Map with popular vote tie
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Author Topic: Map with popular vote tie  (Read 724 times)
President Johnson
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« on: January 07, 2017, 06:07:07 AM »
How would an electoral map look like with a popular vote tie? Both candidates at exactly 49%.
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #1 on: January 09, 2017, 08:07:26 PM »
« Edited: January 10, 2017, 04:46:08 PM by brucejoel99 »


Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine (D): 274 EV, 49.0%
Donald Trump/Mike Pence (R): 264 EV, 49.0%
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DPKdebator
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« Reply #2 on: January 09, 2017, 10:36:26 PM »
« Edited: January 10, 2017, 08:12:53 PM by DPKdebator »
Quote from: brucejoel99 on January 09, 2017, 08:07:26 PM


Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine (D): 275 EV, 49.0%
Donald Trump/Mike Pence (R): 263 EV, 49.0%

Trump would not lose a PV tie; if anything he'd flip MN, NH, ME, NV, plus maybe VA and CO.
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darthebearnc
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« Reply #3 on: January 09, 2017, 10:39:01 PM »
The actual answer based on uniform swing is that Trump would have picked up NH and MN.
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Goldwater
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« Reply #4 on: January 10, 2017, 12:03:35 PM »
Quote from: brucejoel99 on January 09, 2017, 08:07:26 PM


Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine (D): 275 EV, 49.0%
Donald Trump/Mike Pence (R): 263 EV, 49.0%

How does Trump increasing his share of the popular vote cause him to lose the electoral vote? That makes no sense.
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #5 on: January 10, 2017, 04:43:19 PM »
« Edited: January 10, 2017, 04:46:53 PM by brucejoel99 »
Quote from: Goldwater on January 10, 2017, 12:03:35 PM
Quote from: brucejoel99 on January 09, 2017, 08:07:26 PM


Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine (D): 274 EV, 49.0%
Donald Trump/Mike Pence (R): 264 EV, 49.0%

How does Trump increasing his share of the popular vote cause him to lose the electoral vote? That makes no sense.

B/c Hillary is increasing her share of the PV in this scenario as well (she gains MI, PA, & WI; Trump gains NH)
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #6 on: January 10, 2017, 04:44:56 PM »
« Edited: January 10, 2017, 04:46:50 PM by brucejoel99 »
Quote from: DPKdebator on January 09, 2017, 10:36:26 PM
Quote from: brucejoel99 on January 09, 2017, 08:07:26 PM


Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine (D): 274 EV, 49.0%
Donald Trump/Mike Pence (R): 264 EV, 49.0%

Trump would not lose an EV tie; if anything he'd flip MN, NH, ME, NV, plus maybe VA and CO.

This isn't an EV tie; it's a PV tie (at 49/49). B/c Hillary is also increasing her share of the PV in this scenario in addition to Trump as well, she gains MI, PA, & WI, while Trump gains NH.
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darthebearnc
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« Reply #7 on: January 10, 2017, 04:47:09 PM »
Quote from: brucejoel99 on January 10, 2017, 04:44:56 PM
Quote from: DPKdebator on January 09, 2017, 10:36:26 PM
Quote from: brucejoel99 on January 09, 2017, 08:07:26 PM


Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine (D): 275 EV, 49.0%
Donald Trump/Mike Pence (R): 263 EV, 49.0%

Trump would not lose an EV tie; if anything he'd flip MN, NH, ME, NV, plus maybe VA and CO.

This isn't an EV tie; it's a PV tie (at 49/49). B/c Hillary is also increasing her share of the PV in this scenario in addition to Trump as well, she gains MI, PA, & WI, while Trump gains NH.

In order for both candidates to reach 49%, Trump would have to gain three times as many votes as Clinton, meaning that there's no way he would lose more states to her.
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Vern
vern1988
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« Reply #8 on: January 10, 2017, 04:49:47 PM »
« Edited: January 10, 2017, 04:55:30 PM by vern1988 »
Quote from: brucejoel99 on January 10, 2017, 04:43:19 PM
Quote from: Goldwater on January 10, 2017, 12:03:35 PM
Quote from: brucejoel99 on January 09, 2017, 08:07:26 PM


Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine (D): 274 EV, 49.0%
Donald Trump/Mike Pence (R): 264 EV, 49.0%

How does Trump increasing his share of the popular vote cause him to lose the electoral vote? That makes no sense.

B/c Hillary is increasing her share of the PV in this scenario as well (she gains MI, PA, & WI; Trump gains NH)

You are dumb, if Hillary gains 1% in popular vote and Trump gains 4% in the popular vote, then He would win MN, NH and NV. (Im guessing, I'm not looking at the numbers.)


Edit: He would only flip MN and NH.
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DPKdebator
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« Reply #9 on: January 10, 2017, 08:12:21 PM »
Quote from: brucejoel99 on January 10, 2017, 04:44:56 PM
Quote from: DPKdebator on January 09, 2017, 10:36:26 PM
Quote from: brucejoel99 on January 09, 2017, 08:07:26 PM


Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine (D): 274 EV, 49.0%
Donald Trump/Mike Pence (R): 264 EV, 49.0%

Trump would not lose an EV tie; if anything he'd flip MN, NH, ME, NV, plus maybe VA and CO.

This isn't an EV tie; it's a PV tie (at 49/49). B/c Hillary is also increasing her share of the PV in this scenario in addition to Trump as well, she gains MI, PA, & WI, while Trump gains NH.
My bad, that was an error. I meant to say PV, so I'll edit it.
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #10 on: January 12, 2017, 09:06:13 AM »
Quote from: ͡◔ ᴥ ͡◔ on January 10, 2017, 04:47:09 PM
Quote from: brucejoel99 on January 10, 2017, 04:44:56 PM
Quote from: DPKdebator on January 09, 2017, 10:36:26 PM
Quote from: brucejoel99 on January 09, 2017, 08:07:26 PM


Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine (D): 275 EV, 49.0%
Donald Trump/Mike Pence (R): 263 EV, 49.0%

Trump would not lose an EV tie; if anything he'd flip MN, NH, ME, NV, plus maybe VA and CO.

This isn't an EV tie; it's a PV tie (at 49/49). B/c Hillary is also increasing her share of the PV in this scenario in addition to Trump as well, she gains MI, PA, & WI, while Trump gains NH.

In order for both candidates to reach 49%, Trump would have to gain three times as many votes as Clinton, meaning that there's no way he would lose more states to her.

You're assuming a uniform swing. I'm not necessarily doing the same; rather, I merely switched the states where the margin of victory was under 1% (which is entirely possible when you're not assuming a uniform swing). There's your difference.
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #11 on: January 12, 2017, 09:08:33 AM »
Quote from: vern1988 on January 10, 2017, 04:49:47 PM
Quote from: brucejoel99 on January 10, 2017, 04:43:19 PM
Quote from: Goldwater on January 10, 2017, 12:03:35 PM
Quote from: brucejoel99 on January 09, 2017, 08:07:26 PM


Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine (D): 274 EV, 49.0%
Donald Trump/Mike Pence (R): 264 EV, 49.0%

How does Trump increasing his share of the popular vote cause him to lose the electoral vote? That makes no sense.

B/c Hillary is increasing her share of the PV in this scenario as well (she gains MI, PA, & WI; Trump gains NH)

You are dumb, if Hillary gains 1% in popular vote and Trump gains 4% in the popular vote, then He would win MN, NH and NV. (Im guessing, I'm not looking at the numbers.)


Edit: He would only flip MN and NH.

I'm not necessarily assuming a uniform swing, though; rather, for a lack of time, I merely switched the states where the margin of victory was under 1% (which is entirely possible when you're not assuming a uniform swing); my apologies
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