How would the Canadian provinces vote in the US elections?

[King of Kensington]

Among US states, only New York approaches Canadian-type levels of unionization.

[Goldwater]

Wouldn't Ontario be more of a "swing state" due to its large cities and large amount of rural population, also given the fact much of Ontario votes Conservative outside of Toronto?

And then obviously the Maritime provinces would be solidly Democratic. Prairies would be solid Republican and British Columbia would be a tossup given that it is mainly conservative outside of Vancouver.

Quebec is obviously solid Democratic, but Republicans could win there in a landslide.

Couldn't the same be said of Oregon and Washington? I don't think most people would consider those states "tossup".

[publicunofficial]

Wouldn't Ontario be more of a "swing state" due to its large cities and large amount of rural population, also given the fact much of Ontario votes Conservative outside of Toronto?

And then obviously the Maritime provinces would be solidly Democratic. Prairies would be solid Republican and British Columbia would be a tossup given that it is mainly conservative outside of Vancouver.

Quebec is obviously solid Democratic, but Republicans could win there in a landslide.

Couldn't the same be said of Oregon and Washington? I don't think most people would consider those states "tossup".

Yeah it's like saying New York is a toss-up if you don't count NYC.

[King of Kensington]

Wouldn't Ontario be more of a "swing state" due to its large cities and large amount of rural population, also given the fact much of Ontario votes Conservative outside of Toronto?

And then obviously the Maritime provinces would be solidly Democratic. Prairies would be solid Republican and British Columbia would be a tossup given that it is mainly conservative outside of Vancouver.

Quebec is obviously solid Democratic, but Republicans could win there in a landslide.

Are you assuming Canada was voting in a US election for the first time, or that it had developed as a part of the US?

[MaxQue]

Wouldn't Ontario be more of a "swing state" due to its large cities and large amount of rural population, also given the fact much of Ontario votes Conservative outside of Toronto?

Ontarian cities vote Liberal, rural areas vote Conservative, the overall winner is determinated by who wins the suburbs of Toronto.

Trump did quite bad in suburbs, so it would have voted Clinton.

[RI]

I made this a few years back: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=172337.msg3706529#msg3706529

[Sol]

I made this a few years back: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=172337.msg3706529#msg3706529

The image don't work.

[cinyc]

I wonder about the 2016 Democratic Primaries. Where would Clinton and Sanders have won out?

I feel like Bernie would do strongest in Montreal. He'd probably also win places like Windsor, Winnipeg, Edmonton, and Kingston.

Clinton would probably win Toronto, Vancouver, Surrey, and Ottawa.

Just so happens we did polling on this. Clinton would've won:

all polling has shown that Clinton would've won in a landslide in every province.

The better question is how the Canadian provinces had voted if they actually we're American, had a common history, culture etc with the USA.

Yeah. In that case, I'm pretty sure that AB, SK and MB at least would be solid Atlas-blue. BC and ON would probably be reliably Democratic. The Maritimes might have politics similar to Maine (I could even see Republicans winning NB in the right context). Québec is a complete mystery.

No way the Republicans could win New Brunswick. The Republicans would do about as well with actual, speak-French-at-home Francophones as they do with blacks. Anglo New Brunswick would be the most Republican part of the Maritimes, but it wouldn't be enough for the Republicans to win New Brunswick overall. Newfoundland might have voted for Trump, though, despite a generally solid Democratic tradition (definitely Obama in 2008 and 2012 and also Kerry, Gore, etc.), and it's possible PEI would generally be a Republican-leaning province but hard to predict. Nova Scotia would be solidly Democratic, with a history similar to Rhode Island.

Quebec and Ontario are solidly Democratic. Manitoba also is Democratic; Winnipeg outvotes the southern hinterland, and the northern hinterland is solidly Democratic. Saskatchewan is historically Democratic but Republican-leaning now, though better for the Democrats than the Dakotas (might have voted for Obama in 2008 but not in 2012, solid Trump in 2016). Alberta is solidly Republican. British Columbia is polarized but solidly Democratic (like Washington and Oregon).

Yukon probably votes about like Alaska, so overall Republican but also quite swingy. Northwest Territories and Nunavut are solidly Democratic.

Yukon is heavily unionized, so it would not be Republican.

Yukon only has a population of about 34,000.  It would probably be a territory with 0 electoral votes if it were part of the US.  The Northwest Territories and Nunavut would have the same status.  Heck, PEI would probably need to be combined with New Brunswick or Nova Scotia if it were admitted to the US today.  That might be a different story if it were a long-standing state, though.

To answer the initial question, if the Canadian provinces were admitted to the US at or before the same time they became part of Canada, Trump would have easily won Alberta and Saskatchewan.  Clinton would have easily won Ontario, Quebec, British Columbia and Nova Scotia.  Manitoba, New Brunswick, Prince Edward Island and Newfoundland and Labrador would have been close.  Manitoba could vote like North Dakota - or Minnesota, depending on how Winnipeg developed politically as part of the U.S.  New Brunswick would be an extension of ME-02 with some French influence - which would win out is unclear.  I suspect Trump would have won PEI and Newfoundland.

If the provinces became states in 2016, Trump would have lost all 10.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I wonder about the 2016 Democratic Primaries. Where would Clinton and Sanders have won out?

I feel like Bernie would do strongest in Montreal. He'd probably also win places like Windsor, Winnipeg, Edmonton, and Kingston.

Clinton would probably win Toronto, Vancouver, Surrey, and Ottawa.

Just so happens we did polling on this. Clinton would've won:

all polling has shown that Clinton would've won in a landslide in every province.

The better question is how the Canadian provinces had voted if they actually we're American, had a common history, culture etc with the USA.

Yeah. In that case, I'm pretty sure that AB, SK and MB at least would be solid Atlas-blue. BC and ON would probably be reliably Democratic. The Maritimes might have politics similar to Maine (I could even see Republicans winning NB in the right context). Québec is a complete mystery.

No way the Republicans could win New Brunswick. The Republicans would do about as well with actual, speak-French-at-home Francophones as they do with blacks. Anglo New Brunswick would be the most Republican part of the Maritimes, but it wouldn't be enough for the Republicans to win New Brunswick overall. Newfoundland might have voted for Trump, though, despite a generally solid Democratic tradition (definitely Obama in 2008 and 2012 and also Kerry, Gore, etc.), and it's possible PEI would generally be a Republican-leaning province but hard to predict. Nova Scotia would be solidly Democratic, with a history similar to Rhode Island.

Quebec and Ontario are solidly Democratic. Manitoba also is Democratic; Winnipeg outvotes the southern hinterland, and the northern hinterland is solidly Democratic. Saskatchewan is historically Democratic but Republican-leaning now, though better for the Democrats than the Dakotas (might have voted for Obama in 2008 but not in 2012, solid Trump in 2016). Alberta is solidly Republican. British Columbia is polarized but solidly Democratic (like Washington and Oregon).

Yukon probably votes about like Alaska, so overall Republican but also quite swingy. Northwest Territories and Nunavut are solidly Democratic.

Yukon is heavily unionized, so it would not be Republican.

That's probably largely name recognition. Note that there's little difference between the provinces.

[Boston Bread]

I made this a few years back: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=172337.msg3706529#msg3706529

The image don't work.

realisticidealist's map's are gone, but we have some data to get an idea of what the map looked like. This was all from RI's model on the 2012 pres election and 2011 Canadian election.

If Canada voted in US elections:

Alberta: Romney 59.78%, Obama 38.12%
British Columbia: Obama 60.60%, Romney 37.10%
Manitoba: Romney 52.10%, Obama 45.72%
New Brunswick: Obama 53.62%, Romney 44.39%
Newfoundland and Labrador: Romney 66.54%, Obama 31.31%
Northwest Territories: Romney 52.46%, Obama 45.45%
Nova Scotia: Romney 57.59%, Obama 40.31%
Nunavut: Obama 66.30%, Romney 31.62%
Ontario: Obama 53.28%, Romney 44.66%
Prince Edward Island: Romney 58.92%, Obama 39.00%
Quebec: Obama 85.78%, Romney 12.38%
Saskatchewan: Romney 64.38%, Obama 33.47%
Yukon Territory: Romney 59.40%, Obama 38.52%

If the US voted in Canadian elections:

Top counties for each party:

Conservative:
1. Blaine, Nebraska - 95.79%
2. Carter, Nebraska - 94.66%
3. Wheeler, Nebraska - 94.35%
4. Rock, Nebraska - 94.35%
5. Liberty, Montana - 92.11%
6. Grant, Nebraska - 91.80%
7. Petroleum, Montana - 91.66%
8. Loup, Nebraska - 91.41%
9. Keya Paha, Nebraska - 91.12%
10. Powder River, Montana - 89.54%

Liberal:
1. Buffalo, South Dakota - 54.67%
2. Wilcox, Alabama - 53.70%
3. Ziebach, South Dakota - 53.25%
4. Wade Hampton, Alaska - 52.39%
5. New York, New York - 49.27%
6. Clay, Kentucky - 48.89%
7. Allendale, South Carolina - 47.94%
8. Fairfield, Connecticut - 47.07%
9. Hudson, New Jersey - 47.04%
10. Yukon-Koyukuk, Alaska - 46.42%

NDP:
1. Elliott, Kentucky - 64.17%
2. Carter, Kentucky - 59.79%
3. Potter, Pennsylvania - 55.98%
4. Morgan, Kentucky - 55.85%
5. Douglas, Missouri - 55.29%
6. Culberson, Texas - 54.42%
7. Quitman, Georgia - 54.19%
8. Tazewell, Virginia - 53.41%
9. Fulton, New York - 52.25%
10. Johnson, Kentucky - 51.59%