Booker likely will be hard to beat in the Primary (esp in a crowded field)

[SCNCmod]

When you think which states the potential 2020 Dems would win in the Primary... Booker likely will be hard to beat in the Primary (esp in a crowded field).  He would likely carry all of the Southern States + NJ & NY (and probably a heavy favorite in California).

If he did win- He would likely need a VP from a land-locked State... and maybe one with Military Experience (or someone on Intel & Arms Services Committee).

[SCNCmod]

That's actually a good point. South Carolina and potentially Nevada could be pretty favorable for him. Maybe New Hampshire? I don't know if him being from the Northeast has much bearing there.

If I was Trump or the RNC, I'd fear Booker and Bullock the most.

56% of Dem Primary voters in SC were Black (and similar in most Southern States)... which would most likely provide a really big advantage for Booker.

(Not that his appeal is limited to minorities.  Stanford, Yale Law, Rhodes Scholar, Good Name recognition, & good speaking skills ... will get a serious look from most Dem voters)

[Hindsight was 2020]

As a NYer who has followed Booker the die hard progs here are really too hard on him he is very charismatic and likeable

[Crumpets]

But at the same time, he will likely crash and burn in Iowa and New Hampshire. Plus, I wouldn't be surprised if Biden pulls a large portion of the black vote if he gets in.

[SCNCmod]

As a NYer who has followed Booker the die hard progs here are really too hard on him he is very charismatic and likeable

Hopefully regardless who gets the nominee... ALL supporters of ANY candidate in the Dem Primary.. will have enough sense to put differences aside in an effort to defeat Trump.

[SCNCmod]

But at the same time, he will likely crash and burn in Iowa and New Hampshire. Plus, I wouldn't be surprised if Biden pulls a large portion of the black vote if he gets in.

I could see Booker doing well in either Iowa or NH (esp NH, which I think has one of the highest percentages of College Student voting in the Dem Primary... a group Booker tends to be popular with).  But even if he were to lose IA & NH... he would still easily win SC.

Biden would be pushing 80 if he were elected.  I don't see him running... Which is probably a good thing for 2020 vs Trump.

[Confused Democrat]

As a NYer who has followed Booker the die hard progs here are really too hard on him he is very charismatic and likeable

Hopefully regardless who gets the nominee... ALL supporters of ANY candidate in the Dem Primary.. will have enough sense to put differences aside in an effort to defeat Trump.

If that's your takeaway from this election, then Democrats certainly haven't learned their lesson.

[SCNCmod]

As a NYer who has followed Booker the die hard progs here are really too hard on him he is very charismatic and likeable

Hopefully regardless who gets the nominee... ALL supporters of ANY candidate in the Dem Primary.. will have enough sense to put differences aside in an effort to defeat Trump.

If that's your takeaway from this election, then Democrats certainly haven't learned their lesson.

I think 2020 will be a bit different. 1) because the candidate will likely not be as polarizing as Hillary & 2) Many voters thought Hillary would def win, & so therefor didn't mind showing somewhat of a protest vote for a 3rd party candidate.. or maybe even Trump.  

...Where as this time- Dem Primary voters will be more likely to think- If I don't vote for the Dem nominee... Trump will be re-elected. (Not to mention... a Generate of a very Conservative Supreme Court to follow)

[Tintrlvr]

When you think which states the potential 2020 Dems would win in the Primary... Booker likely will be hard to beat in the Primary (esp in a crowded field).  He would likely carry all of the Southern States + NJ & NY (and probably a heavy favorite in California).

If he did win- He would likely need a VP from a land-locked State... and maybe one with Military Experience (or someone on Intel & Arms Services Committee).

This depends heavily on which other candidates run. For example, if Booker is up against Kamala Harris and one or more of Andrew Cuomo or Kirsten Gillibrand in the primary (all people considered somewhere between likely and very likely to run), the advantages you note disappear for pretty obvious reasons.

[Mr. Morden]

Booker seems to be the most likely black candidate to run, but it's certainly *possible* that, say, Kamala Harris or Deval Patrick also run.

In any case, we don't know that blacks will block vote for any one candidate in 2020.  However, it is true that black candidates running for the Dem. nomination for president always overperform among blacks relative to whites.  Heck, even Al Sharpton in 2004, who was an asterisk with white voters, managed 17% of the black vote in South Carolina:

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/primaries/pages/epolls/SC/

So yes, one would presume that South Carolina will be one of Booker's better states.

But just because Obama '08 was strong among both blacks and "wine track" whites doesn't mean that Booker would be able to replicate his strength among both groups.  Seems likely that the white Obama '08 primary voters will have other options.

[SCNCmod]

When you think which states the potential 2020 Dems would win in the Primary... Booker likely will be hard to beat in the Primary (esp in a crowded field).  He would likely carry all of the Southern States + NJ & NY (and probably a heavy favorite in California).

If he did win- He would likely need a VP from a land-locked State... and maybe one with Military Experience (or someone on Intel & Arms Services Committee).

This depends heavily on which other candidates run. For example, if Booker is up against Kamala Harris and one or more of Andrew Cuomo or Kirsten Gillibrand in the primary (all people considered somewhere between likely and very likely to run), the advantages you note disappear for pretty obvious reasons.

I definitely agree- If Kamala Harris enters.  But I don't think she will, Having just been elected. (although she would be a VP consideration for many).  If Cuomo or Gillibrand enter- Booker still carries the entire South + NJ ..off the bat

[Mr. Morden]

Thread from last year, just after the South Carolina primary:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=230684.0

[Senator-elect Spark]

Not if Kamala runs

[Pericles]

Black voters won't necessarily vote for Booker just because he is black. Clinton led Obama with black voters until after Iowa, and Biden leads with the black vote now. Biden or a white guy who has appeal to that demographic could get them, not Booker.

[Figueira]

Yeah, I'm thinking Booker is the most likely nominee at this point.

[SCNCmod]

When you think which states the potential 2020 Dems would win in the Primary... Booker likely will be hard to beat in the Primary (esp in a crowded field).  He would likely carry all of the Southern States + NJ & NY (and probably a heavy favorite in California).

If he did win- He would likely need a VP from a land-locked State... and maybe one with Military Experience (or someone on Intel & Arms Services Committee).

This depends heavily on which other candidates run. For example, if Booker is up against Kamala Harris and one or more of Andrew Cuomo or Kirsten Gillibrand in the primary (all people considered somewhere between likely and very likely to run), the advantages you note disappear for pretty obvious reasons.

Andrew Cuomo's 2020 candidacy will go absolutely nowhere.

I very much agree.  I actually any NY candidate will go nowhere this year....after this election being so NY Heavy (which will lead to Gillibrand not running this cycle)

[JA]

Yeah, I'm thinking Booker is the most likely nominee at this point.

Barring some unforeseeable major fumble on his part, I'd agree with you. Booker is the most likely nominee at this point. Although, obviously, it's far too early to really know anything like that.

[coloradocowboi]

Yeah, I'm thinking Booker is the most likely nominee at this point.

Barring some unforeseeable major fumble on his part, I'd agree with you. Booker is the most likely nominee at this point. Although, obviously, it's far too early to really know anything like that.

This is like me guessing that Colorado will win the Pac-12 championship in 2020 because they are getting lots of press now. There is no frontrunner in this race 3 years out.

.

But just because Obama '08 was strong among both blacks and "wine track" whites doesn't mean that Booker would be able to replicate his strength among both groups.  Seems likely that the white Obama '08 primary voters will have other options.

This. First of all, doing poorly in Iowa and New Hampshire could really ding him and make him seem unviable prior to the SC primary.

Also, he has to replicate the Hillary coalition from this year (a thin one), and he has nothing to offer Latinos or the feminist camp intrinsically. I don't like Cory Booker, but he is a viable candidate, just not the most viable--in fact I'd say with a more problematic path to victory than Warren, Brown, Sanders, or Biden.

[Thunderbird is the word]

In some ways Booker (at least from a left-wing perspective) would be even worse then Hillary. He'd probably campaign openly and unapologetically on support for TPP like deals and would essentially represent the complete realignment of politics where the Democrats would become a fiscally conservative and socially liberal elite party and Republicans a right-wing populist one.

[Mr. Morden]

In some ways Booker (at least from a left-wing perspective) would be even worse then Hillary. He'd probably campaign openly and unapologetically on support for TPP like deals....

I'm not sure how that would even work, unless Trump himself totally flip-flops on trade and starts pushing TPP-like deals.

The president negotiates trade deals, and both members of Congress and presidential candidates either support or oppose those deals.  But presidential candidates don't typically campaign in support of hypothetical deals that no one has actually negotiated yet.  I'm trying to think of a single example of when that has happened.....

[MaxQue]

No, unless they want Trump to be relected.

He is a caricature of Hillary. He has all of her faults, but enlarged.

[Mr. Morden]

Black voters won't necessarily vote for Booker just because he is black. Clinton led Obama with black voters until after Iowa....

There were definitely *some* polls from 2007 that had Obama leading among blacks.  E.g., this national poll from way back in February 2007 had Obama leading among blacks:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/02/27/AR2007022701030.html

And this one from Sept. 2007 had him leading among blacks in South Carolina:

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2007/09/13/poll-obama-and-clinton-leading-with-blacks-in-sc/

But you’re right that Clinton led among blacks in the majority of polls taken in 2007.  More common were polls like this:

http://www.pewresearch.org/2007/08/30/black-enthusiasm-for-clinton-and-obama-leaves-little-room-for-edwards/

that had Clinton leading among both whites and blacks.  But even in those polls, Obama tended to overperform among black voters….in that case getting twice as large a share of the black vote as he was getting of the white vote….though still not enough beat Clinton among either.

So even though, sure, Booker might not outright win black voters, I definitely expect him to do better with them than he does with whites (and we can already see that in the primary polls that have already been conducted), meaning that he’d likely do better in the South than other regions of the country.

[houseonaboat]

In some ways Booker (at least from a left-wing perspective) would be even worse then Hillary. He'd probably campaign openly and unapologetically on support for TPP like deals and would essentially represent the complete realignment of politics where the Democrats would become a fiscally conservative and socially liberal elite party and Republicans a right-wing populist one.

Plot twist: Booker voted against fast-track.

I swear, the caricature of Booker on this sub makes it appear that he's to the right of Jim Webb. There's little in his vote history or as mayor of Newark to indicate anything less than a progressive record on every issue except education reform.

[GoTfan]

In some ways Booker (at least from a left-wing perspective) would be even worse then Hillary. He'd probably campaign openly and unapologetically on support for TPP like deals and would essentially represent the complete realignment of politics where the Democrats would become a fiscally conservative and socially liberal elite party and Republicans a right-wing populist one.

Plot twist: Booker voted against fast-track.

I swear, the caricature of Booker on this sub makes it appear that he's to the right of Jim Webb. There's little in his vote history or as mayor of Newark to indicate anything less than a progressive record on every issue except education reform.

He's pro-free trade, which loses the industrial areas. He's a transparent Wall Street supporter who defended Bain Capital publicly, which loses progressives. Dressing nicely and speaking well aren't qualities that necessarily make a good candidate. He needs to be able to fire up the progressive wing.

Oh and the education thing isn't going to endear him to many

[VPH]

I think Booker would excel in the suburban Obama 2008-Clinton 2016 primary counties along with in heavily Black areas, making him formidable indeed.

I have serious reservations about some of his policy stances, but I love Senator Booker regardless.