It's possible that Republicans could keep the White House until 2036 or 2040

[Medal506]

I think if Republicans win the White House in 2020 and in 2024 they'll most likely hold on to it until 2036 or even 2040

[Lachi]

yeah no. Party fatigue would be a major issue by the time.

[Person Man]

I have a feeling that if the don't lose the Democrats in 20 or 24...they will lose to Socialists in 28 or 32.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

More than two terms is difficult, and more than three would require a miracle.  Losing it next in 2020, 2024, and 2028 are all roughly equal possibilities, with 2032 or beyond far less likely.

[Roronoa D. Law]

It's very hard for one party to have 3 consecutive terms especially when a recession is likely to happen within the next 8 years.

[DPKdebator]

If the Democrats continue to make more critical mistakes (i.e. abandoning white voters and believing that primarily appearing to minorities is a game winner) then this isn't an impossibility.

[White Trash]

I have a feeling that if the don't lose the Democrats in 20 or 24...they will lose to Socialists in 28 or 32.

Personally I'm hoping for a resurgence of the Share Our Wealth party by then.

[Vosem]

I'm pretty sure a majority of Clinton supporters were white.

But also...there's no way to predict the future. Even 2 years in advance is difficult, 4 years in advance is basically just a fun pastime, and past that it's pointless. Those who are dismissing this forget that this is totally possible and has happened in the past (Democrats controlled the Presidency for 20 years straight, 1933-1953; Republicans controlled it for 24 years straight, 1861-1885; no reason it couldn't happen again), but anybody who's insisting it's likely has their head up their ass.

[TJ in Oregon]

The Democrats would have to do pretty much begin an armed revolt and commit war crimes for that to happen. No way lol.

[Xing]

Sure, just like it's possible that Democrats will win the next six Senate races in Wyoming.

[History505]

I kind of think that is unlikely, with people going to want a change after a certain amount of time.

[Devout Centrist]

No.

I'm mean seriously, how out of touch are you?

[Kingpoleon]

#NoRecessionInThirtyYears

[Figueira]

Theoretically possible but highly unlikely.

[Since I'm the mad scientist proclaimed by myself]

It is typically unwise to make predictions far enough in the future that the race being me vs exttremerepublican (both of us being unknown teenagers right now) is a genuine possibility.

[Sir Mohamed]

It is also possible that pigs learned to fly by 2040.

[Person Man]

I'm pretty sure a majority of Clinton supporters were white.

But also...there's no way to predict the future. Even 2 years in advance is difficult, 4 years in advance is basically just a fun pastime, and past that it's pointless. Those who are dismissing this forget that this is totally possible and has happened in the past (Democrats controlled the Presidency for 20 years straight, 1933-1953; Republicans controlled it for 24 years straight, 1861-1885; no reason it couldn't happen again), but anybody who's insisting it's likely has their head up their ass.

1. The Republicans held it for 24 years straight during and after the Civil War, and era where the Democrats were widely viewed as traitors.

2. The Democrats held it for 20 years straight during the Great Depression and World War Two, where the Republicans were condemned as ruining the economy and isolationists.

I'm not sure what exactly has happened that would lead to a similar condemnation of the Democrats.

Andrew Johnson was a Democrat and most Democratic states couldn't vote again until 1876. They won again in 1884.

1896-1912. That's 16 years and based on the Democrats causing a depression in 1893 and then reorienting into a moderate-liberal party after there not being one between 1877 and 1893.

2016 is like 2000. People wanted change for the sake of change. 1988 would have been the same if there wasn't a lot of positive change already happening. 2008 would of had Obama win the way Bush or Trump did if the crash didn't happen. If the crash happened a year earlier and it escalated from 6 or 7 years of malaise to 10 years of serious problems, Hillary would have won dispite everything else.


I think the Whigs probably went extinct because they couldn't recover from the electorate voting them out from simple want of change. If Democrats can't recover from this election by 22/24, they will probably be reorganized into another center left party....there is just no major disaster for Democrats to excuse not delivering on.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Nah, it's very possible that the Democrats never win again - but by then a new center-left party will have emerged and people will want change. There is no such thing as a permanent majority in Democracies.

[Person Man]

Nah, it's very possible that the Democrats never win again - but by then a new center-left party will have emerged and people will want change. There is no such thing as a permanent majority in Democracies.

People will want change by 2024. Republicans can stay in power by producing it. Say Trump is credited with finally "winning" against terrorism, outsourcing, China, unhealthy aging (Alzheimers, ALS, et al), or cancer. It is a very high standard. Reagan did it by "winning" the Cold War. Simply staying out of war or having a 4% U rate isn't enough.
The only other way you get a third term is if the other party collapses or there is an ongoing crisis.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Of course it's "possible" it's just very, very unlikely: eventually there will be a recession, botched war, or scandal, and the Democrats will come back into power.

[Nyvin]

What exactly is the OP's post based on?   

Also - Most of the growing areas of the country are trending Democratic, while the shrinking ones are trending Republican.   I don't see how it's sustainable that Republicans keep winning.

[/]

I hope you guys realize that the narrative would be completely different right now if like 60,000 people or whatever voted differently in the Midwest.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

It is typically unwise to make predictions far enough in the future that the race being me vs exttremerepublican (both of us being unknown teenagers right now) is a genuine possibility.

I think you're mixing me up with Classic Conservative.  I'm an adult.

[Hammy]

Weren't people saying this just a year ago about the Dems? Have we already forgotten how quickly things can change?

[UncleSam]

Kind of a bait topic but note the antecedent in the OP - if Republicans win in 2020 and 2024, they will probably hold it for an additional 3 - 4 elections. That might well be true - if Texas, Arizona, Florida etc. stay various shades of Red while the Midwest turns light Red as it did this past November (which would presumably be how Republicans would win the 2020 and 2024 elections), then sure that trend long-term might point to a need to re-evaluate messaging within the Democratic party.

The issue is that there's zero evidence to suggest that any of that will happen. Republicans are the favorites to retain the White House by virtue of incumbency in 2020, but the Democrats have to be considered significant favorites in 2024 if Trump holds on (and obviously if he doesn't then Dems get it back even sooner) to the White House in 2020. Additionally, there's good reason to think that the trends in Texas and Georgia in particular (I'm still not convinced Arizona is all that likely to flip Democrat in the foreseeable future) point to Democrat victories in those places in at least one election in the 2020s. And if Texas flips Blue, especially after the reapportionment before 2024, then it doesn't matter that Republicans win the dwindling electoral college votes of the Midwest - Democrats will have the two megastates worth over 100 EVs plus New York, Georgia, and Illinois in that scenario - probably about 165 EVs post-reapportionment in five states, with Florida competitive. You really think Democrats couldn't find 100 EVs throughout the entirety of New England, the greater DC area including Maryland and Virginia, Washington State, Oregon, and Minnesota? No way Repubs will be sweeping those areas.

The point is, of course if a current trend in one direction continues for two more elections it is likely to remain for several more beyond that. But there's just no reason as of now to think that trend will continue.