I wonder about the 2016 Democratic Primaries. Where would Clinton and Sanders have won out?
I feel like Bernie would do strongest in Montreal. He'd probably also win places like Windsor, Winnipeg, Edmonton, and Kingston.
Clinton would probably win Toronto, Vancouver, Surrey, and Ottawa.
Just so happens we did polling on this. Clinton would've won:
all polling has shown that Clinton would've won in a landslide in every province.
The better question is how the Canadian provinces had voted if they actually we're American, had a common history, culture etc with the USA.
Yeah. In that case, I'm pretty sure that AB, SK and MB at least would be solid Atlas-blue. BC and ON would probably be reliably Democratic. The Maritimes might have politics similar to Maine (I could even see Republicans winning NB in the right context). Québec is a complete mystery.
No way the Republicans could win New Brunswick. The Republicans would do about as well with actual, speak-French-at-home Francophones as they do with blacks. Anglo New Brunswick would be the most Republican part of the Maritimes, but it wouldn't be enough for the Republicans to win New Brunswick overall. Newfoundland might have voted for Trump, though, despite a generally solid Democratic tradition (definitely Obama in 2008 and 2012 and also Kerry, Gore, etc.), and it's possible PEI would generally be a Republican-leaning province but hard to predict. Nova Scotia would be solidly Democratic, with a history similar to Rhode Island.
Quebec and Ontario are solidly Democratic. Manitoba also is Democratic; Winnipeg outvotes the southern hinterland, and the northern hinterland is solidly Democratic. Saskatchewan is historically Democratic but Republican-leaning now, though better for the Democrats than the Dakotas (might have voted for Obama in 2008 but not in 2012, solid Trump in 2016). Alberta is solidly Republican. British Columbia is polarized but solidly Democratic (like Washington and Oregon).
Yukon probably votes about like Alaska, so overall Republican but also quite swingy. Northwest Territories and Nunavut are solidly Democratic.
Yukon is heavily unionized, so it would not be Republican.
Yukon only has a population of about 34,000. It would probably be a territory with 0 electoral votes if it were part of the US. The Northwest Territories and Nunavut would have the same status. Heck, PEI would probably need to be combined with New Brunswick or Nova Scotia if it were admitted to the US today. That might be a different story if it were a long-standing state, though.
To answer the initial question, if the Canadian provinces were admitted to the US at or before the same time they became part of Canada, Trump would have easily won Alberta and Saskatchewan. Clinton would have easily won Ontario, Quebec, British Columbia and Nova Scotia. Manitoba, New Brunswick, Prince Edward Island and Newfoundland and Labrador would have been close. Manitoba could vote like North Dakota - or Minnesota, depending on how Winnipeg developed politically as part of the U.S. New Brunswick would be an extension of ME-02 with some French influence - which would win out is unclear. I suspect Trump would have won PEI and Newfoundland.
If the provinces became states in 2016, Trump would have lost all 10.
