Wouldn't Ontario be more of a "swing state" due to its large cities and large amount of rural population, also given the fact much of Ontario votes Conservative outside of Toronto?
And then obviously the Maritime provinces would be solidly Democratic. Prairies would be solid Republican and British Columbia would be a tossup given that it is mainly conservative outside of Vancouver.
Quebec is obviously solid Democratic, but Republicans could win there in a landslide.
Couldn't the same be said of Oregon and Washington? I don't think most people would consider those states "tossup".
Yeah it's like saying New York is a toss-up if you don't count NYC.