2016: Gary Johnson debates
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  2016: Gary Johnson debates
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Author Topic: 2016: Gary Johnson debates  (Read 1740 times)
BigVic
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« on: January 08, 2017, 10:47:57 PM »

If Gary Johnson was invited to the first presidential debates, will it change the course of the election? Discuss with maps
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frostyfreeze
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« Reply #1 on: January 30, 2017, 02:32:14 PM »

Trump would still win nothing changes.
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Kleine Scheiße
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« Reply #2 on: February 21, 2017, 02:24:45 PM »



Trump wins, just barely.
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CommanderClash
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« Reply #3 on: February 21, 2017, 03:08:08 PM »

Johnson embarrasses himself in front of 80 million viewers and support for the Libertarian ticket collapses nation-wide.

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RC (a la Frémont)
ReaganClinton20XX
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« Reply #4 on: February 21, 2017, 09:28:01 PM »

Fmr. SoS. Hillary Clinton/Sen. Tim Kaine - 268 Electoral Votes, 45.5%
Busineussman Donald J. Trump/Governor Mike Pence - 264 Electoral Votes, 39.4%
Fmr. CIA Operations Officer D. Evan McMullin/Activist Mindy Finn - 6 Electoral Votes, 5.7%
Fmr. Governor Gary Johnson/Fmr Governor William Weld - 7.4%
Others: 2%

Assuming Johnson has no more gaffes, he snatches up quite a bit of support from Trump, and helps McMullin win Utah, causing the election to be contested. The House of Representatives gives Clinton a majority of votes, with some Republicans giving her and McMullin a few votes instead of Trump. Meanwhile, the Senate chooses Mike Pence.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #5 on: February 23, 2017, 05:17:41 PM »

yeah Gary's support would drop like a brick.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #6 on: March 02, 2017, 03:00:46 PM »

yeah Gary's support would drop like a brick.

Nah, I don't think that's how it works.  Unless he eats a baby on live TV or something, the mere fact that he was invited to appear on stage with the other two would elevate him as someone who some unhappy-with-both-major-parties voters would consider voting for.

So even with a very bad performance, I think he would have done a bit better on Nov. 8 than he does IRL with no debate appearance.
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Eharding
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« Reply #7 on: March 02, 2017, 03:18:49 PM »

yeah Gary's support would drop like a brick.

Nah, I don't think that's how it works.  Unless he eats a baby on live TV or something, the mere fact that he was invited to appear on stage with the other two would elevate him as someone who some unhappy-with-both-major-parties voters would consider voting for.

So even with a very bad performance, I think he would have done a bit better on Nov. 8 than he does IRL with no debate appearance.


-John Anderson, though
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erſatz-york
SlippingJimmy
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« Reply #8 on: March 02, 2017, 05:56:01 PM »


And why does the House choose Clinton over Trump or McMullin?

Even if the GOP loses its House majority, they still probably control a majority of House delegations. IMO, no GOP representative with a view towards his/her political future would vote for Clinton. At least not in an environment like this.
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CommanderClash
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« Reply #9 on: March 02, 2017, 06:57:05 PM »

yeah Gary's support would drop like a brick.

Nah, I don't think that's how it works.  Unless he eats a baby on live TV or something, the mere fact that he was invited to appear on stage with the other two would elevate him as someone who some unhappy-with-both-major-parties voters would consider voting for.

So even with a very bad performance, I think he would have done a bit better on Nov. 8 than he does IRL with no debate appearance.


Normally, you would be right but we're talking about a guy who does stuff like this, as well as this kind of...thing. I really think you'd see a stampede of uneasy Johnson supporters back to the Republican ticket.
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Pericles
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« Reply #10 on: March 02, 2017, 11:26:50 PM »

yeah Gary's support would drop like a brick.

Nah, I don't think that's how it works.  Unless he eats a baby on live TV or something, the mere fact that he was invited to appear on stage with the other two would elevate him as someone who some unhappy-with-both-major-parties voters would consider voting for.

So even with a very bad performance, I think he would have done a bit better on Nov. 8 than he does IRL with no debate appearance.



Normally, you would be right but we're talking about a guy who does stuff like this, as well as this kind of...thing. I really think you'd see a stampede of uneasy Johnson supporters back to the Republican ticket.

It's not like Trump or Clinton were stable or well-liked, and Johnson just being on that stag would convince many to take a third option rather than two historically unpopular candidates.
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West_Midlander
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« Reply #11 on: April 30, 2017, 08:17:22 PM »

Johnson gains in popular vote (attaining 6-7%) despites epic gaffes in the debates.
He carries New Mexico narrowly (by a few thousand votes, perhaps in a recount).
Trump still wins.
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RC (a la Frémont)
ReaganClinton20XX
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« Reply #12 on: May 10, 2017, 03:50:18 PM »


And why does the House choose Clinton over Trump or McMullin?

Even if the GOP loses its House majority, they still probably control a majority of House delegations. IMO, no GOP representative with a view towards his/her political future would vote for Clinton. At least not in an environment like this.


Honestly, I'm not sure what I was thinking when I posted it, probably the fact that some Republicans were still riding the anti-Trump train from the pussy tape. Also that the house would never elect an independent. So if the house would've chosen Clinton, it would be by a very narrow vote.
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #13 on: May 10, 2017, 07:06:58 PM »

McMullin endorses Johnson, as do Justin Amash, John Kasich, Rand Paul, Condoleeza Rice, Jeb Bush, Tim Penny, Jerry Brown, Bill Walker, Brian Schweitzer, and Steve Bullock.
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CommanderClash
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« Reply #14 on: May 10, 2017, 07:40:57 PM »

McMullin endorses Johnson, as do Justin Amash, John Kasich, Rand Paul, Condoleeza Rice, Jeb Bush, Tim Penny, Jerry Brown, Bill Walker, Brian Schweitzer, and Steve Bullock.

No they don't.
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RC (a la Frémont)
ReaganClinton20XX
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« Reply #15 on: June 01, 2017, 04:26:21 PM »

McMullin endorses Johnson, as do Justin Amash, John Kasich, Rand Paul, Condoleeza Rice, Jeb Bush, Tim Penny, Jerry Brown, Bill Walker, Brian Schweitzer, and Steve Bullock.

No, I'd say Amash is the most likely. A distant second would be McMullin, John Kasich and Rand Paul at a very distant third.
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