet period is in store over the next few weeks after a brief dry spell. 

Mammoth Mountain is reporting an absolutely massive 340" base of snow at their summit.  That is 28 feet of snow.  Even on the lower mountain they have nearly 15 feet of snow.

The big story right now is the damage to the Lake Oroville dam spillway in northern California.  A large hole has developed in the spillway which, while not necessarily affecting the strength of the dam itself, might force them to stop using it.  This is very bad because the reservoir is only 4 feet from the top of the dam... unheard of for so early in the season.  Even in the super El Nino year of 1997/98, they only briefly approached full in June after months of snow melt. 

The emergency spillway can be used if the reservoir rises to the top... but this is a dangerous prospect since it spills into an "unlined ravine" which would propel tons of soil, trees, rocks, and other debris into the Feather river and cause more damage.  Even today, the amount of water being forced through the damage spillway is still half the amount still flowing into the reservoir from recent heavy rains.

A year ago, all kinds of environmentalists and leftwing publications were declaring "permanent drought" in California.  That was quite premature.