Jeff Flake in Trouble

[BuckeyeNut]

Flake was one of the most anti-Trump incumbents this past cycle and seems to be in danger of a serious primary by current Arizona Treasurer, Jeff DeWit. Remington Research has DeWit leading Flake by 9%, while Flake and Ward are tied.

Also, Flake only has $594,000 on hand.

[Mr. Reactionary]

2 years out = junk poll

[BuckeyeNut]

The poll should be taken with a pound of salt, but it isn't good, and the truly bad thing is his CoH.

[Nyvin]

Well, it usually is the "moderates" who get wiped out when a President is unpopular for some reason.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

The fact that Dewit's lead only drops by 1 point when Ward is added to the mix has to be really worrying for Flake.

[SATW]

Good. Hopefully good Flake goes bye bye in a primary.

[DavidB.]

Good. Hopefully good Flake goes bye bye in a primary.

The thing is that a Ward/Sinema race in 2018 would be a very likely Dem pickup if Trump is unpopular.

[Pandaguineapig]

He might be better off forgoing reelection and throwing his support behind Mcsally, Reagan, or some other establishment republican

[Heisenberg]

He might be better off forgoing reelection and throwing his support behind Mcsally, Reagan, or some other establishment republican

McSally or Brnovich would be good candidates. Please, not Reagan. She is pro-choice and has even taken money from pro-choice interest groups.
I don't think Ward is a good primary challenger to Flake, for some reason, she just doesn't provide the contrast against him like she did against McCain. I also think Flake is favored in the general if he makes it out of the primary. As for Sinema running, she used to be VERY liberal in the legislature, then moved to the center, and now, with her district swinging and trending hard left in 2016 (McCain probably inflated the 08/12 PVI), she seems to be moving back to the left, as she voted against Pelosi from the left last week.

[SCNCmod]

Flake is one of the few Republican Senators I like (although for numbers... I hope a Dem takes that seat)

[SATW]

Good. Hopefully good Flake goes bye bye in a primary.

The thing is that a Ward/Sinema race in 2018 would be a very likely Dem pickup if Trump is unpopular.

If it's only Ward challenging him then I won't back either and support whichever crappy candidate wins the R nom in the general. If it's a real challenge from a sane person, I'll back that person

[Maxwell]

The fundraising numbers seems to imply that he might retire.

[BuckeyeNut]

The fundraising numbers seems to imply that he might retire.

An open seat in Arizona would be lovely.

[I’m not Stu]

I want Flake to win.

[heatcharger]

The fundraising numbers seems to imply that he might retire.

An open seat in Arizona would be lovely.

Sadly, I prefer to keep Flake rather than running the risk of having another right-wing monster like Kelli Ward win.

[(Still) muted by Kalwejt until March 31]

Flake is fiscally hawkish, but insufferable in most other respects. I support a strong Ward primary challenge.

[(Still) muted by Kalwejt until March 31]

Also, Flake is an objectively weak candidate, winning his Senate seat by what is in the grand scheme of AZ politics a squeaker.

[I’m not Stu]

Arizona does seem to have the highest potential to turn into the Delaware-2010 or Nevada-2010 where Republicans basically just gift Democrats a free speech by running a loon. Ward fits that bill, and so does Dewit.

Who's worse, Ward or DeWit?

[Kingpoleon]

Good. Hopefully good Flake goes bye bye in a primary.

The thing is that a Ward/Sinema race in 2018 would be a very likely Dem pickup if Trump is unpopular.

If it's only Ward challenging him then I won't back either and support whichever crappy candidate wins the R nom in the general. If it's a real challenge from a sane person, I'll back that person

Jan Brewer is the best chance of holding the seat after Flake, followed by Ben Quayle. Anyone else would certainly lose to Sinema or Kirkpatrick.

I'm a bit surprised you dislike Flake. Is it solely because of him being NeverTrump and too pro-Cuba for you?

[Nyvin]

The fundraising numbers seems to imply that he might retire.

Holy crap that would be awesome!