2018: How many Senate seats do Democrats pick up?

[MarkD]

Counting King and Sanders as if they are Democrats (because they caucus with them and very, very often vote with them), there are 25 Democratic-held seats up and only 8 Republican seats up in 2018. I think it as inevitable that Democrats will have a net loss of seats.

[MarkD]

Wagner is a good fit for the St. Louis suburbs that Blunt cratered in (he only won St. Charles County by 7! That's unheard of for an incumbent R), but she's persona non-grata among the Trumpists after her endorsement flip. I have my doubts she'd get a clear primary, and would probably lose one to a decently funded opponent.

Huh? What? How do you figure? Do you mean only had 7 more votes than Kander in the entire St. Charles County? No way. Do you mean only 7 more votes than Kander in the MO-2 portion of St. Charles County (which would mean getting 15,701 more votes than Kander in the MO-3 portion of the county)?
I have not yet gotten the precinct-level report of the St. Charles County vote, so I haven't yet been able to analyze them like I have analyzed the St. Louis County precinct data. The latter is online but the former I have to buy from the County Election Authority's office.
Kander beat Blunt by about 6,800 votes in the MO-2 portion of St. Louis County, so I know what you mean about Blunt in THOSE suburbs, but I cannot fathom how you could say that about St. Charles County (my home for most of the first 40 years of my life).

[MarkD]

Having a "%" behind a number makes a big difference in how we interpret a statistic!

Like I said, I have not yet bought the precinct-level report from the Election Authority's office, but when I do, I will analyze at the difference between MO-2 and MO-3 (in every race). As I vaguely recall from my analysis of the 2012 results, there was not much of a difference between the level of support for the GOP ticket between the two districts.