Why did college towns swing towards Hillary?

[heatcharger]

Before the election, I had the feeling her margins in counties with college towns would be watered down because of Bernie people and "both candidates suck" types. In reality, a whole slew of counties with college towns, even ones with surrounding rural areas, actually swung left like these:

Albemarle County, VA (UVA)
Montgomery County, VA (Virginia Tech)
Centre County, PA (Penn State)
Clarke County, GA (UGA)
Knox County, TN (U of Tennessee)
Johnson County, IA (U of Iowa)
Aluachua County, FL (U of Florida)
Douglas County, KS (U of Kansas)
Boone County, MO (U of Missouri)
Monroe County, IN (U of Indiana)
Lafayette County, MS (Ole Miss)
Brazos County, TX (Texas A&M)

Hell, even Tuscaloosa County, AL trended left. I wasn't even including any Ivy League schools or others located in big cities that swung left despite the rest of the state like OSU (Columbus), Wisconsin (Madison), and Michigan (Ann Arbor) and so on. So yeah, why did so many college towns swing left despite their proximity to rural areas?

[justfollowingtheelections]

Trump

[DPKdebator]

A lot of college kids are brainwashed to hate Republicans.

[Beet]

Before the election, I had the feeling her margins in counties with college towns would be watered down because of Bernie people and "both candidates suck" types. In reality, a whole slew of counties with college towns, even ones with surrounding rural areas, actually swung left like these:

Albemarle County, VA (UVA)
Montgomery County, VA (Virginia Tech)
Centre County, PA (Penn State)
Clarke County, GA (UGA)
Knox County, TN (U of Tennessee)
Johnson County, IA (U of Iowa)
Aluachua County, FL (U of Florida)
Douglas County, KS (U of Kansas)
Boone County, MO (U of Missouri)
Monroe County, IN (U of Indiana)
Lafayette County, MS (Ole Miss)
Brazos County, TX (Texas A&M)

Hell, even Tuscaloosa County, AL trended left. I wasn't even including any Ivy League schools or others located in big cities that swung left despite the rest of the state like OSU (Columbus), Wisconsin (Madison), and Michigan (Ann Arbor) and so on. So yeah, why did so many college towns swing left despite their proximity to rural areas?

It shows the "young college Bernie fans hate Hillary" narrative was overblown. Also it's no surprise they'd support the candidate who wanted to lower their interest rates and limit debt burden.

[OneJ]

A lot of college kids are brainwashed to hate Republicans.

Yeah right.

Anyways, I guess College educated Whites were a big reason. In the future, if current swings hold the GOP will have a hard time wooing them and long term, could cost them at least one election if not more if rural/working class whites' support for them doesn't hold up as strong as Trump's margins.

[ag]

Trump, of course.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Also, at many campuses, few undergrads register at their campus address, allowing the academic elite and grad students to further skew the results of these places.  (And, Knox, TN is way too big to really be that heavily influenced by UT).  Notice that the young vote was far closer in 2016 than in 2012 or 2008.

[Nym90]

College educated voters swung strongly towards Clinton. Oddly enough, they happen to be particularly numerous in close proximity to universities.

In all seriousness, students themselves don't represent as large of a percentage of the vote in college towns as is often portrayed. University employees, business owners/employees of businesses that are dependent on the university, people who appreciate/support the arts and culture and who are thus attracted to university towns as a place to move, etc. are all almost certainly among the demographics that swung Dem this year.

[Since I'm the mad scientist proclaimed by myself]

A lot of college kids are brainwashed to hate Republicans.

Brainwashing =/= thinking things you don't like.

[RINO Tom]

Also, at many campuses, few undergrads register at their campus address, allowing the academic elite and grad students to further skew the results of these places.  (And, Knox, TN is way too big to really be that heavily influenced by UT).  Notice that the young vote was far closer in 2016 than in 2012 or 2008.

The last thing you want to do to the kid who gave himself a nickname ... is call him by the nickname.

Anyway, the answer is pretty obvious, IMO.  As a resident of Iowa City, I would say (obviously anecdotally) that Republicans from college towns tend to also be more liberal than ones from the South, West or rural areas - the exact type that is probably likely to move to Clinton or at least to Johnson or possibly staying home.  It's not like Oregon and Washington where it's liberal Democrats vs. very conservative Republicans, it's closer to Massachusetts, IMO.  I'd guess the Republicans of Iowa City, Madison, Ann Arbor, Champaign or wherever else are likely closer in cultural mindset to their neighbors than to more culturally conservative Republicans in the rest of the country, so their reason for being Republicans is likely economically driven.

[TJ in Oregon]

At least here in Madison, Trump underperformed Romney by 10-15 points in most of the campus precincts, but a lot of that went to third parties rather than to Hillary.

One of the easiest ways to tell is by comparing Trump's numbers to Ron Johnson's (wards where Trump did better are in red and wards where Johnson did better are in blue):



The campus area stands out. Otherwise the map is a pretty generic map of the class divisions within Madison.

[Tekken_Guy]

College students and millennials hate Trump way more than Hillary, even if they don't like the latter either. They're a heavily liberal democratic generation anyway, supporting gay rights, abortion, feminism, and open immigration policies, which Hillary at least supports even if not as hard as Bernie. They don't see Trump as another conservative politician but as an embodiment of social privilege (rich, white, male, heterosexual, cisgender, Christian) and every -ism and -phobia in the book. The role models and celebrities they look up to in Hollywood are overwhelmingly liberal as well. They may have not been thrilled with the status quo over progression, but they'd take it any day over regression.

In some states, the college towns outdid the big cities in Hillary support -- In Indiana, she did better in Monroe County (with IU) than Marion (with Indianapolis). It's why Austin is Atlas-redder than Houston or Dallas or Madison redder than Milwaukee.

[heatcharger]

Anyway, the answer is pretty obvious, IMO.  As a resident of Iowa City, I would say (obviously anecdotally) that Republicans from college towns tend to also be more liberal than ones from the South, West or rural areas - the exact type that is probably likely to move to Clinton or at least to Johnson or possibly staying home.  It's not like Oregon and Washington where it's liberal Democrats vs. very conservative Republicans, it's closer to Massachusetts, IMO.  I'd guess the Republicans of Iowa City, Madison, Ann Arbor, Champaign or wherever else are likely closer in cultural mindset to their neighbors than to more culturally conservative Republicans in the rest of the country, so their reason for being Republicans is likely economically driven.

Yeah, I think this is probably the correct response. Another thing I thought about was where the students are coming from, because I'm sure Northern Virginia is sending many more of them to Virginia Tech, which is in the heart of Appalachia, than they used to. This probably the same development happening in places like Texas and Georgia, as growing metro populations will send more kids to state colleges.

A lot of college kids are brainwashed to hate Republicans.

lol aren't you in high school or something

[Tintrlvr]

Most of the voters in the big college town counties are adults associated with the university (professors and other university employees and their family members), plus employees of various knowledge industries that locate in college towns because their work is connected to university research programs, not college students.

Sanders did quite poorly with these groups (residents of college towns who are not students) in the 2016 primaries as compared to Obama in the 2008 primaries, which is why Sanders's results in college towns in the primaries were generally pretty mediocre compared to expectations. That makes sense; they're a relatively high-income, reform-oriented and urbane group, which was a positive indicator for Obama in the 2008 primaries but for Clinton in the 2016 primaries.

And they also include a fair minority of Republicans who are mostly moderate and are of exactly the high-education, high-income sort that had significant swings away from Trump in wealthy suburban areas elsewhere.

[King of Kensington]

It would be interesting to see data on how professors voted in the Democratic primary.

[SATW]

Before the election, I had the feeling her margins in counties with college towns would be watered down because of Bernie people and "both candidates suck" types. In reality, a whole slew of counties with college towns, even ones with surrounding rural areas, actually swung left like these:

Albemarle County, VA (UVA)
Montgomery County, VA (Virginia Tech)
Centre County, PA (Penn State)
Clarke County, GA (UGA)
Knox County, TN (U of Tennessee)
Johnson County, IA (U of Iowa)
Aluachua County, FL (U of Florida)
Douglas County, KS (U of Kansas)
Boone County, MO (U of Missouri)
Monroe County, IN (U of Indiana)
Lafayette County, MS (Ole Miss)
Brazos County, TX (Texas A&M)

Hell, even Tuscaloosa County, AL trended left. I wasn't even including any Ivy League schools or others located in big cities that swung left despite the rest of the state like OSU (Columbus), Wisconsin (Madison), and Michigan (Ann Arbor) and so on. So yeah, why did so many college towns swing left despite their proximity to rural areas?

bolded almost always vote democrat on the city and county level, doesnt make sense to have 'em on this list.

[heatcharger]

bolded almost always vote democrat on the city and county level, doesnt make sense to have 'em on this list.

I didn't ask why Hillary won them, I asked why they all swung left.

[NOVA Green]

College educated voters swung strongly towards Clinton. Oddly enough, they happen to be particularly numerous in close proximity to universities.

In all seriousness, students themselves don't represent as large of a percentage of the vote in college towns as is often portrayed. University employees, business owners/employees of businesses that are dependent on the university, people who appreciate/support the arts and culture and who are thus attracted to university towns as a place to move, etc. are all almost certainly among the demographics that swung Dem this year.

Most of the voters in the big college town counties are adults associated with the university (professors and other university employees and their family members), plus employees of various knowledge industries that locate in college towns because their work is connected to university research programs, not college students.

Sanders did quite poorly with these groups (residents of college towns who are not students) in the 2016 primaries as compared to Obama in the 2008 primaries, which is why Sanders's results in college towns in the primaries were generally pretty mediocre compared to expectations. That makes sense; they're a relatively high-income, reform-oriented and urbane group, which was a positive indicator for Obama in the 2008 primaries but for Clinton in the 2016 primaries.

And they also include a fair minority of Republicans who are mostly moderate and are of exactly the high-education, high-income sort that had significant swings away from Trump in wealthy suburban areas elsewhere.

As someone who spent much of my life growing up in a college town, as a townie not gownie, both Nym and Tintrlvr are on the money here....

Despite the stereotypes of Bernie voters as "just a bunch of college kids", reality is that in many college towns Clinton significantly outperformed her '08 Obama primary numbers vs Bernie in '16...

Although Millennials were certainly a key component of the "Bernie Democratic Coalition", the reality is that many of these Millennials were not College students at public Universities and Colleges, but just as likely to be working driving Fork in your local Home Depot, or working part-time in the Hospitality Sector while working on a two year degree from a community college, or a veteran just recently back from a tour overseas in Afghanistan....

The key failure of the Clinton campaign was not being able to communicate to Working-Class voters, including both Middle-Aged and Older Anglos, as well as young Working-Class voters that are much more diverse in terms of ethnicity than "older voters" (45+).

Ok--- let's look at the largest college town in Oregon, Corvallis--- home to the famous Oregon State Beavers.... almost 50% of the adult population is <25 years old, and a college town with 20k students out of a population of 55k residents should be a natural Bernie town....

2008: (28-71 Obama)     +43 Obama
2016: (36-63 Bernie)      +27 Sanders

I could pull up some other towns like Ashland & Monmouth with a huge percentage of college students, and we will see similar results.

Now---- look at the 2016 GE Presidential Election results....

2004: (66-33 D)   +33 D
2008: (72-25 D)   +47 D
2012: (69-25 D)    +44 D
2016: (69-18 D)    +51 D

If we look at Precinct #6, centered right around the dorms and student apartments right near Oregon State University we see the following:

2004: 2.8k Votes (67-31 D)   +36 D
2008: 2.8k Votes (73-24 D)   +49D
2012: 2.9k Votes (71-22 D)    +49 D
2016: 3.1k Votes (69-17 D)    +42 D


Not so impressive in terms of the "college kid vote" both in terms of turnout and margins...

So where were the biggest swing towards Clinton in Corvallis? Not on the College Town part of the City, but rather in the NW Hill neighborhoods homes in the wealthiest precinct, where a significant number of Doctors,Lawyers, Engineers and Senior Administrators/Managers reside that support the largest employers in the City (Oregon State, Good Samaritan Hospital, and Hewlett Packard).

2004: (63-35 D)    +28 D
2008: (72-27 D)    +45 D
2012: (63-31 D)    +32 D
2016: (71-20 D)    +51 D

So at least in this one case study, it appears that the biggest swings against Trump, were not in the most heavily student precincts, but rather in Upper-Middle Class areas that used to vote Republican, and one of the last hold outs in the City....

In fact looking at the lackluster turnout results in the most heavily student precinct in the City, I'm currently leaning more towards the "townie vs gownie" theory.

So, although overall "college towns" swung towards Clinton it is less of a factor of college students, and more that professionals that live and work in these communities, many of whom will frequently vote for Moderate and Liberal Republicans, swung decisively against Trump, despite many of the College Students declining to vote or going 3rd Party as part of either a "clothespin on the nose" or protest vote.

[HAnnA MArin County]

Carbondale, Illinois (SIU-C) actually swung Republican, just as a counterexample.

Maybe just due to higher third party voters?

[Green Line]

Eastern Illinois University actually swing strongly to Trump and Trump won the township containing the university.

[Del Tachi]

College towns tend to have a high proportion of college-educated Whites, a demographic that Hillary improved with compared to Obama.  I imagine that most of Hillary's improvements were due to these voters, not college students.  A lot of college students remain registered to vote where their parents live, and never switch their voter registration during undergrad.

[Smash255]

Educated voters. The swings on many college campuses might not have been large enough to swing a entire county other than very marginally, considering the actual college student vote is only a small portion of the county vote in most cases.  However, most counties with a large college campus tend to have higher levels of education than the population as a whole.  Those with high levels of education trended very heavily towards Clinton.

[Strudelcutie4427]

Colleges do not give much in the way of balanced points of view. When I attended UNH (Durham cost us the state) I had one conservative professor and he was in business. All the others are crazy left SJW types and when they spout their views to impressionable 18-20 year olds they take it as truth. College kids trend right once they experience the real world and understand that nothing is actually free

[SingingAnalyst]

Educated voters. The swings on many college campuses might not have been large enough to swing a entire county other than very marginally, considering the actual college student vote is only a small portion of the county vote in most cases.  However, most counties with a large college campus tend to have higher levels of education than the population as a whole.  Those with high levels of education trended very heavily towards Clinton.

True, educated voters saw Trump as a singularly bad choice. For example, Romney got 11% in Cambridge, MA; Trump got only 6.3%.

[SingingAnalyst]

Before the election, I had the feeling her margins in counties with college towns would be watered down because of Bernie people and "both candidates suck" types. In reality, a whole slew of counties with college towns, even ones with surrounding rural areas, actually swung left like these:

Albemarle County, VA (UVA)
Montgomery County, VA (Virginia Tech)
Centre County, PA (Penn State)
Clarke County, GA (UGA)
Knox County, TN (U of Tennessee)
Johnson County, IA (U of Iowa)
Aluachua County, FL (U of Florida)
Douglas County, KS (U of Kansas)
Boone County, MO (U of Missouri)
Monroe County, IN (U of Indiana)
Lafayette County, MS (Ole Miss)
Brazos County, TX (Texas A&M)

Hell, even Tuscaloosa County, AL trended left. I wasn't even including any Ivy League schools or others located in big cities that swung left despite the rest of the state like OSU (Columbus), Wisconsin (Madison), and Michigan (Ann Arbor) and so on. So yeah, why did so many college towns swing left despite their proximity to rural areas?

I suspect Sanders voters without a college degree were much more prone to be anti-both candidates as those with a college degree. Michigan among other states had plenty of Sanders-Trump voters-- but they tended to be anywhere except the university towns.