"Red Wall" - A 2016-Beyond Timeline

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Poll: Trump Maintains Solid National Lead
by HANNAH HARTIG, JOHN LAPINSKI, and STEPHANIE PSYLLOS

After a fantastic week for Donald Trump, with Senator Bernie Sanders increasing his attacks on the famous New York businessman and getting nasty in the final week of the campaign, the Republican nominee maintains a solid lead over the socialist Senator from Vermont, a spread of five points.
In the two-way matchup, Trump enjoys 51 percent support this week among likely voters, while Sanders rises a single percentage point to 46 percent. The race has tightened since the early summer months, when the Republican nominee peaked at a 19-point advantage over Senator Sanders, but Donald Trump still maintains his lead.
As a point of comparison, Democratic president Barack Obama won by 7 percentage points in 2008, and he won by 4 in 2012.
The latest NBC News|SurveyMonkey poll was conducted from November 2nd to November 6th, 2016 online among likely voters.
In a three-way race, Trump leads by 4 points, almost reaching a majority, having support from 49 percent of respondents to Sanders’ 45 percent and Gary Johnson’s 4 percent. Trump’s margin over the Democratic nominee has shrunk since Sander’s shining performance in the final debate, but he maintains a lead.
Trump currently enjoys a lead over Sanders among a number of key demographic groups, including men (53 percent to 44 percent) and white voters (62 percent to 34 percent). Among independents, however, it’s a close race, with Sanders narrowly edging out Trump to get 47 percent support compared to 45 for the Republican nominee. Johnson gets 7 percent among these voters, his highest of any demographic group.
Sanders maintains his lead over Trump among women (50 percent to 44 percent), among Blacks (90 percent to 6 percent), Asians (61 percent to 35 percent), and Hispanics (64 percent to 34 percent). Among evangelicals, Trump has a massive lead (83 percent to 14 percent), but among people with other or no religious affiliation, Sanders leads with 58 percent to 39 percent.
Among LGBT voters, Sanders leads 75 percent to 21 percent. Heterosexuals favor Trump 50 to 46.
On the issues, people who care most about foreign policy favor Sanders 61 percent to 36 percent. Those who care most about immigration favor Trump, 68 percent to 29 percent. As far as the economy goes, both candidates receive 48 percent support. Terrorism favors Trump, 60 percent to 37 percent.
The latest NBC News|SurveyMonkey Forecast shows that we're predicting Donald Trump to win the presidency tomorrow night, taking 339 electoral votes to Bernie Sanders' 199. Also according to the forecast, Trump will take every state Mitt Romney carried in 2012, plus Florida, Ohio, Iowa, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, and Maine's 2nd Congressional District.
"In our toss-ups map, Donald Trump has 190 electoral votes while Bernie Sanders has 185. If Trump takes every red state and states that Mitt Romney came close to winning in 2012, he already has 263 electoral votes. After that, he just needs one of the following: Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Virginia, Michigan, Minnesota, or Colorado. Meanwhile, Bernie Sanders needs to make up serious ground-- Trump has leads in every state Mitt Romney came close to winning in 2012. If Trump wins those, Bernie Sanders has to take every remaining toss-up state to win the presidency. The only one he could afford to lose is New Mexico, and if Trump won that, it would give Sanders a narrow 270-268 win." -Steve Kornacki, MSNBC Election Analyst
It, for now, appears that Donald Trump's red wall is holding up very strongly.

Up Next: Election Night 2016

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Election Night Coverage
7:00 PM

Brian Williams: We’re coming up on the first poll closings at the top of the hour.
In the state of Georgia, the presidential race is Too Close To Call. 16 electoral votes, both parties want it very badly.
In Virginia, ditto, 13 electoral votes, Too Early To Call. Simply not enough vote in, but we’re being told Sanders has an early lead.
Here is the first projection in the Trump column in Decision 2016. That is the state of Indiana, home obviously to his running mate Mike Pence, who is Governor there, Indiana goes to Donald Trump. As does Kentucky, with 8 electoral votes, two in a row there for Trump.
We have our first projected win for Bernie Sanders, and look of all places, it’s Vermont, his home state. Three electoral votes, but the first, nonetheless.
South Carolina is Too Early To Call, but Donald Trump has an early lead. Too Early To Call simply means we don’t know enough.
And down on to the ice we go, the race to 270. It’s 3 for Sanders, 19 for Trump. We don’t have much red or much blue yet but in a little while, it’ll be quite different.
I wanna take a look real quick over to our Big Wall at some of the Senate races, big early Senate races, where we have projections. Widely recognized Rand Paul from the Republican primary process, he is returning to the Senate, Republican representing the state of Kentucky. Tim Scott is going back to the United States Senate, South Carolinian and Republican, and in Vermont, what’s projected to be a victory of 30 or so points, Pat Leahy will be heading back, a veteran Democrat from the state of Vermont.
It’s going to be very close for the Senate tonight, Chuck Todd has determined that if we project control of the US Senate, that it will be at an hour followed by an A.M., and not a P.M.

7:24 PM

Williams: Let’s give it over to political analyst Steve Kornacki for a moment, here, Steve.
Steve Kornacki: Well, we are waiting now, poll closings coming up in Ohio and North Carolina, I think you know the stakes in both states. North Carolina, President Obama was down there about a week ago saying, “Look, if Bernie Sanders wins this, he wins the election.” So what we’re looking for, again, story of the night here really is about demographic composition, just how divided we are. So take a look in Ohio, the black vote here is critical for Democrats in Ohio. Remember, President Obama carried Ohio four years ago narrowly, that was pretty much the state that re-elected him as President, so one of the keys to that four years ago was that 15% of the electorate in Ohio was black, and that represented enormous turnout for African Americans. If you think back pre-Obama, when John Kerry was the Democratic nominee back in 2004, you’ll see that African Americans only made up 10% of the electorate. So that number is massively growing, and helping out the Democrats.

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

Looks good!

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7:30 PM

Williams: The 7:30 closings have just arrived. The first return will be Ohio, Too Close To Call. Valuable, valuable 18 electoral votes. North Carolina, Too Early To Call. Simply not enough raw vote to make a projection. West Virginia, on the other hand, gets added to the Trump pile. 5 electoral votes.
The night is young, and right now Donald Trump leads Bernie Sanders in the Electoral College count, 24 to 3. Our map is starting to fill in, but there are very few real results here at 7:30.

VIRGINIA - TOO EARLY TO CALL
DONALD TRUMP 81,204 - 56%
BERNIE SANDERS 61,034 - 42%
4% REPORTING
GEORGIA - TOO EARLY TO CALL
DONALD TRUMP 3,675 - 75%
BERNIE SANDERS 1,243 - 25%
1% REPORTING
SOUTH CAROLINA - TOO EARLY TO CALL
DONALD TRUMP 391 - 52%
BERNIE SANDERS 365 - 48%
0% REPORTING

Williams: Rob Portman will be returning to the US Senate to represent the state of Ohio, and wow has that race been through a lot of changes. Huge target on his back. The North Carolina Senate race is Too Close To Call at this hour.

Democrats: 36
GOP: 33
Independent: 2

The US Senate composition right now is about like that, that’s the real moving target tonight.

FLORIDA - TOO CLOSE TO CALL
DONALD TRUMP 1,958,093 - 49%
BERNIE SANDERS 1,928,885 - 48%
43% REPORTING
SOUTH CAROLINA - TOO EARLY TO CALL
DONALD TRUMP 1,325 - 50%
BERNIE SANDERS 1,296 - 49%
0% REPORTING

7:47 PM

Williams: Donald Trump has taken an early lead in Virginia--

VIRGINIA - TOO CLOSE TO CALL
DONALD TRUMP 255,983 - 56%
BERNIE SANDERS 192,621 - 43%
12% REPORTING

7:52 PM

Williams: We have a projection, South Carolina now on the board for Donald Trump. 9 electoral votes there, let’s take a look at the road to 270. Trump now has 33 electoral votes while Bernie Sanders still has 3.

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8:00 PM

Williams:

Let’s do it. 8:00 Eastern Time.

FLORIDA - TOO CLOSE TO CALL
BERNIE SANDERS 3,464,718 - 50%
DONALD TRUMP 3,347,308 - 49%
75% REPORTING

The state of Florida we have as too close to call. 29 electoral votes.
Pennsylvania, Too Early To Call. 20 electoral votes.

NEW HAMPSHIRE - TOO EARLY TO CALL
BERNIE SANDERS 20,714 - 58%
DONALD TRUMP 15,040 - 42%
5% REPORTING

New Hampshire is Too Early To Call. 4 highly fought over electoral votes.
Illinois goes to the Sanders column. A big state, 20 electoral votes, one of the states Sanders needed to hold on to if he wanted any hope of winning tonight.
The next state we’re calling is New Jersey, the most densely populated state in the Union with 14 electoral votes, that goes for Bernie Sanders, as does the Bay State, the Commonwealth of Massachusetts with its 11 electoral votes.
Adding to the Trump block in the South is Tennessee. We’re projecting that when all the votes are counted he will receive those 11 electoral votes.
Maryland. Reliably Democratic Maryland goes to Bernie Sanders, 10 electoral votes there.
Alabama! 9 electoral votes going to Trump. Oklahoma in the Midwest will go to Donald Trump. 7 electoral votes.
Back up we go to New England, the state of Connecticut, the Nutmeg State with 7 electoral votes, going to Bernie Sanders.
Mississippi, way down south going to Donald-- ohh, I have, we have awarded it to Donald Trump.
Rhode Island, we keep whip-sawing back up to New England, goes to Bernie Sanders. Part of our story, actually, is in this whip-saw. 4 electoral votes.
Delaware to Bernie Sanders, home state of Vice President Joe Biden, 3 electoral votes go to Senator Sanders.
The District of Columbia, 3 electoral votes, we could go into a longer conversation about taxation without representation there, goes to Bernie Sanders.
The state of Missouri is Too Early To Call, with Trump out front, and in the state of Maine, Too Early To Call. Sanders is in the lead.
Let’s look at the count so far. 75 to 66 in the race to 270 electoral votes, it’s early yet and here is how the map looks.

Not enough posts to post map

Let’s take a look at the races we’re still watching.

OHIO - TOO CLOSE TO CALL
BERNIE SANDERS 465,589 - 52%
DONALD TRUMP 411,261 - 46%
16% REPORTING

Ohio is Too Close To Call. This could be a while. 16% of the raw vote in.

GEORGIA - TOO CLOSE TO CALL
DONALD TRUMP 81,597 - 68%
BERNIE SANDERS 33,919 - 28%
3% REPORTING

Georgia is Too Close To Call, closely watched state in the South.

NORTH CAROLINA - TOO EARLY TO CALL
BERNIE SANDERS 1,042,328 - 53%
DONALD TRUMP 880,354 - 44%
42% REPORTING

North Carolina, Too Early To Call.

VIRGINIA - TOO EARLY TO CALL
DONALD TRUMP 532,289 - 55%
BERNIE SANDERS 405,142 - 42%
25% REPORTING

Virginia is Too Early To Call, but there’s a lead on Trump’s part.
We have a Senate race -- Illinois. This one got a lot of attention, just lately, after their candidates debate. Tammy Duckworth, a decorated combat veteran, turning away the incumbent in this race.
Rachel Maddow: This is important, not only because of who Tammy Duckworth is, but it’s important because this is the Democrats ousting an incumbent Republican senator who was running for re-election. This will add one seat to the Democratic total in the Senate, in a way that could be determining in the end.

DEM: 39
GOP: 35
IND: 2

Democrats will need five seats if Donald Trump wins the presidency, they’ll only need four if Bernie Sanders wins the presidency tonight. Mark Kirk, as an incumbent Senator you’d think he’d have some strength, but he’s a Republican Senator in a blue state, but, forgive me, he ran a bad campaign.

FLORIDA SENATE - TOO CLOSE TO CALL
MARCO RUBIO 3,522,691 - 51%
PATRICK MURPHY 3,189,412 - 46%
74% REPORTING

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

"Red wall" sounds like a reference to some nickname for a Cold War-era Eastern weapons system or infrastructure plan.