Trump could win Ohio by 20 points if he runs in 2020

[ClevelandFan7]

Just look. He won here by around 8 points in 2016: MORE THAN QUADRUPLE BUSH'S WIN IN 2004. Trump won Dayton for crying out loud! Trump for some reason fell behind in Cincinnati, but he has massive support there anyways (just look at the rallies). Trump just barely lost Lorain County, home to Elyria.

In 2020, I believe Trump could pick up Cincinnati, Lorain County, maybe even Toledo and Columbus if he really tried. Heck, even Cleveland might be in play! Trump could definitely win here by 20 points in 2020. Just remember, never underestimate this man!

[Liberalrocks]

No

[ClevelandFan7]

No

Mind explaining why?

[DrScholl]

If you are going to troll, at least be less transparent.

[Xing]

lol k

[jamestroll]

Who knows. If he keeps his promises and is not full of scandal during his four years he could well win Ohio by twenty points in 2020.

But its way to early to know or speculate.

[(Still) muted by Kalwejt until March 31]

Trump only won Ohio by as much as he did due to his 1920s GOP economic views. Hoover 1932, after all, nearly won Ohio due to these views. If he demonstrates commitment to them, I think union support for the Dems in OH might erode further. Trump may or may not win Ohio by double digits in 2020, but I suspect he will be unable to win there by the 20 points Portman actually did unless he has a truly horrible opponent -the party system is simply too polarized these days and Trump's personality is simply repellent to too many college-educated voters for him to win by nearly as much as Portman did among them.

By this line of reasoning, we could ask if Trump could lose Texas if he runs in 2020. My guess is still "unlikely".

[GoTfan]

who cares?  As we have seen this election, small wins in a lot of states matter more than big wins in a few.  Ohio is no longer a swing state.  It's full of WWT.  Don't care.

Yes let's just ignore those voters and double down on identity politics.

Seriously, this attitude needs to go away.

[White Trash]

who cares?  As we have seen this election, small wins in a lot of states matter more than big wins in a few.  Ohio is no longer a swing state.  It's full of WWT.  Don't care.

Yes let's just ignore those voters and double down on identity politics.

Seriously, this attitude needs to go away.

No it doesn't.  Clinton should have focused on Georgia and Arizona this election, and ignored Ohio, which was not as close.  You cannot please everyone.  You need to make tough choices.  Ohio is absolutely the wrong decision.  Too much WWT.

She wasn't winning Georgia or Arizona. As much as she put into those states, 2016 was not the year for those states to flip. Oh, and what is this WWT business? I haven't seen that acronym before.

[GoTfan]

who cares?  As we have seen this election, small wins in a lot of states matter more than big wins in a few.  Ohio is no longer a swing state.  It's full of WWT.  Don't care.

Yes let's just ignore those voters and double down on identity politics.

Seriously, this attitude needs to go away.

No it doesn't.  Clinton should have focused on Georgia and Arizona this election, and ignored Ohio, which was not as close.  You cannot please everyone.  You need to make tough choices.  Ohio is absolutely the wrong decision.  Too much WWT.

It's the wrong approach for one. Democrats tried this year with identity politics, and it didn't work. THe nominee should be the one who has the best policy positions. No more of this style over substance nonsense.

[DrScholl]

Ohio was pretty much a non-factor in 2008 and 2012 as far as being all that decisive, it pretty much just was a cake topper and not much more.

I'm tired of hearing about identity politics when it was Trump who played identity politics from the start of his campaign. He needed to be called out on all of his rhetoric, because it was vile. Plenty of people know he was wrong, but chose to vote for him because he promised jobs. If he doesn't deliver big, his 2016 win in Ohio will be a distant afterthought.

The electoral map certainly is changing and it means being less reliant on the Midwest. New opportunities have to be explored, because nothing stays the same.

[Dr. Arch]

Remember friends, it's only identity politics if you target a diversified voting population.

[Person Man]

Remember friends, it's only identity politics if you target a diversified voting population.

[Person Man]

Remember friends, it's only identity politics if you target a diversified voting population.

Oh, I 100% agree, and I think the Corbyn analogies are downright dumb. But referring to the largest demographic group as white trash is ill-advised. D's still need them to hold their Senate seats in 2018.

There is that. We have to actually be competitive in enough states to even make an EV vote matter. But yeah, Majoritarian Identity Politics is White Trash. Not Good! The good thing is that it doesn't have to be that way for enough people so that maybe we can do better down ballot in places in OH, IA, WI, and maybe get an opening in MO and IN.

[White Trash]

I still don't know what WWT means. I hope to god that ProspectiveNavyMan is wrong.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

This forum has proved that VA has the worst Democrats in the country.

[AGA]

who cares?  As we have seen this election, small wins in a lot of states matter more than big wins in a few.  Ohio is no longer a swing state.  It's full of WWT.  Don't care.

Yes let's just ignore those voters and double down on identity politics.

Seriously, this attitude needs to go away.

No it doesn't.  Clinton should have focused on Georgia and Arizona this election, and ignored Ohio, which was not as close.  You cannot please everyone.  You need to make tough choices.  Ohio is absolutely the wrong decision.  Too much WWT.

By appealing to white working class voters, Democrats would not only contest Ohio but also contest Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Minnesota. These states are much more winnable for Democrats than Georgia and Arizona. Hillary Clinton spent a good amount of money in Arizona and tried to appeal to voters in the Atlanta suburbs while she essentially ignored Michigan and Wisconsin. She lost both Michigan and Wisconsin by less than a percentage point while Trump won Arizona and Georgia by 4 or 5 points each. It boggles me why some think that she should have doubled down on this strategy. College educated voters are much less swingy than working class voters.

[LLR]

Or, he couldn't. I'd say this is about as likely as Democrats winning both Georgia and Alaska - plausible, but it'd take a certain kind of landslide. Fact is, Ohio is highly urban and has a decent amount of minorities. The Democrats' floor is probably above 40% (or what a 20 point victory would take). It's unlikely that he'd break through the Republican's ceiling, but who are we to speculate?

And Ohio is very much still a swing state. It's gone Democrat in 2 of the last three elections, and if Democrats move in the right direction in 2020, it will very much be in play, regardless of what Non Swing Loser wants. If we can get minorities to turn out or stop bleeding among working-class whites, it's simple math - Democrats can win here.

[DabbingSanta]

Even if Ohio becomes a solid red state in 2020, I can't see him winning Ohio by 20 points. The minority/black and young vote is going to prevent him from winning the big three Cs - Cleveland, Columbus, and Cincy. These population centers have a pretty significant influence on the vote totals. States Trump won by large margins of +20 overwhelmingly lack large population centers. The larger the rural vote the larger the Republican win margin. I could see rural and suburban areas going heavy Republican if trump manages to be successful for working class votes, which would provide him another solid win, but definitely not +20 points.

[Rjjr77]

Even if Ohio becomes a solid red state in 2020, I can't see him winning Ohio by 20 points. The minority/black and young vote is going to prevent him from winning the big three Cs - Cleveland, Columbus, and Cincy. These population centers have a pretty significant influence on the vote totals. States Trump won by large margins of +20 overwhelmingly lack large population centers. The larger the rural vote the larger the Republican win margin. I could see rural and suburban areas going heavy Republican if trump manages to be successful for working class votes, which would provide him another solid win, but definitely not +20 points.

I don't think he'll win by twenty, but he won Montgomery and almost won mahoning and summit. Winning Hamilton would not be insane

[Bootes Void]

This didn't happen in 2020 but obsviously Ohio could be very similar to Missouri or Indiana in a really bad year for democrats. Trends are still going against them here

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

OH isn't as far gone as IA, IA is more latte than OH and will be back as a battleground in 2024 when Brown is up

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Ohio senate 2024 will be the last competitive statewide general election in Ohio for the forseeable future, I think Sherrod Brown is the underdog, but he wont go down without a fight either.

[lfromnj]

Ohio senate 2024 will be the last competitive statewide general election in Ohio for the forseeable future, I think Sherrod Brown is the underdog, but he wont go down without a fight either.

There are also the state supreme court races but those don't have partisan names on ballot.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Ohio senate 2024 will be the last competitive statewide general election in Ohio for the forseeable future, I think Sherrod Brown is the underdog, but he wont go down without a fight either.

There are also the state supreme court races but those don't have partisan names on ballot.

I don't really count those lmfao