Wouldn't Ontario be more of a "swing state" due to its large cities and large amount of rural population, also given the fact much of Ontario votes Conservative outside of Toronto?
And then obviously the Maritime provinces would be solidly Democratic. Prairies would be solid Republican and British Columbia would be a tossup given that it is mainly conservative outside of Vancouver.
Quebec is obviously solid Democratic, but Republicans could win there in a landslide.
Are you assuming Canada was voting in a US election for the first time, or that it had developed as a part of the US?