Northern Ireland Assembly Elections: May 2017?

[JerryArkansas]

With the resignation of the Deputy minister and Sein Fein refusing to nominate a replacement, a new election will have to take place.


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[Silent Hunter]

Beat me to it by 11 minutes. Well, here we go again.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

The constituencies have all lost a seat, so it will be harder for the minors to get back in.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Change the title; it's not been called a Parliament since the Fall of Stormont in the 1970s.

[LabourJersey]

Isn't Stormont required to have a coalition government between catholic and protestant parties? If so, what does Sinn Fein get out of this?

[JerryArkansas]

Change the title; it's not been called a Parliament since the Fall of Stormont in the 1970s.

Alright, I didn't know what to call it.  Would Stormont elections suffice?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Change the title; it's not been called a Parliament since the Fall of Stormont in the 1970s.

Alright, I didn't know what to call it.  Would Stormont elections suffice?

It's the Northern Ireland Assembly so 'Assembly Elections' would be about right.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Isn't Stormont required to have a coalition government between catholic and protestant parties? If so, what does Sinn Fein get out of this?

Are you aware of the recent history of Northern Ireland, the civil war, the peace process and the very complex settlement that eventually ended it or not? What they get out of it is public £££ to give to their constituents so that they get re-elected and maintain their power base and careers, same as everyone else.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Incidentally, am I the only one who thinks "Stormont" would be a perfect name for a Tolkien-esque fantasy villain?

[JerryArkansas]

Change the title; it's not been called a Parliament since the Fall of Stormont in the 1970s.

Alright, I didn't know what to call it.  Would Stormont elections suffice?

It's the Northern Ireland Assembly so 'Assembly Elections' would be about right.

Ok.  Northern Ireland is the one area of Britain I really don't have any knowledge over.  Thanks for correcting me, though.  I really do appreciate it, no sarcasm intended.  Will change it now.

[IceAgeComing]

New elections aren't a bad thing in themselves here provided they have a conclusive outcome.  The real issue comes if the result is along the same lines as last May; Foster doesn't resign and Sinn Fein don't go back into government since unless the SDLP decide to do (which may hurt them a hell of a lot) then we're back to direct rule for a time and that's not good for the whole peace process.  I mean I think that if push comes to shove something will happen to keep the Assembly ticking; its in everyone's interests (bar the remnants of the terrorists on both sides who're just waiting for a mess) that the Assembly and the Executive carries on.

If the legislation for the Assembly is anything like the Scotland Act then this new Assembly would only sit for four years, with the next election returning to its normal date in 2021.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Jesus, the last thing May wants is to be directly running Northern Ireland at the moment.

[joevsimp]

The constituencies have all lost a seat, so it will be harder for the minors to get back in.

Is that officially happebing? I thought it was after the boundary changes.

Looking at the candidates elected in last place; SF, DUP and SDLP would reach lose 5 seats (a total disaster for the latter) UUP, Alliance and PBP would each lose 1. Minor party candidates mostly seemed to get through earlier (although it will kill off any chance of gains for them)

Quota is only going up from 14.2% to 16.7% but there could well be a squeeze on all but the two governing parties as they both go hell for leather to come out on top

[IceAgeComing]

The change in the quota might lead to a different set of candidates losing though; different order of elimination might lead to candidates who ended up getting elected as the fifth member getting eliminated earlier than the sixth member since they didn't get surplus transfers, things like that.

[LabourJersey]

Isn't Stormont required to have a coalition government between catholic and protestant parties? If so, what does Sinn Fein get out of this?

Are you aware of the recent history of Northern Ireland, the civil war, the peace process and the very complex settlement that eventually ended it or not? What they get out of it is public £££ to give to their constituents so that they get re-elected and maintain their power base and careers, same as everyone else.

I understand the general gist of the Good Friday Agreement, and the power sharing agreements, but since then I find the whole structure of Stormont to be somewhat difficult to wrap my head around.

One question: why hasn't a First Minister been from Sinn Fein? Is that a political non starter in NI or is that more coincidence that anything?

[Tintrlvr]

Isn't Stormont required to have a coalition government between catholic and protestant parties? If so, what does Sinn Fein get out of this?

Are you aware of the recent history of Northern Ireland, the civil war, the peace process and the very complex settlement that eventually ended it or not? What they get out of it is public £££ to give to their constituents so that they get re-elected and maintain their power base and careers, same as everyone else.

I understand the general gist of the Good Friday Agreement, and the power sharing agreements, but since then I find the whole structure of Stormont to be somewhat difficult to wrap my head around.

One question: why hasn't a First Minister been from Sinn Fein? Is that a political non starter in NI or is that more coincidence that anything?

Generally speaking, because the DUP has more seats (or rather, because unionist parties, as a whole, have more seats than nationalist parties). Sinn Fein (or another nationalist party) could have a First Minister only if nationalists won more seats than unionists, which can't happen at present because the demographics of Northern Ireland favor unionism (there are more Protestants than Catholics). In 20 or 30 years' time, that may be different, as Protestants skew older and Catholics younger (and a majority of under-30s are Catholics). In theory, it could also happen if voters stopped voting as strongly along demographic lines, or if a group like the Alliance or the Greens, which are nominally neither unionist nor nationalist (though most of their voters are Protestants), won away a large chunk of the vote from the unionist parties. But those are fairly unlikely scenarios.

Edit: Apparently the above is not the case, though it would make the most sense in my opinion. Instead, Sinn Fein would just have to win more seats than the DUP, even if nationalists overall won fewer seats than unionists. So, theoretically, if the SDLP fell apart, SF might gain the First Ministership while unionists still held a majority. As a practical matter, it is deeply unlikely that SF will be larger than the DUP in the near-term due to demographic polarization, barring a scenario such as the collapse of the SDLP (which would more likely result in a replacement party of more politically moderate Catholics than a mass migration to SF in any case).

That said, the First Minister and the Deputy First Minister are actually co-equal by law rather than one having more power or authority than the other, so the change would be merely cosmetic.

[Intell]

There really should be a sectarian labour and socialist party in NI, that takes a netural approach on TEH flegs cultural issues of the day.

Guess supporting SDLP, if they still have a reason to exist.

[Tintrlvr]

There really should be a sectarian labour and socialist party in NI, that takes a netural approach on TEH flegs cultural issues of the day.

Guess supporting SDLP, if they still have a reason to exist.

I believe People Before Profit is at least nominally non-sectarian (assume that's what you meant), though as a practical matter they win votes almost exclusively from Catholics.

[TJ in Oregon]

There really should be a sectarian labour and socialist party in NI, that takes a netural approach on TEH flegs cultural issues of the day.

Guess supporting SDLP, if they still have a reason to exist.

I believe People Before Profit is at least nominally non-sectarian (assume that's what you meant), though as a practical matter they win votes almost exclusively from Catholics.

Yup PBP is technically non-sectarian and campaigns for the rise of the proletariat above religious lines, though basically no Protestants vote for them anyway.

[LabourJersey]

Isn't Stormont required to have a coalition government between catholic and protestant parties? If so, what does Sinn Fein get out of this?

Are you aware of the recent history of Northern Ireland, the civil war, the peace process and the very complex settlement that eventually ended it or not? What they get out of it is public £££ to give to their constituents so that they get re-elected and maintain their power base and careers, same as everyone else.

I understand the general gist of the Good Friday Agreement, and the power sharing agreements, but since then I find the whole structure of Stormont to be somewhat difficult to wrap my head around.

One question: why hasn't a First Minister been from Sinn Fein? Is that a political non starter in NI or is that more coincidence that anything?

Generally speaking, because the DUP has more seats (or rather, because unionist parties, as a whole, have more seats than nationalist parties). Sinn Fein (or another nationalist party) could have a First Minister only if nationalists won more seats than unionists, which can't happen at present because the demographics of Northern Ireland favor unionism (there are more Protestants than Catholics). In 20 or 30 years' time, that may be different, as Protestants skew older and Catholics younger (and a majority of under-30s are Catholics). In theory, it could also happen if voters stopped voting as strongly along demographic lines, or if a group like the Alliance or the Greens, which are nominally neither unionist nor nationalist (though most of their voters are Protestants), won away a large chunk of the vote from the unionist parties. But those are fairly unlikely scenarios.

Edit: Apparently the above is not the case, though it would make the most sense in my opinion. Instead, Sinn Fein would just have to win more seats than the DUP, even if nationalists overall won fewer seats than unionists. So, theoretically, if the SDLP fell apart, SF might gain the First Ministership while unionists still held a majority. As a practical matter, it is deeply unlikely that SF will be larger than the DUP in the near-term due to demographic polarization, barring a scenario such as the collapse of the SDLP (which would more likely result in a replacement party of more politically moderate Catholics than a mass migration to SF in any case).

That said, the First Minister and the Deputy First Minister are actually co-equal by law rather than one having more power or authority than the other, so the change would be merely cosmetic.

Thanks for explaining this, Tintrlvr.

[Gary J]

The simplest solution is for the DUP to either get a new leader or support another of their members for First Minister. Are Mrs Foster and her party going to be so stubborn as to let the whole devolution settlement collapse rather than give up on one individual leader?

[Intell]

There really should be a sectarian labour and socialist party in NI, that takes a netural approach on TEH flegs cultural issues of the day.

Guess supporting SDLP, if they still have a reason to exist.

I believe People Before Profit is at least nominally non-sectarian (assume that's what you meant), though as a practical matter they win votes almost exclusively from Catholics.

They still support flying TEH Irish Flag. I want a party, like Alliance, though not nominally unionist, and not for liberalism but socialist labourism that can appeal to both parties.

[ObserverIE]

The simplest solution is for the DUP to either get a new leader or support another of their members for First Minister. Are Mrs Foster and her party going to be so stubborn as to let the whole devolution settlement collapse rather than give up on one individual leader?

It's the DUP.

[Polkergeist]

Has anyone done 2016 election notional seat figures for a 90 seat assembly?

[IceAgeComing]

There are a few different figures that I've seen; none will be 100% accurate since parties will have different strategies for five seat constituencies than they would six seaters - different numbers of candidates standing in each seat; different vote management strategies, that sort of thing.  Its certainly much more complex than just dropping the sixth candidate elected in each seat.