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Question: How many seats do Democrats pick up in 2018?
0   -25 (43.9%)
1-2   -30 (52.6%)
3+   -2 (3.5%)
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Total Voters: 57

Author Topic: 2018: How many Senate seats do Democrats pick up?  (Read 2735 times)
bronz4141
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« on: January 11, 2017, 06:28:23 pm »
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How many Senate seats do the Democrats pick up in 2018? Do they pick up Arizona, Nevada, Texas, and maybe even Utah?
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« Reply #1 on: January 11, 2017, 06:30:00 pm »
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They will almost certainly lose seats in 2018, given the map.  The big question is whether or not Republicans can get a filibuster-proof majority.
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« Reply #2 on: January 11, 2017, 06:36:14 pm »
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Probably one, maybe two if they're lucky. But they will still probably experience a net loss.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #3 on: January 11, 2017, 06:40:13 pm »
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0 or 1 (my guess would be either NV or AZ, but more likely NV), but still a net loss.
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« Reply #4 on: January 11, 2017, 06:46:44 pm »
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They will almost certainly lose seats in 2018, given the map.  The big question is whether or not Republicans can get a filibuster-proof majority.

I honestly can't see the GOP netting eight.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #5 on: January 11, 2017, 07:45:45 pm »
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They will almost certainly lose seats in 2018, given the map.  The big question is whether or not Republicans can get a filibuster-proof majority.

I honestly can't see the GOP netting eight.

Yeah, not gonna happen with Trump as President.  If Dems can hold the net loss to two or three, they should be quite happy.
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bronz4141
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« Reply #6 on: January 11, 2017, 07:53:29 pm »
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They will almost certainly lose seats in 2018, given the map.  The big question is whether or not Republicans can get a filibuster-proof majority.

I honestly can't see the GOP netting eight.

Yeah, not gonna happen with Trump as President.  If Dems can hold the net loss to two or three, they should be quite happy.

I don't know. Some analysts think that the GOP could have a supermajority in the Senate in 2018. They can pick up OH, MO, IN, MT, WV, ND.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #7 on: January 11, 2017, 08:09:29 pm »
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They will almost certainly lose seats in 2018, given the map.  The big question is whether or not Republicans can get a filibuster-proof majority.

I honestly can't see the GOP netting eight.

Yeah, not gonna happen with Trump as President.  If Dems can hold the net loss to two or three, they should be quite happy.

I don't know. Some analysts think that the GOP could have a supermajority in the Senate in 2018. They can pick up OH, MO, IN, MT, WV, ND.

I don't think Ohio will flip with Trump as President.  Trump will also allow Tester, Manchin, and Heithkemp independently without the weight of a Dem President.  Donnelly and McCaskill, however, I see as almost sure losers.
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« Reply #8 on: January 11, 2017, 08:45:05 pm »
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My guess right now is 1, but it'll almost certainly be 0-2 (not as in net gain, but how many individual seats held by Republicans that they manage to pick up.)
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« Reply #9 on: January 11, 2017, 09:06:59 pm »
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Nevada and maybe if it is a good night Arizona. Everything else is basically off the table for pickup opportunities, except for possibly Texas(still a stretch). Though I expect Democrats to loose Indiana, Missouri and probably North Dakota at the very least.   
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« Reply #10 on: January 11, 2017, 09:30:43 pm »
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Can we "forget the map" Brown is not likely in danger in OH or Machin in WV or Tester in MT just cause Trump won those states doesn't mean they are in trouble case in point Obama wins Mass by like 20 in 08 then in 10 Brown wins Kennedy's seat there isn't a transition. In all likely hood the dems are looking at 2-3 seats in trouble in MO, IN, and ND as the people there are not overly popular while the GOP has 2 seats in trouble NV & AZ (maybe 3 with UT but that's due to third party rumblings)
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« Reply #11 on: January 11, 2017, 09:34:09 pm »
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Can we "forget the map" Brown is not likely in danger in OH or Machin in WV or Tester in MT just cause Trump won those states doesn't mean they are in trouble case in point Obama wins Mass by like 20 in 08 then in 10 Brown wins Kennedy's seat there isn't a transition. In all likely hood the dems are looking at 2-3 seats in trouble in MO, IN, and ND as the people there are not overly popular while the GOP has 2 seats in trouble NV & AZ (maybe 3 with UT but that's due to third party rumblings)

I tend to agree.  I think the Democrats will do way better than people are expecting in 2018.
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« Reply #12 on: January 11, 2017, 09:40:28 pm »
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Counting King and Sanders as if they are Democrats (because they caucus with them and very, very often vote with them), there are 25 Democratic-held seats up and only 8 Republican seats up in 2018. I think it as inevitable that Democrats will have a net loss of seats.
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« Reply #13 on: January 11, 2017, 10:07:47 pm »
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I really don't think the Republicans will pick up 8 seats,  that's pretty much unheard of for a President's party midterm.
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« Reply #14 on: January 11, 2017, 11:07:37 pm »
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I would say the median of likely results is R+4 (this comes from a result where every state votes exactly as they did presidentially, but you add 5% to the Democrats to simulate a midterm backlash), and any result gets progressively less likely the further from that you deviate.

Incidentally, the same method gets you D+30 in the House, which is a (very) narrow takeover. Would be hilarious watching Speaker Pelosi interact with a huge, once-in-a-generation Republican Senate majority (would be the largest since pre-Reagan if the 2018 result is R+4). And the Trump White House, of course.
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« Reply #15 on: January 11, 2017, 11:35:12 pm »
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Assuming this is just gain without factoring in losses, 1-2. I think Democrats will probably pick up Nevada and/or Arizona. 0 is sadly more likely than 3.
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« Reply #16 on: January 12, 2017, 10:17:53 am »
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Tester and Brown aren't safe just because Trump is president (and neither are several other Democratic Senators). I see Democrats are still as overconfident as they were before the election.
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« Reply #17 on: January 12, 2017, 10:29:22 am »
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Tester and Brown aren't safe just because Trump is president (and neither are several other Democratic Senators). I see Democrats are still as overconfident as they were before the election.

They're not "safe," but where are Republicans getting these 8 seats? I guess the five Romney states plus OH and WI bringing them to 7, but then they have to pick up one of PA, FL, VA, and NJ (I think those are the only others that are really in play, although some others might flip if it's a real wave). And they need two of those if Democrats get NV.

So I'll admit that it's possible. But I'd say it's pretty unlikely. I'd say the "big question" is whether they can lock Democrats out of a realistic chance to win the Senate in 2020. (They basically did the equivalent in 2016.)
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« Reply #18 on: January 12, 2017, 10:33:22 am »
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They're not "safe," but where are Republicans getting these 8 seats? I guess the five Romney states plus OH and WI bringing them to 7, but then they have to pick up one of PA, FL, VA, and NJ (I think those are the only others that are really in play, although some others might flip if it's a real wave). And they need two of those if Democrats get NV.

I don't think VA and NJ will be competitive. Maybe ME and MI could be sleeper races. But yeah, PA and FL seem like good targets. Still, it won't be easy for the GOP and I'm not saying that they will get 60 seats in 2018 (even though that is much more likely than Democrats retaking the Senate).
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« Reply #19 on: January 12, 2017, 11:00:01 am »
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LOL.

If it's a Democratic year, they'll only lose net 5 because they pick up Nevada. ^^
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« Reply #20 on: January 12, 2017, 11:08:19 am »
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I think the big question is not how much people hate Trump, but how polarized people are. It's possible that even in an absolute Democratic tsunami year, people in WV and MO and places like that simply aren't willing to vote a Democrat to federal office. However it's also possible that that isn't the case. We'll wait and see, but my point is that Trump's popularity or lack thereof is not the only factor at stake here.
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« Reply #21 on: January 12, 2017, 11:13:17 am »
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They'll probably lose a few seats, if they're lucky they'll hold even.
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« Reply #22 on: January 12, 2017, 11:45:12 am »
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I think the big question is not how much people hate Trump, but how polarized people are. It's possible that even in an absolute Democratic tsunami year, people in WV and MO and places like that simply aren't willing to vote a Democrat to federal office. However it's also possible that that isn't the case. We'll wait and see, but my point is that Trump's popularity or lack thereof is not the only factor at stake here.

I agree, I think polarization has increased so much over the past 10-15 years that certain states are going to be insulated.
I think it's quite possible that Trump's approval could be 25% as of November 2018 (I suppose it can also be 50%, and one can't predict the future but 25 is more likely), but that 25% could be concentrated in a few states, some of which have Dem senators up for re-election.
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« Reply #23 on: January 12, 2017, 12:04:52 pm »
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From -1 to +1
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« Reply #24 on: January 12, 2017, 06:13:40 pm »
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The Democrats gain 8 seats through wizardry, completing the trend of Class 1 to 1000% Democratic
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