How would the Canadian provinces vote in the US elections?

[Tekken_Guy]

If th Canadian provinces were U.S. states how would they have voted for president?

[King of Kensington]

In 2016 specifically?

[Hatman 🍁]

all polling has shown that Clinton would've won in a landslide in every province.

[DC Al Fine]

all polling has shown that Clinton would've won in a landslide in every province.

The better question is how the Canadian provinces had voted if they actually we're American, had a common history, culture etc with the USA.

[Antonio the Sixth]

all polling has shown that Clinton would've won in a landslide in every province.

The better question is how the Canadian provinces had voted if they actually we're American, had a common history, culture etc with the USA.

Yeah. In that case, I'm pretty sure that AB, SK and MB at least would be solid Atlas-blue. BC and ON would probably be reliably Democratic. The Maritimes might have politics similar to Maine (I could even see Republicans winning NB in the right context). Québec is a complete mystery.

[Mr. Morden]

Even if each province was a separate state, with their share of members in the House plus two Senators, they wouldn't have enough electoral votes to have swung the election to Clinton, even if all of them had voted for her.  Though that would have made it close enough that Michigan flipping on its own would have thrown the race to Clinton.

2000's a different story, of course.  Even if the Prairie Provinces had voted Bush, the rest of Canada voting Gore would be more than enough to give Gore the election.

[Gass3268]

all polling has shown that Clinton would've won in a landslide in every province.

The better question is how the Canadian provinces had voted if they actually we're American, had a common history, culture etc with the USA.

Yeah. In that case, I'm pretty sure that AB, SK and MB at least would be solid Atlas-blue. BC and ON would probably be reliably Democratic. The Maritimes might have politics similar to Maine (I could even see Republicans winning NB in the right context). Québec is a complete mystery.

MB might be a bit more like Minnesota or Wisconsin.

[TDAS04]

Maybe BC would be like WA and OR; firmly Democratic due to populated coastal area but with a vast, Republican interior.

[Intell]

all polling has shown that Clinton would've won in a landslide in every province.

The better question is how the Canadian provinces had voted if they actually we're American, had a common history, culture etc with the USA.

Yeah. In that case, I'm pretty sure that AB, SK and MB at least would be solid Atlas-blue. BC and ON would probably be reliably Democratic. The Maritimes might have politics similar to Maine (I could even see Republicans winning NB in the right context). Québec is a complete mystery.

MB and SK would be democratic, imo. It was the home to the NDP, and socialist movements.

[VPH]

Nova Scotia would probably have swung towards Trump

[Since I'm the mad scientist proclaimed by myself]

all polling has shown that Clinton would've won in a landslide in every province.

The better question is how the Canadian provinces had voted if they actually we're American, had a common history, culture etc with the USA.

Yeah. In that case, I'm pretty sure that AB, SK and MB at least would be solid Atlas-blue. BC and ON would probably be reliably Democratic. The Maritimes might have politics similar to Maine (I could even see Republicans winning NB in the right context). Québec is a complete mystery.

MB and SK would be democratic, imo. It was the home to the NDP, and socialist movements.

So was Oklahoma.

[Tintrlvr]

all polling has shown that Clinton would've won in a landslide in every province.

The better question is how the Canadian provinces had voted if they actually we're American, had a common history, culture etc with the USA.

Yeah. In that case, I'm pretty sure that AB, SK and MB at least would be solid Atlas-blue. BC and ON would probably be reliably Democratic. The Maritimes might have politics similar to Maine (I could even see Republicans winning NB in the right context). Québec is a complete mystery.

No way the Republicans could win New Brunswick. The Republicans would do about as well with actual, speak-French-at-home Francophones as they do with blacks. Anglo New Brunswick would be the most Republican part of the Maritimes, but it wouldn't be enough for the Republicans to win New Brunswick overall. Newfoundland might have voted for Trump, though, despite a generally solid Democratic tradition (definitely Obama in 2008 and 2012 and also Kerry, Gore, etc.), and it's possible PEI would generally be a Republican-leaning province but hard to predict. Nova Scotia would be solidly Democratic, with a history similar to Rhode Island.

Quebec and Ontario are solidly Democratic. Manitoba also is Democratic; Winnipeg outvotes the southern hinterland, and the northern hinterland is solidly Democratic. Saskatchewan is historically Democratic but Republican-leaning now, though better for the Democrats than the Dakotas (might have voted for Obama in 2008 but not in 2012, solid Trump in 2016). Alberta is solidly Republican. British Columbia is polarized but solidly Democratic (like Washington and Oregon).

Yukon probably votes about like Alaska, so overall Republican but also quite swingy. Northwest Territories and Nunavut are solidly Democratic.

[Intell]

all polling has shown that Clinton would've won in a landslide in every province.

The better question is how the Canadian provinces had voted if they actually we're American, had a common history, culture etc with the USA.

Yeah. In that case, I'm pretty sure that AB, SK and MB at least would be solid Atlas-blue. BC and ON would probably be reliably Democratic. The Maritimes might have politics similar to Maine (I could even see Republicans winning NB in the right context). Québec is a complete mystery.

MB and SK would be democratic, imo. It was the home to the NDP, and socialist movements.

So was Oklahoma.

It would be a version of MN, then like Oklahoma.

[parochial boy]

If the American experience is anything to go by, it is highly unlikely that Quebec would have been able to remain Francophone.

Quebec would probably be reliably democratic to say the least though, on the basis that it has two large cities in Montreal, where the metro already makes up half the province's population; and Quebec City.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Both times Obama won every county that touches Quebec, most of them by double digits. In an epic collapse, Hillary only won 3 out of the 11 of them. So I could see some huge swings to Trump in neighboring areas of Quebec.

[VPH]

I wonder about the 2016 Democratic Primaries. Where would Clinton and Sanders have won out?

I feel like Bernie would do strongest in Montreal. He'd probably also win places like Windsor, Winnipeg, Edmonton, and Kingston.

Clinton would probably win Toronto, Vancouver, Surrey, and Ottawa.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I wonder about the 2016 Democratic Primaries. Where would Clinton and Sanders have won out?

I feel like Bernie would do strongest in Montreal. He'd probably also win places like Windsor, Winnipeg, Edmonton, and Kingston.

Clinton would probably win Toronto, Vancouver, Surrey, and Ottawa.

Wouldn't Vancouver vote Bernie in a blowout like Portland and Seattle?

[Hatman 🍁]

I wonder about the 2016 Democratic Primaries. Where would Clinton and Sanders have won out?

I feel like Bernie would do strongest in Montreal. He'd probably also win places like Windsor, Winnipeg, Edmonton, and Kingston.

Clinton would probably win Toronto, Vancouver, Surrey, and Ottawa.

Just so happens we did polling on this. Clinton would've won:

all polling has shown that Clinton would've won in a landslide in every province.

The better question is how the Canadian provinces had voted if they actually we're American, had a common history, culture etc with the USA.

Yeah. In that case, I'm pretty sure that AB, SK and MB at least would be solid Atlas-blue. BC and ON would probably be reliably Democratic. The Maritimes might have politics similar to Maine (I could even see Republicans winning NB in the right context). Québec is a complete mystery.

No way the Republicans could win New Brunswick. The Republicans would do about as well with actual, speak-French-at-home Francophones as they do with blacks. Anglo New Brunswick would be the most Republican part of the Maritimes, but it wouldn't be enough for the Republicans to win New Brunswick overall. Newfoundland might have voted for Trump, though, despite a generally solid Democratic tradition (definitely Obama in 2008 and 2012 and also Kerry, Gore, etc.), and it's possible PEI would generally be a Republican-leaning province but hard to predict. Nova Scotia would be solidly Democratic, with a history similar to Rhode Island.

Quebec and Ontario are solidly Democratic. Manitoba also is Democratic; Winnipeg outvotes the southern hinterland, and the northern hinterland is solidly Democratic. Saskatchewan is historically Democratic but Republican-leaning now, though better for the Democrats than the Dakotas (might have voted for Obama in 2008 but not in 2012, solid Trump in 2016). Alberta is solidly Republican. British Columbia is polarized but solidly Democratic (like Washington and Oregon).

Yukon probably votes about like Alaska, so overall Republican but also quite swingy. Northwest Territories and Nunavut are solidly Democratic.

Yukon is heavily unionized, so it would not be Republican.

[King of Kensington]

On the GOP side, I wonder if Trump would have trouble with Mennonites (who I suspect would gone for Cruz) and Ukrainians (Putin/Russia) on the Prairies.

[Hatman 🍁]

In the same poll, we had Trump winning everywhere. I didn't bother making a map.

National results were:
Trump: 27%
Cruz: 17%
Rubio: 13%
Bush: 9%

Bush had his best numbers in Atlantic Canada and the Prairies for some reason
Cruz had his best numbers in Alberta (hmm wonder why?) and the Prairies. He was still one point lower than Trump in Alberta (27-26).
Trump and Rubio had similar numbers across the country, except Trump was low in Quebec (17%), but still ahead of everyone else.

[King of Kensington]

In Toronto, Parkdale-High Park, Davenport and Toronto-Danforth would have been Sanders strongholds. University-Rosedale would have been split; Fort York and TC would have gone for Hillary. St. Paul's, Eglinton-Lawrence and DVW would have been for Hillary, as would the northwest of the city and probably Scarborough too.

Sikhs I suspect would have been a pro-Sanders minority group.

[(Still) muted by Kalwejt until March 31]

Sikhs I suspect would have been a pro-Sanders minority group.

-They definitely were in my precinct in MI.

[VPH]

Is there any logic to the idea that perhaps places where Liberals perform way better than the NDP would be more Clinton areas and where the NDP generally does (historically did) better in would be more amenable to Sanders?

[justfollowingtheelections]

If Canada were to join the United States and they were told that the US don't have universal healthcare they would all vote for Bernie.

[Tintrlvr]

I wonder about the 2016 Democratic Primaries. Where would Clinton and Sanders have won out?

I feel like Bernie would do strongest in Montreal. He'd probably also win places like Windsor, Winnipeg, Edmonton, and Kingston.

Clinton would probably win Toronto, Vancouver, Surrey, and Ottawa.

Just so happens we did polling on this. Clinton would've won:

all polling has shown that Clinton would've won in a landslide in every province.

The better question is how the Canadian provinces had voted if they actually we're American, had a common history, culture etc with the USA.

Yeah. In that case, I'm pretty sure that AB, SK and MB at least would be solid Atlas-blue. BC and ON would probably be reliably Democratic. The Maritimes might have politics similar to Maine (I could even see Republicans winning NB in the right context). Québec is a complete mystery.

No way the Republicans could win New Brunswick. The Republicans would do about as well with actual, speak-French-at-home Francophones as they do with blacks. Anglo New Brunswick would be the most Republican part of the Maritimes, but it wouldn't be enough for the Republicans to win New Brunswick overall. Newfoundland might have voted for Trump, though, despite a generally solid Democratic tradition (definitely Obama in 2008 and 2012 and also Kerry, Gore, etc.), and it's possible PEI would generally be a Republican-leaning province but hard to predict. Nova Scotia would be solidly Democratic, with a history similar to Rhode Island.

Quebec and Ontario are solidly Democratic. Manitoba also is Democratic; Winnipeg outvotes the southern hinterland, and the northern hinterland is solidly Democratic. Saskatchewan is historically Democratic but Republican-leaning now, though better for the Democrats than the Dakotas (might have voted for Obama in 2008 but not in 2012, solid Trump in 2016). Alberta is solidly Republican. British Columbia is polarized but solidly Democratic (like Washington and Oregon).

Yukon probably votes about like Alaska, so overall Republican but also quite swingy. Northwest Territories and Nunavut are solidly Democratic.

Yukon is heavily unionized, so it would not be Republican.

Alaska has the third-highest union membership in the U.S. (after New York and Hawaii). In a circumstance where Yukon is historically part of the U.S.'s political culture, it's hard to imagine it being too much different from Alaska, though probably at least somewhat less Republican owing to the lack of a Mat-Su-like area.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Union_affiliation_by_U.S._state